Big Ten: Week One

Games you should probably watch:

HIGHLIGHT GAME:

Michigan State vs. Cal (8:00 PM, ABC)

This is without a doubt the premier matchup in week one for the Big Ten. Historically, this is an odd game to call. On the one hand, Big Ten teams have an abysmal record when traveling west of the footprint. On the other, Michigan State has a great track record of beating teams early in the season, only to completely implode, leaving a greenish stain on the carpet where once a #14 ranked team stood. Take a look:

2005: Michigan State starts 4-0, loses to Michigan in the 5th game, finishes season 5-6.

2006: Michigan State starts 3-0, including a win at Pitt, loses to ND, finishes season 4-8.

2007: Michigan State starts 4-0, loses to Wisky in the 5th game, finishes season 7-6.

The trend here is a fast start followed by a rapid decline. MSU always starts strong, but will it be enough to beat Cal? Once again, take a look:

QUARTERBACK:

Hoyer vs. Longshore

Both have nearly identical passing efficiencies, completing nearly 60% of their passes. Hoyer threw for more yards last year (~2700 vs. ~2500), had more TD's (20 to 16), and fewer INTS (11 to 13). Oh, and remember Drew Stanton, the QB Spartan nation fell in love with as the scrappy come from behind winner? Hoyer is better. This would be all well and good, if Longshore was the starter. Unfortunately, he's not, and Tedford has tabbed Kevin Riley as the starter. But wait!

"Tedford said Longshore will still play in the season-opener against Michigan State and the position will continue to be evaluated throughout the season."

So who's playing? What is this? Michigan? Platooning QB's? This ain't good. It's also not good when your returning starter who passed for 3,000+ yards in '06 isn't good enough to beat out his backup.

EDGE: HOYER

RUNNING BACK:

Ringer vs. Best

Oddly, nobody seems to be talking about Javon Ringer this year as a potential game-breaking back in the Big Ten. Caulcrick may have gotten the majority of the attention last year, but Ringer actually carried the bulk of the load for the Spartans. He is one of the better backs in the conference, but it remains to be seen how he will hold up without Caulcrick in there to take the punishing carries.

On Cal's side, they return Jahvid Best, who is an electrifying little guy (185 lbs.) who saw time last year in spelling starter Justin Forsett. While he only carried the ball 29 times, his 7.6 YPC is impressive. According to Scout, Best was the fastest tailback in the '07 class, and his 10.31 in the 100 yard dash back that up. Cal is super-high on this guy, as he is adept at catching the ball out of the backfield, and returning punts. Tedford again:

"We're gonna use him wherever he's the best player...It may be as a returner, it may be in the backfield, it may be in the slot catching balls. He's a very versatile guy in that way."

In a way, this matchup is a microcosm of the Big Ten/Pac-Ten differences. Javon Ringer is going to give you every-down performance, will punish between the tackles, and will move the chains. Jahvid Best is a homerun threat for sure, but has a big question mark over his head regarding toughness, and ability to run inside. He is rather injury prone, bruising his hip against USC last season, and missing the final few days of camp this season with an undisclosed injury. The Big Ten in general has trouble with players like Best, and as such the edge goes to Cal here, but just barely.

EDGE: BEST

WIDE RECEIVERS

Michigan State's wide receivers grabbed the attention of anyone who thought that the departure of Thomas was going to impact the air-attack. Nearly all the receivers were impressive in the spring game, and will only get better as Deon Curry returns from injury. If Hoyer gets better (which he should) this unit will turn heads. Look for freshman Fred Smith to get some time in as well - he was a 4 star to Scout, and chose MSU over the Wolverines. Coaches love him.

Cal's receivers are...ummm...new. Receiving coach Kevin Daft:

"I have confidence they are going to make plays when the ball is thrown their way...Not everyone has experience, but they have a ton of talent. I'm excited to see them play. They've paid their dues and they've worked hard."

Kevin might have confidence, but he's the only one. The only two receivers who have caught passes in an NCAA game are LaReylle Cunningham and Sean Young. They've caught 5 passes total. Combined.

EDGE: MSU

DEFENSE

Michigan State's defense will be good - D'Antonio will see to that. Greg Jones (this blog's patron linebacker) should be an unholy terror at the position, and will be nominated for several awards by the end of the season. The defense should be fast and physical. Last season, they racked up 40 sacks, impressive by anyone's standard. This season, with another year of D'antonio under their belt, they should be more consistent.

Cal's defense sucked last year. There really isn't a nicer way to put it. This year they look to be much improved, as they return nearly everyone. However, returning players who sucked last year doesn't automatically mean they won't suck again this year. The strength of the defense is the linebackers, who should be able to contain Ringer. The defensive line, however, is another story. They have trouble pressuring the QB, and if there is one thing that Hoyer can do, it's stand in the pocket for 7 seconds and find the open receiver. The secondary is a question mark, as sophomore Christ Conte gets the start at Corner.

EDGE: MICHIGAN STATE


Still to come...

Utah vs. Michigan
Illinois vs. Mizzou