Michigan: The Preview

Champ came through in the clutch last week - delivering his opus on Michigan a mere two days before taking the plunge into holy matrimony. As a participant of the ceremonies, let me say that it takes a man of extraordinary fortitude to convince his bride that Led Zeppelin is indeed "first dance" worthy. Champ pulled it off; the legend grows.


It is surprising, sitting back having completed the preview, that this one turned out to be the hardest (thus far) to write. I thought to myself going into this that surely my knowledge of Michigan's roster, returning players, and traditions would allow me to crank out this post in a matter of 15 minutes. I was wrong primarily because nobody, and I mean nobody, knows what Michigan is going to look like when they take the field against Utah. Will they come out doing a classic run and shoot? Will they be running a spread out pro-formation? Will the quarterback be wearing pants?

Usually, these questions have been answered by years and years of tradition mostly involving off tackle running on 3rd and 12. The questions were slightly less...shall we say...large?...in scope. They were not "what the hell are they going to do on offense." Rather, they were "how are these next batch of stars going to function?" This season, they don't have stars, they don't have off-tackle runs (well...maybe a few) and they most importantly don't have Lloyd Carr walking the sidelines in his ball cap with his hands in his back pockets. That, I suppose, is the crux of why this particular preview is/was so difficult to write. Everything I knew about Michigan football came while Lloyd was in charge. Now, I start from scratch.


How I wish...How I wish you were here...

One thing the media will harp on that is ridiculously off base:
The lack of the true spread quarterback is something that you will not forget unless Michigan starts rolling up 500+ yards per game under Threet, a dubious prospect under even the best conditions. People seem to have the impression that Rodriguez is a one trick pony, and without Pat White mounted firmly in the saddle, his offense will be a complete fail. I do not agree. There is no way that Rodriguez has gotten to the pinnacle of college coaching without knowing a little something about everything. He is going to play the hand that he has been dealt - and if that means running Threet in a pro-style offense, then that's what he will do.

Direct from the horses mouth:

"Any coach will tell you, whether you have extremely talented guys or not, when you don't have experience at that position, it's cause for concern. So, there's going to be concern for us at any position that (we) don't have experience, in particular, at quarterback. We don't have anybody that's taken a snap in college football. So going through spring practice, we've got to have that in mind, and certainly as we prepare for the fall, we've got to have that in mind.

"You know there's no substitute for experience, but those guys are working hard, they're learning, and we're going to have to fit our offense to whoever our quarterback's skill sets are. And that I don't yet until I go through practice. But it's a concern. I don't want people to think it ain't a concern because it is – you don't have anybody that's taken a snap. But those guys will work hard and we'll try to get'em ready."

That doesn't sound to me like a guy who is convinced that he's gotta have a Pat White clone to be successful. The media will harp on the fact that Threet is a ghost white statue in the pocket, and if the Michigan offense even sniffs fail at any point, their main point of blame will be the fact that Threet is not Patrick White. They should be blaming the execution of the players on the field, not the non-existence of a certain type of player at quarterback. The Michigan offense may very well fail next year, but it won't be because Rodriguez is jamming a square peg in a round hole at Quarterback.

One thing the media will completely ignore that is integral to this team's success:
This is very simple, and Champ hit it on the head. The defense will be at least above average next year, with the potential to be very good. Last season, the young unit ranked 4th in scoring and 3rd in total defense in the Big Ten. The line has gotten better, the corners are older, and the linebacking crew is raw but athletic. Add in a year of being Barwisized, and you have the potential for this defense to be shut-down. And the Wolverines are going to need it to be just that if they hope to compete. Rodriguez is lauded as an offensive mastermind, so it is fittingly ironic that his first season at Michigan will rely heavily on a stout defense to be successful.

Most important contributors on each side of the ball:

Offense: Man, I just don't know. At this point, I don't even know what the offense is going to look like, let alone who the most important contributer will be. As long as the QB puts on his pants before the game, he'll probably end up being the guy here, but really, it could be any number of players. Will McGuffie be as electric in college as he was in High School? Will Carlos Brown get the ball in space and be a little bottle of lightening? Will Threet zing in all over the field like Henne did against the Gators? Who will be the deep threat? Will Michigan even throw the ball? Ever? I just don't know.

