The Only Game That Matters

Finale

2008-10-29T13:33:00.005-04:00

Funny, really, that a post that will live here on this site for eternity, or at least until the robots take over, is a post laughing at how Michigan's ".edu" page links to a...suggestive...adult site. I actually might take that down, now that I think about it, so that anyone who stumbles here on a dead blogroll link doesn't get the wrong impression. It will be the first post that I've ever deleted - not that I haven't wanted to in the past.

205 posts, dating back to January 27th. Actually, if I could, I would probably delete that post too. It's funny how much the style has changed over the short time of 9 months. I'm sorta glad nobody was around to read it. We made it up to #17 in NCAA blog rankings, according to Ballhype, although I'm quite sure that our traffic numbers - about 200 visitors/day at our peak - wouldn't reflect that high a number.

My first post started out with an observation: "it ain't easy." It's still not. I'd like to say that I've improved, my writing certainly has, but it's still not easy coming up with stuff to write about in the Sahara desert that is the off season. Add in the fact that we all have real lives with real issues, and you get the point. I didn't realize how true that first statement would turn out to be.

Something else I didn't realize when I started was how addictive it would be. How much fun it would be to see your sitemeter rise as more people click on your stuff. How cool it is to see something you wrote show up on EDSBS or Mgoblog or even AOL. I never dreamed that, during this disaster of a Michigan season, I would be having the most fun I think I've ever had being a college football fan. That's why I'm not going to stop.

This blog has always operated under the guise of being a "Big Ten" blog with no particular affiliation to any team. Anyone who has read it on a consistant basis, however, has probably found this to be patently untrue. The main reason for my not starting a "Michigan" blog when I began was the fact that there were already so many very good ones out there. Mgoblog is the Gorilla not just of Michigan, but of all NCAA blogs. RBUAS, Genuinely Sarcastic, Varsity Blue...hell, Michigan has a swimming blog. A blog. About Michigan swimming. What chance did I have of getting any of that market share? So I wrote thinly veiled Michigan posts. Even my non-Michigan posts came from a Michigan fan's worldview, which is a beast unto itself.

Now I'm proud to say that Champ and I will be writing for one of those Michigan blogs that I deemed as "too big and powerful" to go directly up against when I first started this thing. We will be writing at Maize 'n Brew, and I sincerely hope that you will come along for the ride. There is virtually no way you've stumbled upon this site having not been aware of MnB, but there it is anyways. I don't expect my writing style to change much, and frankly, I don't expect the content to change much either. I will still write crazy Northwestern posts, and I'll still have Spartstravaganza day despite the fact that they let me down on the whole tailspin thing.

This is probably getting close to the dreaded "tldnr" but there is no way this site even registers the tiniest of blips in this 'sphere without the help of the BTB group, and specifically the boys at Black Heart Gold Pants. Also those people who, somehow, found this site and commented. That was fun.

Come join me and Champ over at Maize 'n Brew. I promise it will be a good time, even if you hate Michigan.

Go Blue.

And thanks.

The Easy Way Out

2008-10-28T09:21:00.004-04:00

This hasn't been a particularly fun football season.

It has had its moments, sure, but on the whole, it's not fun to watch your team get beaten every week in new and exciting ways. Combine losing, which sucks, with the fact that every team that beats you has been waiting for years to do so, and you get what most Michigan fans are going through. No amount of "what about the previous six years?" will rub out the Spartan's smug grin. No amount of "winningest college football program" will stop the text messaging from random "friends" who probably wouldn't even be talking to you except that you're a Michigan fan and it's your turn in the barrel. Even my NFL team of choice (Colts), who for so long could be relied on to numb (slightly) any Michigan loss, kind of suck this year.

I commiserated with a Notre Dame fan this weekend, who assured me that "things would get better." Yeesh.

I thought (and said so in print) that this Michigan team would finally put all the pieces together against Michigan State. Their relative weakness played into our relative strength, Michigan seemed to have found something with Minor, and on the whole the team appeared ready to take a step forward and make 60 minutes of football happen. They didn't; It didn't; My bad.

