Wednesday, October 29, 2008

Finale

Funny, really, that a post that will live here on this site for eternity, or at least until the robots take over, is a post laughing at how Michigan's ".edu" page links to a...suggestive...adult site. I actually might take that down, now that I think about it, so that anyone who stumbles here on a dead blogroll link doesn't get the wrong impression. It will be the first post that I've ever deleted - not that I haven't wanted to in the past.

205 posts, dating back to January 27th. Actually, if I could, I would probably delete that post too. It's funny how much the style has changed over the short time of 9 months. I'm sorta glad nobody was around to read it. We made it up to #17 in NCAA blog rankings, according to Ballhype, although I'm quite sure that our traffic numbers - about 200 visitors/day at our peak - wouldn't reflect that high a number.

My first post started out with an observation: "it ain't easy." It's still not. I'd like to say that I've improved, my writing certainly has, but it's still not easy coming up with stuff to write about in the Sahara desert that is the off season. Add in the fact that we all have real lives with real issues, and you get the point. I didn't realize how true that first statement would turn out to be.

Something else I didn't realize when I started was how addictive it would be. How much fun it would be to see your sitemeter rise as more people click on your stuff. How cool it is to see something you wrote show up on EDSBS or Mgoblog or even AOL. I never dreamed that, during this disaster of a Michigan season, I would be having the most fun I think I've ever had being a college football fan. That's why I'm not going to stop.

This blog has always operated under the guise of being a "Big Ten" blog with no particular affiliation to any team. Anyone who has read it on a consistant basis, however, has probably found this to be patently untrue. The main reason for my not starting a "Michigan" blog when I began was the fact that there were already so many very good ones out there. Mgoblog is the Gorilla not just of Michigan, but of all NCAA blogs. RBUAS, Genuinely Sarcastic, Varsity Blue...hell, Michigan has a swimming blog. A blog. About Michigan swimming. What chance did I have of getting any of that market share? So I wrote thinly veiled Michigan posts. Even my non-Michigan posts came from a Michigan fan's worldview, which is a beast unto itself.

Now I'm proud to say that Champ and I will be writing for one of those Michigan blogs that I deemed as "too big and powerful" to go directly up against when I first started this thing. We will be writing at Maize 'n Brew, and I sincerely hope that you will come along for the ride. There is virtually no way you've stumbled upon this site having not been aware of MnB, but there it is anyways. I don't expect my writing style to change much, and frankly, I don't expect the content to change much either. I will still write crazy Northwestern posts, and I'll still have Spartstravaganza day despite the fact that they let me down on the whole tailspin thing.

This is probably getting close to the dreaded "tldnr" but there is no way this site even registers the tiniest of blips in this 'sphere without the help of the BTB group, and specifically the boys at Black Heart Gold Pants. Also those people who, somehow, found this site and commented. That was fun.

Come join me and Champ over at Maize 'n Brew. I promise it will be a good time, even if you hate Michigan.

Go Blue.

And thanks.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

The Easy Way Out


This hasn't been a particularly fun football season.

It has had its moments, sure, but on the whole, it's not fun to watch your team get beaten every week in new and exciting ways. Combine losing, which sucks, with the fact that every team that beats you has been waiting for years to do so, and you get what most Michigan fans are going through. No amount of "what about the previous six years?" will rub out the Spartan's smug grin. No amount of "winningest college football program" will stop the text messaging from random "friends" who probably wouldn't even be talking to you except that you're a Michigan fan and it's your turn in the barrel. Even my NFL team of choice (Colts), who for so long could be relied on to numb (slightly) any Michigan loss, kind of suck this year.

I commiserated with a Notre Dame fan this weekend, who assured me that "things would get better." Yeesh.

I thought (and said so in print) that this Michigan team would finally put all the pieces together against Michigan State. Their relative weakness played into our relative strength, Michigan seemed to have found something with Minor, and on the whole the team appeared ready to take a step forward and make 60 minutes of football happen. They didn't; It didn't; My bad.

As a fan, there is only so much you can do. You can whine, you can stare at a blank computer screen's blinking cursor for an hour, you can break things. I've done all three over the course of this season. I have nothing to show for it except a few posts that never got posted (thankfully), an annoyed girlfriend, and a cracked screen on my cell phone. Those are the culminated results of my being a Michigan fan this sesaon. Hardly impressive.

