Big Ten Bloggers Preseason Awards Show

A few days ago, an email flitted across my screen saying that Lake the Posts (friend [Ed - only friend, judging by recent events], Northwestern blog, good looking chap) was putting on preseason awards based on votes culled from the loose conglomeration known as "The Big Ten Bloggers." Round one would consist of our predictions for final standings, with all-Big-Ten awards to follow. The impetus for creating the awards was to prove that we, the intelligent bloggers of the Big Ten, would do a better job than the MSM at picking final standings, most notably concerning Northwestern. Well...the Northwestern bit didn't quite play out - and the MSM thing remains to be seen, but cruise on over to LtP for a complete wrap up. Notice that we're not in any outlier catagory - which is good. It's not our intensions to ruffle any feathers around here, now is it Champ? [Ed - more on this later]

For those disinclined to link out, here is how the conglomorate voted:

1 - Ohio State
2 - Penn State
3 - Wisconsin
4 - Illinois
5 - Michigan State
6 - Michigan
7 - Iowa
8 - Purdue
9 - Northwestern
10 - Indiana
11 - Minnesota

A pretty fair list, all things considered. According to LtP:

I was surprised at the wide disparity in voting. It isn't often teams get votes ranging 8 spots as a few did, including Northwestern. I was surprised by the Illini and Michigan State outcomes. I haven't bought in to the fact that Dufrene will keep "Ds" in check like Mendenhall for the Illini and also the on-field leadership of J. Leman is a bigger impact from a chemistry standpoint than I think non-Illini followers realize. For Sparty, I simply don't believe they have proven they know how to finish and while Ringer is legit, the loss of Devin Thomas removes an electrifying wrinkle that kept teams off-balance. That being said, my Michigan pick at 3 is completely irrational and goes against my better judgment. Perhaps I'm trying to hype them as I believe, truly believe, we will beat them in the Big House this year and who wants to win against Michigan and have it be a "down" year for them?

Beyond Ohio State, this was a crap shoot. I'm sure that all the BTB will be dissecting their picks today, and it will be interesting to see how the voting went. I know Nittany White Out already has their picks up, and I believe there was some sort of disagreement betwixt us. When I got a text from Champ saying "rant up" I went immediately to the basement to wait out the storm. I should make it clear that Beauford made the picks that went into the voting, with some help from Champ. So the following are not Champ's picks, FWIW.

Beauford's Picks:

1 - Ohio State
Sometimes, stereotypes exist because they're true. Sometimes, the majority is right because they're right - and there's no sense in playing the contrarian. In this case, Ohio State has, by far, the most talented team of anybody in the Big Ten and, IMO, the only team capable of competing for a National Title. On paper - which is the only thing we have to go on at this point - Ohio State should go undefeated in conference. I haven't done the Ridiculously Early Preview on them yet - but I would imagine that "trouble games" exist at Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Do they play Wisconsin this year?

2 - Wisconsin
This was a toss up between Penn State and Wisconsin. My reason for choosing Wisconsin was really foolishly simple: I compared schedules. Penn State's gotta play @ Wisky, @ Ohio State, while Wisconsin gets those games at home. The toughest road test the Badgers are going to face is probably @ Michigan, and with the season Michigan's predicted to have, that formarly ensconsed "L" becomes a toss-up leaning towards Badgers. When the dust settles, the most interesting game in the Big Ten this year may very well be that Oct. 11th rumble between Penn State and Wisconsin.

3 - Penn State
See above

4 - Michigan
5 - Michigan State
6 - Northwestern

Here's my rationale: Michigan State is probably better than Michigan this year. On paper. I know that I said that paper is the only thing we have to go on, but that doesn't apply for Michigan State. You see, we make up the rules as we go here... The problem is that Michigan State is still Michigan State, despite hiring a coach that looks like Belechik and glares alot. The end result for the Spartans last year was...the same as it always is: one game within .500, a demoralizing loss to Big Brother, and a bowl defeat. Every year I pen Michigan State as being vastly improved, capable of challenging for the Big Ten, and probable winners against Michigan. Every year, I'm elated at the results (which are pretty much the exact opposite of my predictions). This year, every one of the aforementioned rings true. They should be improved (see Hoyer and Receiving Corp), they should present as much a challenge to Ohio State as anybody, and they should beat Michigan. But I'm tired of getting burned on that - so until they prove to me otherwise, Michigan State will be a middle of the road Big Ten team incapable of beating quality opponents in conference. I'm begging the Spartans to prove me wrong.

Call it homerism for my honorary favorite team this year, or call it a favor to this blog's only friend Lake the Posts, but I am buying the idea that this year's Wildcats can make some noise. For many of the reasons Champ outlined in his preview, I don't think they will challenge for the title, but I do expect them to beat some teams that they traditionally don't (including Michigan?). They've got to get better at scoring points, and they've got to shore up their defense, especially line-play. Hopefully two new coordinators can accomplish that. Northwestern gets themselves bowl eligible, and there is much celebrating in Evanston this year.