As a fan, there is only so much you can do. You can whine, you can stare at a blank computer screen's blinking cursor for an hour, you can break things. I've done all three over the course of this season. I have nothing to show for it except a few posts that never got posted (thankfully), an annoyed girlfriend, and a cracked screen on my cell phone. Those are the culminated results of my being a Michigan fan this sesaon. Hardly impressive.

I am not an apologist. There are certainly things that I wished were handled differently with the switch to Rodriguez, and there are probably more things that I wish were handled better. The easy way out, if you're a Michigan fan, is to blame the entire thing on the coaching staff. The 3rd and long = Death is certainly Schafer's fault. The offensive woes are purely due to Rodriguez's stubborn insistence on imposing his offensive scheme.

I get that. I know that, for those who love Michigan, this season is almost impossibly hard to take. As a result, you see a certain distancing by those who love this team. By blaming the coaching staff, you can say "It's not my team; those aren't my guys." It's a survival technique. Most of the Michigan blogosphere has been resoundingly against employing this technique because the preponderance of evidence suggests that the team will, eventually, be very good with this exact coaching staff in place. I fall into that camp. However, it is hard to begrudge anyone for doing something that simply allows them to get through the day; week; month without feeling too down. This season, if it makes you feel better to blame the new coaching staff, just go ahead and do it - as long as you realize what it is: a survival technique aimed at distancing yourself from the program so that you don't hurt as much when they lose.

You're taking the easy way out, and that's well and good. In fact, there are several message boards around these internets that will allow you to vent all you want about how things should be different, and how we'd be 7-1 with Les Miles and his giant balls.

For those not taking the easy way out, it's going to be rough. I don't see this team winning many more games. In fact, I don't really see this team winning any more games. My advice is to turn off your cell phone, stay the hell away from the internet, and go do something outside. Watch Michigan play on Saturday, and afterwards, do something fun.

If that sounds hollow, it's because it is.

Guarantee Games

2008-10-24T16:03:00.004-04:00

[ed. - I was writing this in an airport, and hit the post button right as the last of my flight was boarding. As such, "guarantee" was misspelled in the title. Thanks for letting me know, jerks.]

All bets are off if Nick Sheridan sees significant playing time. What is significant? Let's say...2 drives worth. If Nick Sheridan plays 2 drives worth of football, then all bets are off.

What an odd way to start a post

Agreed. But when you're going out on an already shaky limb, it's best to be sure that the precious little support you do have is firmly entrenched. If the limb is broken to begin with, you can't be at fault when it collapses.

Still not getting it - despite aid of cliche metaphor

Ok, fine. Here we go: Michigan is going to beat Michigan State tomorrow. I'm saying it, I'm putting it on record, and I'm putting it in print. I'll say it again in italics, for emphasis: Michigan is going to beat Michigan State tomorrow.

Any particular reason?

I thought that despite the 2nd half implosion, there were several things that Michigan could take away from that Penn State game that were positive. First, you had the unveiling of Minor at tailback, who (as Champ pointed out) had Anthony Scirrotto firmly on his ass being dragged downfield at several points during the game. McGuffie's done a lot of great things with the ball this season, but gaining those crucial extra 3 yards after contact hasn't been one of them. Forget all the BS "Minor runs with anger!" and "Minor runs with purpose!" type exclamations - Minor gets yards after contact, and when your offense struggles with things like "positive yardage" this is a huge, huge asset.

Ok, so you've got a guy who can run the ball. Still not seeing it.

In baseball, it's often the sign of a pitcher's command and "stuff" when he starts throwing first pitch strikes. If a pitcher, especially a young pitcher, can gain an 0-1 count, it allows him to do things with the following pitches that he couldn't do if he had thrown a first pitch ball. Alternatively, a first pitch strike puts the batter on his heels, so to speak, and in instant "protect the plate" mode, lest he go down 0-2.