Defense: Here, I differ from Champ. It's not so much that I disrespect line play, but I find it difficult to single out one guy on the defensive line and say "that's gonna be the guy who will make a difference." Sure, Lamarr Woodley was a freight train loaded with bee-hives against Notre Dame his senior year - almost singlehandedly destroying the willpower of the tackle, quarterback, or whoever else had the misfortune of getting in his way. Do I think that Graham could be that player? Maybe. What is more likely (and ultimately more successful) is the line gels together as a unit, and is able to wreak havoc that way. I think that is a much more reasonable goal for this unit than the one-man standout show. To put it in NFL terms, I think this unit (at their best) could more resemble the Giants in the Superbowl, rather than Dwight Freeney and a bunch of other dudes trying to occupy blockers.

I will go with Morgan Trent here for several reasons.

1) Cornerback is the most difficult position on the field to play. You are an island half the time, and the other half (if you play for Michigan...) safety help isn't coming anytime soon.

2) If there is anyone on this team with Ess-Eee-See speed, it's Morgan.

3) He's a senior, and building off a season in which he tied for 5th in passes defended with 10, intercepted 2 passes, and ran faster than Percy Harvin in the bowl game:



He is already a leader on the defense, and I really believe he will wrap up his collegiate career with style befitting the bevy of cornerbacks to have played at Michigan.

Area that scares you as an opponent:
Champ hit it on the head. I don't know if there is any one feature of this team that will scare you - rather, it's the fact that nobody knows what the hell Rodriguez is going to do, and you can't defend what you don't know. The Utah defensive coordinator is going to have fits trying to decide how to gameplan for Michigan.

Area that makes you salivate as an opponent:
If you're Penn State, or Purdue, or Northwestern this is your chance to kick Michigan in the teeth. This year is probably the worst Michigan is going to be for quite some time. I fully expect games in which Michigan just can't get the offense going, will turn the ball over 12 times, and will lose impressively. I'm ready for it. Youth be damned, it's like the whole offense is starting from scratch, and that's going to have a lot of growing pains associated with it. If I'm an opponent, I'm salivating at the rather good chance that Michigan is going to look more like this



than this



Random factor that you think will come into play this season:
How much will Rodriguez use a guy in a "Tebow" fashion? I think at this point that it's a given that Threet is the starter, but will Feagin come in to run gadget plays? What percentage of those plays will be designed runs, options, etc. Will he ever throw the ball? How Rodriguez manages the quarterback situation, which is already tenuous at best, will be the x factor of this season.

Overall Record:
Actual transcription of text messages between Champ and I as he wrote his preview:

Champ: This Michigan preview is hard to write...I hate trying to predict the records...I may cop out of that portion if you don't care
B2: No copping out! Everyone who reads us, all 12 of them, knows you're a Michigan guy. Go ahead, be optimistic. Remember you're accountable at the end of it all though...
Champ: Fair enough. It's up, and it's long.

Champ was optimistic, and he picked 9 wins. Just to be on a level field, for as long as I've known Champ, he's predicted 11 wins minimum. This year he picked 9, which makes me think that Michigan may be in trouble. I have Michigan down for a 6-6 record this year, with losses coming against the following teams:

Utah
Wisconsin
Illinois
@ Penn State
@ Purdue
@ Ohio State

You could easily substitute Utah with Michigan State, and still come out with the same record.

Please do not hang me, Michigan faithful, for this season, we know not what awaits us. This prediction is as good as dog shit on your front porch - which is to say that it stinks, and you never really wanted it anyways. We will all have a much better idea of where Michigan is going to fall when the season actually starts. For now, I guess I'm captaining up the HMS Pessimistic - all aboard for Ann Arbor.

3-5 in the Big Ten? Ouch.

Bowl Game Destination:
Michigan is an attractive bowl team, which means with 6 wins they'll end up playing in a better bowl than they should. However, it will probably be closer to Thanksgiving than New Years, and against a MAC team with a chip on their shoulder.

God knows, I hope I'm wrong. And please, Michigan fans, put down the tar and feathers. I'm only one guy...