I am not an apologist. There are certainly things that I wished were handled differently with the switch to Rodriguez, and there are probably more things that I wish were handled better. The easy way out, if you're a Michigan fan, is to blame the entire thing on the coaching staff. The 3rd and long = Death is certainly Schafer's fault. The offensive woes are purely due to Rodriguez's stubborn insistence on imposing his offensive scheme.

I get that. I know that, for those who love Michigan, this season is almost impossibly hard to take. As a result, you see a certain distancing by those who love this team. By blaming the coaching staff, you can say "It's not my team; those aren't my guys." It's a survival technique. Most of the Michigan blogosphere has been resoundingly against employing this technique because the preponderance of evidence suggests that the team will, eventually, be very good with this exact coaching staff in place. I fall into that camp. However, it is hard to begrudge anyone for doing something that simply allows them to get through the day; week; month without feeling too down. This season, if it makes you feel better to blame the new coaching staff, just go ahead and do it - as long as you realize what it is: a survival technique aimed at distancing yourself from the program so that you don't hurt as much when they lose.

You're taking the easy way out, and that's well and good. In fact, there are several message boards around these internets that will allow you to vent all you want about how things should be different, and how we'd be 7-1 with Les Miles and his giant balls.

For those not taking the easy way out, it's going to be rough. I don't see this team winning many more games. In fact, I don't really see this team winning any more games. My advice is to turn off your cell phone, stay the hell away from the internet, and go do something outside. Watch Michigan play on Saturday, and afterwards, do something fun.

If that sounds hollow, it's because it is.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Guarantee Games

[ed. - I was writing this in an airport, and hit the post button right as the last of my flight was boarding. As such, "guarantee" was misspelled in the title. Thanks for letting me know, jerks.]

All bets are off if Nick Sheridan sees significant playing time. What is significant? Let's say...2 drives worth. If Nick Sheridan plays 2 drives worth of football, then all bets are off.

What an odd way to start a post

Agreed. But when you're going out on an already shaky limb, it's best to be sure that the precious little support you do have is firmly entrenched. If the limb is broken to begin with, you can't be at fault when it collapses.

Still not getting it - despite aid of cliche metaphor

Ok, fine. Here we go: Michigan is going to beat Michigan State tomorrow. I'm saying it, I'm putting it on record, and I'm putting it in print. I'll say it again in italics, for emphasis: Michigan is going to beat Michigan State tomorrow.

Any particular reason?

I thought that despite the 2nd half implosion, there were several things that Michigan could take away from that Penn State game that were positive. First, you had the unveiling of Minor at tailback, who (as Champ pointed out) had Anthony Scirrotto firmly on his ass being dragged downfield at several points during the game. McGuffie's done a lot of great things with the ball this season, but gaining those crucial extra 3 yards after contact hasn't been one of them. Forget all the BS "Minor runs with anger!" and "Minor runs with purpose!" type exclamations - Minor gets yards after contact, and when your offense struggles with things like "positive yardage" this is a huge, huge asset.

Ok, so you've got a guy who can run the ball. Still not seeing it.

In baseball, it's often the sign of a pitcher's command and "stuff" when he starts throwing first pitch strikes. If a pitcher, especially a young pitcher, can gain an 0-1 count, it allows him to do things with the following pitches that he couldn't do if he had thrown a first pitch ball. Alternatively, a first pitch strike puts the batter on his heels, so to speak, and in instant "protect the plate" mode, lest he go down 0-2.

I hate baseball

None withstanding, when Michigan's offense gains positive yards on first down, it's like throwing that first pitch strike. Go back and look at some of Mgoblog's UFR's. When Michigan picks up positive yardage on first down, the result is a more opened playbook. The defense can't key off on one or two plays that they know are coming in a 2nd and long situation. Just like a young pitcher, this young offense is borderline effective (gasp!) when they gain yards on first down. Now, typically, this wouldn't be something worth following, as good offenses usually get positive yards on first down, but, uh, this isn't a good offense. To wit: in the first half against Penn State, the UFR shows only 3 plays that went for negative yardage. Only one of those plays was on first down. In the 2nd half when Michigan was totally shut-down? There were a total of 6 plays that went for negative yardage, 3 of which were on 1st down. Oh - and Brian stopped charting with 13 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. First half: limited loss of yardage, especially on first down. Result: 17 points. Second half: Lots of negative yardage, more on first down. Result: 0 points. Positive yards, especially on first down, is the lifeblood of this team.