I hate baseball

None withstanding, when Michigan's offense gains positive yards on first down, it's like throwing that first pitch strike. Go back and look at some of Mgoblog's UFR's. When Michigan picks up positive yardage on first down, the result is a more opened playbook. The defense can't key off on one or two plays that they know are coming in a 2nd and long situation. Just like a young pitcher, this young offense is borderline effective (gasp!) when they gain yards on first down. Now, typically, this wouldn't be something worth following, as good offenses usually get positive yards on first down, but, uh, this isn't a good offense. To wit: in the first half against Penn State, the UFR shows only 3 plays that went for negative yardage. Only one of those plays was on first down. In the 2nd half when Michigan was totally shut-down? There were a total of 6 plays that went for negative yardage, 3 of which were on 1st down. Oh - and Brian stopped charting with 13 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. First half: limited loss of yardage, especially on first down. Result: 17 points. Second half: Lots of negative yardage, more on first down. Result: 0 points. Positive yards, especially on first down, is the lifeblood of this team.

What makes you think that "first half Michigan" will come out all game? Seems to me that there is a good chance that "second half Michigan" is just as plausible.

The short anwer to this is that yes, there is a chance that second half Michigan will rear its ugly head. However, given the data that I've looked at, I think there are several very good factors that will allow first half Michigan to rule the day.

First, Michigan State is allowing just over 6 yards per carry on the season. Combine this with the fact that Michigan has, apparently, just "found" a running game with Minor, and you've got a combination that, in my opinion, leads to positive yards, especially on first down when Rodriguez is presumably going to run the ball with the zone-read-stretch business. Michigan won't score on every drive, but I think that negative plays will be extremely limited given MSU's relative weakness on run-defense.

Ok, so maybe you'll score points, but last time I checked, Michigan's defense wasn't exactly shut down.

True. But look at how Michigan State gets their yards: Javon Ringer runs into the line for about 3 yards, and Brandon Hoyer gets lucky throwing into double coverage. That may be an exaggeration, but Brain Hoyer isn't really that good. He is just shy of 50% completion percentage, and has thrown 4 INT's. Ringer will probably get his yards by carrying the ball 40+ times for 3 yards a pop, and that will probably lead to some long scoring drives. If Michigan's linebackers continue to arm tackle the air surrounding ball carriers, this could be more, but this is the exact offense that Michigan's defense is good at stopping. With Ringer doing his thing, the MSU offense is capable of moving the ball, but when the offense gets into situations in which Ringer doesn't factor as being a threat, they suck. Michigan should be able to put them in those situations, especially early.

One thing I am scared of is the screen game. Michigan has been susceptible to screens going for long TD's all season, and I somehow doubt that D'Antonio has missed that in film...

You still haven't really convinced me

That's because I think this thing is going to be close. Brian at Mgo put into print a feeling that you get sometimes when you're looking at data. It's a "wow, I guess I really have to think this, don't I?" The answer is that, if the data points that way, yes, you do.

Of course, the problem is that data relies on past performance, and that predicting on data alone relies on those past performances manifesting themselves in the current game. This is not always the case.

The bottom line is that I believe that Michigan has a good shot at winning this football game. Given the data I've looked at, I believe Michigan will win this football game.

Whatever dude. You're crazy

Probably.

Roundtable Time

2008-10-23T13:07:00.003-04:00

This week's roundtables are kindly hosted by Nittany White Out, a Penn State blog of questionable morals and talent. In other words, my kind of blog.

On to the questions!

We're approaching week 9 now, are you pleasantly surprised or already waiting for basketball season?

I am, actually, pleasantly surprised by the amount of fight that the Big Ten has shown. After another ho-hum slate of OOC games, the Big Ten has represented well. Penn State and Ohio State are both obviously in the top ten, Michigan State (despite whipping) is still a formidable team, and Minnesota and Northwestern have been pleasant surprises for all. Really, Michigan is a huge disappointment in terms of a "hur-hur B10 rules!" kind of argument, but that's about it. Top to bottom, the Big Ten is a competitive league with some teams that, given the right circumstances, could sneak into the title game (I'm looking at you, Ohio State).

Describe one specific play from this season you would alter for a different outcome if you had the chance to.