Which brings us to Michigan. Here is why I believe Michigan is not this year's Notre Dame:

1) Notre Dame has been mediocre-to-bad the past decade. Sure, they had a good stretch there with Brady Quinn's senior season, but a closer look at said season reveals a lot of smoke and mirrors. Their schedule that year was brutally easy, with losses coming to Michigan and USC - the two quality opponents they faced. The schallacking they took at the hands of LSU in the Sugar Bowl was a surprise to no one paying attention. Every time Notre Dame has had to reload, they've failed miserably.

Michigan, on the other hand, has been good-to-great the past decade, proving time and again that the talent that Carr recruits is capable of stepping in and filling holes left by departing players. When Henson jilted the team in favor of Baseball, and a half-cocked Navarre had to step in, Michigan still went 8-4. Navarre ended up breaking several passing records en route to a career only remembered as mediocre. When he was done, it was Henne for 4 years. The line of skill positions that have follwed the "had success, graduated/drafted, then been replaced with success" time-line is non-stop. The hiccup with an unseasoned Navarre is the best example that I can think of of a player stepping into a skill position and sucking for a year. Receivers, tailbacks, and (by and large) quarterbacks have been one star after another for as long as I can remember. Non-skill positions tend to be harder to judge, but even when Michigan has had to replace entire defenses, the results have been bowl-eligible 8 to 9 win teams. This has not been the case at Notre Dame: see Jimmy Clausen's efforts this past year, or their attempts at replacing their running back who bolted early. If Lloyd Carr was coaching this team, you would have them penned for another 8 win season. Just because Rodriguez doesn't have the exact personel to run "his offense" doesn't mean the talent isn't there to run "an offense" capable of winning.

Plain and simple: Michigan has proven they can weather the storm when it comes to replacing graduating/drafted players. Notre Dame has not.

2) Notre Dame's coaching has been suspect at best. Despite the blinding light off of Weis's multiple super-bowl rings (and the subsequent reflection from the fried chicken grease on his chin), the man has done virtually nothing in terms of beating top-notch oppoenents during his tenure at ND. He came to ND unproven, and is rapidly proving himself to be a bad head coach. Rodriguez may be untested at Michigan, but he is at least a proven collegiate head coach with a track record of success.

3) The cupboard is not bare at UM. When Rodriguez took over the program at WVU, he was working with athletes who were mostly passed on by big-time programs. It took him a few years to build up the base of players that he could work with, which explains his dismal first-year records. I will wager that the level of athlete that he is inheriting at UM - previous starter or not - is far higher than what he inherited at WVU. Thus, I believe that this team will be ready to compete at a higher level than many think this year.

4) Michigan had moderate to great success running zone-left long bomb offense. They never had to get tricky because they didn't have to. Now, with the departures on offense and defense, Michigan has to get tricky, and they have the best coach in the game at doing that. Combine Rodriguez's willingness to run plays not designed around a punishing left tackle with the fact that nobody has any film or any clue about what this team is going to look like, and you get a lot of surprised opponents. I fully expect Michigan to lose their fair share of ball games this year, but I also expect that they will catch quite a few teams with their pants down. Everybody and their mother knew what ND was going to come with last year - and ND played the part beautifully. Nobody knows what Michigan's coming with this year, which is an advantage.

5) We've got Vegas on our side! The folks who are actually paid to make predictions with millions riding on them say that there are only 9 teams with better odds at a National Championship than Michigan. That's right folks, they said National.

Also - Michigan gets Sparty, Northwestern, and Illinois at home.

7 - Illinois

Speaking of Illinois, I think that they will be a dangerous team, but that the loss of Mendenhall is going to hurt a ton. Juice can't throw; it's that simple. If the Illini can't produce a consistantly awesome rusher to replace Mendenhall, then I can't see how that offense is going to score points. Mix that with an already shaky defense losing an awesome 'backer, and a competent safety (Kevin Mitchell), and throw in a dose of suspect in game coaching of the Zooker, and you get a 7th place Big Ten team. The Illini may still have some shine to them from last year's Rose Bowl team, and I think the BTB final vote reflects that shine. The Illini won't suck this year - but they will take a step backwards.

8 - Purdue
There isn't much to say here. Tiller's last season, and "meh" collection of players coming of a mediocre season last year, etc. Purdue will beat the low-end Big 10 teams, and will lose to the top-end. In full disclosure, there wasn't a whole lot going on mentally when I slotted Purdue in at 8th.

9 - Iowa
With apologies to BHGP, I don't see this year's Iowa squad as contending for anything this year. Depending on their OOC results, they could get themselves bowl eligible, and (in hindsight) are probably deserving of a better showing than 9th.

10 - Minnesota
They were a frieght train of suck last year, and I don't expect this year to be much different. Next year, you could see them sneaking up into the middle of the conference given the mildly awesome level of recruiting they've been able to sustain. But not this year.

11 - Indiana
Loss of top flight talent? Check
Potential loss of field-equalizing QB? Check
Last place finish in the Big 10? Check


Wrap Up

We weren't really that much different than the combined results. We seem to be in disagreement about Illinois and Michigan, but other than those two, we seem to be right on the mainstream money. Tomorrow, I'll have a post comparing our little vote to those of the MSM and preview mags.