What makes you think that "first half Michigan" will come out all game? Seems to me that there is a good chance that "second half Michigan" is just as plausible.

The short anwer to this is that yes, there is a chance that second half Michigan will rear its ugly head. However, given the data that I've looked at, I think there are several very good factors that will allow first half Michigan to rule the day.

First, Michigan State is allowing just over 6 yards per carry on the season. Combine this with the fact that Michigan has, apparently, just "found" a running game with Minor, and you've got a combination that, in my opinion, leads to positive yards, especially on first down when Rodriguez is presumably going to run the ball with the zone-read-stretch business. Michigan won't score on every drive, but I think that negative plays will be extremely limited given MSU's relative weakness on run-defense.

Ok, so maybe you'll score points, but last time I checked, Michigan's defense wasn't exactly shut down.

True. But look at how Michigan State gets their yards: Javon Ringer runs into the line for about 3 yards, and Brandon Hoyer gets lucky throwing into double coverage. That may be an exaggeration, but Brain Hoyer isn't really that good. He is just shy of 50% completion percentage, and has thrown 4 INT's. Ringer will probably get his yards by carrying the ball 40+ times for 3 yards a pop, and that will probably lead to some long scoring drives. If Michigan's linebackers continue to arm tackle the air surrounding ball carriers, this could be more, but this is the exact offense that Michigan's defense is good at stopping. With Ringer doing his thing, the MSU offense is capable of moving the ball, but when the offense gets into situations in which Ringer doesn't factor as being a threat, they suck. Michigan should be able to put them in those situations, especially early.

One thing I am scared of is the screen game. Michigan has been susceptible to screens going for long TD's all season, and I somehow doubt that D'Antonio has missed that in film...

You still haven't really convinced me

That's because I think this thing is going to be close. Brian at Mgo put into print a feeling that you get sometimes when you're looking at data. It's a "wow, I guess I really have to think this, don't I?" The answer is that, if the data points that way, yes, you do.

Of course, the problem is that data relies on past performance, and that predicting on data alone relies on those past performances manifesting themselves in the current game. This is not always the case.

The bottom line is that I believe that Michigan has a good shot at winning this football game. Given the data I've looked at, I believe Michigan will win this football game.

Whatever dude. You're crazy

Probably.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Roundtable Time

This week's roundtables are kindly hosted by Nittany White Out, a Penn State blog of questionable morals and talent. In other words, my kind of blog.

On to the questions!

We're approaching week 9 now, are you pleasantly surprised or already waiting for basketball season?

I am, actually, pleasantly surprised by the amount of fight that the Big Ten has shown. After another ho-hum slate of OOC games, the Big Ten has represented well. Penn State and Ohio State are both obviously in the top ten, Michigan State (despite whipping) is still a formidable team, and Minnesota and Northwestern have been pleasant surprises for all. Really, Michigan is a huge disappointment in terms of a "hur-hur B10 rules!" kind of argument, but that's about it. Top to bottom, the Big Ten is a competitive league with some teams that, given the right circumstances, could sneak into the title game (I'm looking at you, Ohio State).

Describe one specific play from this season you would alter for a different outcome if you had the chance to.

It's hard to determine one specific play that has determined a whole lot. to single one play out is to downplay the significance of the other plays that got to that situation. I suppose, if I were to single out one play, I'd like to take back a personal foul on the punt return during the latest Michigan v. Penn State game. It probably wouldn't have mattered given what happened in the 2nd half, but that late 2nd half TD for PSU hurt in a variety of ways. I guess I'd have liked to have made them work a little harder for it.

That said, it doesn't necessarily change the outcome of the game - as soon as the threat of Threet keeping the ball disappeared, so did the offense - but rather it would have made me happy going into halftime instead of nervous. Happy B2 is much more fun that nervous B2.