It's hard to determine one specific play that has determined a whole lot. to single one play out is to downplay the significance of the other plays that got to that situation. I suppose, if I were to single out one play, I'd like to take back a personal foul on the punt return during the latest Michigan v. Penn State game. It probably wouldn't have mattered given what happened in the 2nd half, but that late 2nd half TD for PSU hurt in a variety of ways. I guess I'd have liked to have made them work a little harder for it.

That said, it doesn't necessarily change the outcome of the game - as soon as the threat of Threet keeping the ball disappeared, so did the offense - but rather it would have made me happy going into halftime instead of nervous. Happy B2 is much more fun that nervous B2.

How could it (#2) possibly impact the way your season is going?

It could have improved the short-term relationship between myself and my girlfriend. And her family. And the dogs.

Big Ten player you just can't stand, why?

Without delving too far into the vitriol for which this medium is known, I am very scared of Terrelle Pryor.

Boo'ing your own team (we've seen quite a lot of this across the Big Ten this season), your feelings on this.

This question seems an awful lot like a veiled shot at Michigan, but whatevs. I don't boo, and I will tell people in my immediate vicinity to stop booing, but for me that's where it ends. I'm not going to crusade against it or anything, because there will be dumbasses everywhere, and an angry dumbass is in no way ready to be converted to the patient-type. I'm more of a "thousand yard stare" type of loser anyways, and too inconsolable to really get worked up enough to "stop" the booing.

Number of beers or alcoholic drinks consumed by week 8 (or a good estimate)

Drinking leads to all sorts of socially deviant behavior, and is a sign of poor breeding. For shame, NWO, for shame.

Most annoying commercial seen this season

"They're heeeeeeeerrreeeeeeee"

"Frank TV, vurry funny"

Your prediction for the next coaching change in the Big Ten (Joe Tiller exempt)

Wisconsin will have a new coach before too long. Mark it.

Shenanigans!

2008-10-22T11:37:00.001-04:00

On the road this week. Light posting. Apologies.

Seed Sown

2008-10-21T10:25:00.002-04:00

Step One: Get Blown Out at Home in Biggest Game of the Year.

Step Two: Lose to a Michigan team that you are perfectly capable of beating handily.

No, this is not turning into a Michigan State blog, but given the coverage last Friday during Spartstravaganza, I would be remiss not to offer a followup. It won't be long, mostly because I have to catch a plane to Denver in an hour, but here it is:

Jim Tressel could have hung 70 if he had wanted to. The Spartan's season, the new coaching staff's legacy, and G0EL Pete's liver hang in the balance. Should MSU come and lay an egg again Michigan this weekend, it's same old Sparty time. You see - it's not necessarily the fact that they lost to Ohio State, but rather what they do this week that will make the difference for this year's Spartan football team.

Sometimes, football exists only in the football box. You hit, you pass, you run, and you go home. Sometimes, however, football gets out of its box and applies itself to life. I'm not particularly good at illustrating when that happens, but I will say this: This week, Michigan State gets to prove that they can overcome adversity. They haven't in the past - it's up to this coaching staff to banish those ghosts.

Vince Lombardi once said "it's not whether you fall, it's whether you get back up."

Spartans, it's your turn.

High Hopes

2008-10-21T08:29:00.009-04:00

Somewhere, someone is saying "what a stupid title, look at your team." I have looked at my team sir, and I'm not changing the title because it works on multiple levels.

Encumbered forever by desire and ambition, there's a hunger still unsatisfied Our weary eyes still stray to the horizon, though down this road we've been so many times.

Yep, we're going down that road, we're going to use song lyrics (albeit good ones) to convey a point. Why? Because it's apt, that's why.

Saturday's contest at Happy Valley was a stunningly effective synopsis of where this football team is right now. To boil it down as succinctly as possible, I 100% believe the following:
When this football team executes, it is capable of beating ANYONE in the country. When this football team fails to execute, it is capable of losing to ANYONE in the country.

That is where we are right now. For 26 minutes on Saturday, a 2-4 Michigan team that was supposed to be a sacrificial lamb for the homecoming crowd in State College, PA came out and punched the #3 Nittany Lions square in the mouth. They outplayed them on both sides of the ball and looked good doing it. 1st quarter stats? 12 minutes of possession, 189 yards. Dominance. With a group of 18 and 19 year-old kids, a patched together O-line, and a suddenly awakened Brandon Minor, the Michigan offense controlled the football game. Penn State was damn lucky to put up 14 points in the first half. A missed tackle and two bone-headed penalties let a solid football team back into a game at home, something we simply do not have the luxury of doing right now. Michigan's struggles came not from being thoroughly outmatched by a superior Penn State team. Rather, as has been the case more often than not this year, Michigan's wounds were self-inflicted. From the first PSU TD to the game-turning safety and subsequent kick out of bounds, too many unforced errors were made to overcome. Penn State then did what good teams do, and put the game out of reach in emphatic fashion.

Once Threet was forced out of the game, all of us in the Michigan section looked at each other with an expression that is sadly all too familiar to those of us of the Maize and Blue persuasion. Like when Hart went down in '05 or Henne in '07, we knew we were in trouble. This team is too young and too inexperienced and too thin at positions like, say, quarterback, to be able to overcome losses like that against a team like Penn State. What happened happened, the Penn State fans rejoiced as though the last 12 years never took place, and we walked out of the stadium shaking our heads at what could've possibly been. If I could change one call, I would've slammed into the line and punted instead of letting Sheridan drop back on 3rd and 20 from the shadow of our own goal-post, but that's neither here nor there at this point.

Quick aside: Penn State is a good football team, don't get me wrong, but I don't walk away from Saturday thinking that they're a top 3 team, and I don't walk away from Saturday thinking they'll beat Ohio State in Columbus. But back to the topic at hand...

This is where the hopes come in, this is where I can sit back and look and say, "you know what, this team is going to be good, damn good in fact." It might not be this year, it might not even be next year, but this staff, and this system, will succeed. Seven games into a miserable year, the improvement is noticeable, the effectiveness of a trimmed down Rodriguez offensive system is apparent, the adjustments were there, the team clicked and moved the ball and looked good doing it. They brought forth an effective gameplan that cut out many of the ineffective behind the LOS passes that have hindered this offense earlier this year. Michigan powered between the tackles, they threw to the tight ends, they used Steven Threet's legs to hold the Penn State D in check, and they looked downfield in the passing game. The execution, when there, is something to see, especially when you factor in the youth and current make-up of the team. The mistakes are confounding and extremely frustrating, but they are fixable.

I walk away from Saturday knowing the following:

1. Threet is a capable quarterback in this offense. Ideal? No. But he's been effective when healthy and has more than 0.2 seconds to make throws. He was surgical in the first half, and I believe had he not gotten dinged up, would've continued marching the football... Once he stopped keeping the ball on the read-option (presumably from aforementioned dinged-upness), the run game started to sputter because the D could simply key on Minor.

2. We have no depth at QB. God love Nick Sheridan, he has been thrown into some of the most horrifying situations this season, but he simply doesn't have the same ability to move the football like Threet does. Threet with backups in Beaver and Forcier next season is not a bad thing in the least.

3. Taking points one and two, we're in a huge world of hurt if Threet isn't ready to go this upcoming Saturday. Given Sheridan's struggles in moving the offense... and I HATE to be this guy, but perhaps if Threet can't play, do we give Feagin an opportunity? I'm not the coach, I don't see the practices, but I wouldn't be upset to see him get a chance if Threet (God forbid) can't go.

4. Evan Royster is a heck of a tailback, tremendous patience and some good ol' fashioned toughness and speed. Hats off to him.

5. Brandon Minor finally put all of those flashes of brilliance into something consistent and sustained, and holy hell was it impressive. Anthony Scirrotto spent most of his day on his back and being carried downfield.

6. The defense picked up the blitizing and was more effective at getting into the backfield... BUT, this defense still gives up too many big plays (this is nothing new) and misses too many tackles. I also do not understand the reasoning behind only playing three down-linemen when we're so loaded on the D-line.