How could it (#2) possibly impact the way your season is going?

It could have improved the short-term relationship between myself and my girlfriend. And her family. And the dogs.

Big Ten player you just can't stand, why?

Without delving too far into the vitriol for which this medium is known, I am very scared of Terrelle Pryor.

Boo'ing your own team (we've seen quite a lot of this across the Big Ten this season), your feelings on this.

This question seems an awful lot like a veiled shot at Michigan, but whatevs. I don't boo, and I will tell people in my immediate vicinity to stop booing, but for me that's where it ends. I'm not going to crusade against it or anything, because there will be dumbasses everywhere, and an angry dumbass is in no way ready to be converted to the patient-type. I'm more of a "thousand yard stare" type of loser anyways, and too inconsolable to really get worked up enough to "stop" the booing.

Number of beers or alcoholic drinks consumed by week 8 (or a good estimate)

Drinking leads to all sorts of socially deviant behavior, and is a sign of poor breeding. For shame, NWO, for shame.

Most annoying commercial seen this season

"They're heeeeeeeerrreeeeeeee"

"Frank TV, vurry funny"

Your prediction for the next coaching change in the Big Ten (Joe Tiller exempt)

Wisconsin will have a new coach before too long. Mark it.

Wednesday, October 22, 2008

Shenanigans!

On the road this week. Light posting. Apologies.

Tuesday, October 21, 2008

Seed Sown

Step One: Get Blown Out at Home in Biggest Game of the Year.

Step Two: Lose to a Michigan team that you are perfectly capable of beating handily.

No, this is not turning into a Michigan State blog, but given the coverage last Friday during Spartstravaganza, I would be remiss not to offer a followup. It won't be long, mostly because I have to catch a plane to Denver in an hour, but here it is:

Jim Tressel could have hung 70 if he had wanted to. The Spartan's season, the new coaching staff's legacy, and G0EL Pete's liver hang in the balance. Should MSU come and lay an egg again Michigan this weekend, it's same old Sparty time. You see - it's not necessarily the fact that they lost to Ohio State, but rather what they do this week that will make the difference for this year's Spartan football team.

Sometimes, football exists only in the football box. You hit, you pass, you run, and you go home. Sometimes, however, football gets out of its box and applies itself to life. I'm not particularly good at illustrating when that happens, but I will say this: This week, Michigan State gets to prove that they can overcome adversity. They haven't in the past - it's up to this coaching staff to banish those ghosts.

Vince Lombardi once said "it's not whether you fall, it's whether you get back up."

Spartans, it's your turn.

High Hopes

Somewhere, someone is saying "what a stupid title, look at your team." I have looked at my team sir, and I'm not changing the title because it works on multiple levels.
Encumbered forever by desire and ambition, there's a hunger still unsatisfied Our weary eyes still stray to the horizon, though down this road we've been so many times.


Yep, we're going down that road, we're going to use song lyrics (albeit good ones) to convey a point. Why? Because it's apt, that's why.

Saturday's contest at Happy Valley was a stunningly effective synopsis of where this football team is right now. To boil it down as succinctly as possible, I 100% believe the following:
When this football team executes, it is capable of beating ANYONE in the country. When this football team fails to execute, it is capable of losing to ANYONE in the country.

That is where we are right now. For 26 minutes on Saturday, a 2-4 Michigan team that was supposed to be a sacrificial lamb for the homecoming crowd in State College, PA came out and punched the #3 Nittany Lions square in the mouth. They outplayed them on both sides of the ball and looked good doing it. 1st quarter stats? 12 minutes of possession, 189 yards. Dominance. With a group of 18 and 19 year-old kids, a patched together O-line, and a suddenly awakened Brandon Minor, the Michigan offense controlled the football game. Penn State was damn lucky to put up 14 points in the first half. A missed tackle and two bone-headed penalties let a solid football team back into a game at home, something we simply do not have the luxury of doing right now. Michigan's struggles came not from being thoroughly outmatched by a superior Penn State team. Rather, as has been the case more often than not this year, Michigan's wounds were self-inflicted. From the first PSU TD to the game-turning safety and subsequent kick out of bounds, too many unforced errors were made to overcome. Penn State then did what good teams do, and put the game out of reach in emphatic fashion.