7. I was wrong about this defense in the preseason. They're capable, and have been put in a number of terrible situations over the season... but they aren't the shutdown unit capable of carrying an offense that is either completely on or completely off. The safety play hasn't been good enough, and frankly, neither has the play of our corners. We're so concerned about not giving up the deep ball, that we let teams get 10-12 out routes at will... sometimes we're getting caught in zones

8. I'm glad we have Rich Rodriguez as our football coach.

Penn State walked out of that stadium Saturday with the promise of an unforgettable season still in tow, their fanbase not quite sure what to do with themselves. Michigan walked out knowing they had a top ranked team on the ropes at home and flittered the opportunity away... but they walk away knowing that even now, they can play with anybody. It's not a victory, and for most that means it's not good enough, but right now, that's what we've got, and that's what we have to build on.

Bring on Sparty... and GO BLUE!

And finally...

2008-10-17T15:01:00.004-04:00

Spartstravaganza wouldn't be complete without this, from Mike Valenti. Hawkeye State of BHGP was kind enough to remind us of it, and points out that it's either the saddest, or funniest saddest thing he's ever heard.

Gallows humor, to be sure.

The audio takes a minute to load because I don't have a better grasp on how to embed audio. Apologies.

Boomp3.com

Enjoy the game tomorrow.

Interview with a Spartan

2008-10-17T14:32:00.003-04:00

Not nearly this cool

As a part of our Spartravaganza today, we've got resident blogger of Ground Zero East Lansing here to discuss a little Michigan State. Along with running a fine blog, G0EL Pete is also the only Spartan I know who has a sense of humor regarding Michigan, making him just short of awesome. Unfortunately, I was unable to line up an Ohio State blogger for questioning, partly because I never asked, but mostly because none of them can read. On to the questions!

Ok, we're bound by our contract to ask this question first: Who is the player on Ohio State who scares you the most?

That'd be Beanie. It's more of MSU's experiences with past Big 10 running backs (Thigpen, Greene and Sutton all broke the 100 yard barrier) that factors into this fear than anything else. If Beanie is breaking into the secondary consistently, that's going to allow OSU to go into the Jim Tressel patented "try and hold the ball for all 60 minutes" mode.

Are there any particular nuances about Beanie vs. the Run Defense that we should know about?

Obviously, in the run game, so much of it comes down to blocking along the line. If the OSU OL gets out on their blocks, the guards pull and block the Spartan LB, it's going to lead to big, big gains. Which means of course, big, big trouble in Spartan Stadium.

Defensively, Greg Jones remains my favorite Spartan. We have a tag devoted to him. He's tall, and a really sweet guy, and well, I just really like him :) :) ...How is he doing this year; do you expect him to have a big game this weekend?

Greg Jones has had a solid year. He's currently leading the team in tackles (52) and ranks second in tackles for a loss (5.5). If MSU wins this game on Saturday, I expect him to have a big if quiet day in which he records more than 10 tackles. If he has less than that, it means one of two things: Beanie Wells is running into the secondary or Pryor is throwing it over Jones' head. I'm going to go out on a huge limb and say the former is much more likely to happen than the latter; if Tressel could super-glue the ball into Terrelle's hands, I have no doubt that he would.

Ok, so what is Michigan State's achilles heel defensively? Does OSU have the ability to exploit it, or will MSU be able to cover it up?

In a stunner this year, it's not the secondary. I'd say it's the inability of the front seven to stop the run consistently. OSU definitely has the ability to exploit it, if they don't turn the ball over. MSU is +10 in turnover differential this year, and have stopped many drives in the red zone by causing a fumble or interception (Case in point: Iowa.) The Spartans have been covering up this deficiency by causing turnovers, but if they don't get any against OSU...look out.

Switching gears to the offense, most of the teams that MSU has faced thus far have lacked to ability to stack the line and stop Ringer from killing them. Ohio State has the ability to do just that. How do you expect Hoyer to play should Ringer be slowed?