Once Threet was forced out of the game, all of us in the Michigan section looked at each other with an expression that is sadly all too familiar to those of us of the Maize and Blue persuasion. Like when Hart went down in '05 or Henne in '07, we knew we were in trouble. This team is too young and too inexperienced and too thin at positions like, say, quarterback, to be able to overcome losses like that against a team like Penn State. What happened happened, the Penn State fans rejoiced as though the last 12 years never took place, and we walked out of the stadium shaking our heads at what could've possibly been. If I could change one call, I would've slammed into the line and punted instead of letting Sheridan drop back on 3rd and 20 from the shadow of our own goal-post, but that's neither here nor there at this point.

Quick aside: Penn State is a good football team, don't get me wrong, but I don't walk away from Saturday thinking that they're a top 3 team, and I don't walk away from Saturday thinking they'll beat Ohio State in Columbus. But back to the topic at hand...

This is where the hopes come in, this is where I can sit back and look and say, "you know what, this team is going to be good, damn good in fact." It might not be this year, it might not even be next year, but this staff, and this system, will succeed. Seven games into a miserable year, the improvement is noticeable, the effectiveness of a trimmed down Rodriguez offensive system is apparent, the adjustments were there, the team clicked and moved the ball and looked good doing it. They brought forth an effective gameplan that cut out many of the ineffective behind the LOS passes that have hindered this offense earlier this year. Michigan powered between the tackles, they threw to the tight ends, they used Steven Threet's legs to hold the Penn State D in check, and they looked downfield in the passing game. The execution, when there, is something to see, especially when you factor in the youth and current make-up of the team. The mistakes are confounding and extremely frustrating, but they are fixable.

I walk away from Saturday knowing the following:

1. Threet is a capable quarterback in this offense. Ideal? No. But he's been effective when healthy and has more than 0.2 seconds to make throws. He was surgical in the first half, and I believe had he not gotten dinged up, would've continued marching the football... Once he stopped keeping the ball on the read-option (presumably from aforementioned dinged-upness), the run game started to sputter because the D could simply key on Minor.

2. We have no depth at QB. God love Nick Sheridan, he has been thrown into some of the most horrifying situations this season, but he simply doesn't have the same ability to move the football like Threet does. Threet with backups in Beaver and Forcier next season is not a bad thing in the least.

3. Taking points one and two, we're in a huge world of hurt if Threet isn't ready to go this upcoming Saturday. Given Sheridan's struggles in moving the offense... and I HATE to be this guy, but perhaps if Threet can't play, do we give Feagin an opportunity? I'm not the coach, I don't see the practices, but I wouldn't be upset to see him get a chance if Threet (God forbid) can't go.

4. Evan Royster is a heck of a tailback, tremendous patience and some good ol' fashioned toughness and speed. Hats off to him.

5. Brandon Minor finally put all of those flashes of brilliance into something consistent and sustained, and holy hell was it impressive. Anthony Scirrotto spent most of his day on his back and being carried downfield.

6. The defense picked up the blitizing and was more effective at getting into the backfield... BUT, this defense still gives up too many big plays (this is nothing new) and misses too many tackles. I also do not understand the reasoning behind only playing three down-linemen when we're so loaded on the D-line.

7. I was wrong about this defense in the preseason. They're capable, and have been put in a number of terrible situations over the season... but they aren't the shutdown unit capable of carrying an offense that is either completely on or completely off. The safety play hasn't been good enough, and frankly, neither has the play of our corners. We're so concerned about not giving up the deep ball, that we let teams get 10-12 out routes at will... sometimes we're getting caught in zones

8. I'm glad we have Rich Rodriguez as our football coach.

Penn State walked out of that stadium Saturday with the promise of an unforgettable season still in tow, their fanbase not quite sure what to do with themselves. Michigan walked out knowing they had a top ranked team on the ropes at home and flittered the opportunity away... but they walk away knowing that even now, they can play with anybody. It's not a victory, and for most that means it's not good enough, but right now, that's what we've got, and that's what we have to build on.

Bring on Sparty... and GO BLUE!