Well, Ringer has slowed a bit in Big Ten play (his YPC in the last three games: 4.5, 3.6, 3.5). Ohio State definitely has the ability to stack the line. I expect Ringer's production to be much similar to the Iowa game. Iowa had a killer DL, and OSU has killer LBs, so I expect Ringer's YPC in the mid threes. I expect MSU to run it enough to set up the play action and deep pass for Hoyer, who has improved in Big Ten play (I believe he's the third ranked passer in Big 10 games). The thing that can't happen is that he can't play like he did in Columbus last year, where he completed under 50% of his passes and threw for just over 100 yards. I expect Hoyer to be his solid, unspectacular self, throw for about 200 yards on 55-60% passing, with a TD and no picks.

As for the "We'll stop Ringer and let Hoyer beat us" strategy, ask Indiana, Iowa, and Northwestern how that went.

Right. Regarding the inevitable tailspin?

I've got two and a half words for you: John L. Smith. Now that Dantonio is the the head coach, MSU is playing much more consistently (for example: I guarantee you that in this OSU game, unlike three years ago, eleven players will take the field for a FG attempt. That was the game most known for "THE PLAYERS ARE PLAYING THEIR TAILS OFF, AND THE COACHES ARE SCREWING IT UP!" That was the tailspin moment for 2005.). The secondary is intercepting balls, penalties are being kept to a minimum, everybody's healthy, and nobody's slapping himself in the face.

I don't believe a loss to OSU will start that tailspin mainly because MSU's next three games are these: @ UM, Wisconsin, and Purdue. In years past, any casual viewer knew that MSU would definitely be outclassed in those games, but not anymore. Albeit, the definition of a tailspin involves a team losing games it should win, and those three games are ones in which the Spartans will be favored. I believe Dantonio has MSU too focused, and too grounded for a tailspin to occur again.

And if it does, I drink myself silly until November 16th, when MSU Basketball stats its season against Idaho. It's easier than you think, Michigan fans. Just start drinking, and don't stop until leaves are on the trees again. (ed.- My favorite line from the entire interview. A Spartan with a sense of humor...love it.)

The Tailspin

2008-10-17T11:44:00.004-04:00

Not that tailspin

Michigan State fans know it. The team knows it. The coaches...well...these coaches may not know it viscerally, like the fans and the players, but they know it. They know it's coming.

That's the one

For Michigan State, the football season doesn't really start until that first back-breaking loss is out of the way. I'm not saying this to talk trash, or to have some sort of ROTFLMAO moment. It is simply what years of conditioning has taught the denizens of Spartan Stadium. Sure - they're good now. Just wait. Wait until we blow a huge lead against Northwestern. Wait until Notre Dame comes here and, inexplicably, pulls out a win after losing for the majority of the game. Wait until...and here comes the words every Spartan know and love...next year.

This year, the Spartans have stood up to their past, and owned their opponents. Sure, they lost to Cal, but really - and here's another of my maxims to live by - Big Ten teams should never travel west in the first 3 games of the season. Just nix it right off the schedule. Oregon, Cal, USC - they're all death to Big Ten teams early. So, erasing that loss as much as can be done, the Spartans have gotten considerably further in their schedule without a tailspin inducing loss than before. But now the heavy lifting begins. Michigan State has skated through a relatively easy schedule to this point, facing Northwestern has probably been their biggest challenge. The next three games, Ohio State, Michigan, and Wisconsin, will largely determine their fate in the Big Ten. These three games are all winnable for Michigan State, and are the exact games that Michigan State traditionally loses.

A loss to Ohio State puts the collapse mindset in the forefront of players, fans, and coaches. It turns the following two infinitely winnable games into question marks. If MSU gets blown away by Ohio State, Michigan and Wisconsin are immediately in doubt. It's been this way since the dawn of time. Michigan State is just one backbreaking loss away from a .500 record, and a berth in a bowl played well before Christmas. It happened with Bobby Williams, it happened with John L. Smith, and it even happened with Spartan Golden Child Nick Saban, who despite his post-Spartan brilliance, was still 2-3 against Michigan.

A win, on the other hand, may prove that Michigan State, as a program, is turning the corner, and that D'Antonio may actually be on to something. A win against Ohio State puts the Michigan and Wisconsin games from "doubtful" to "probable" in terms of winning. It puts the Spartans in the driver's seat for a berth in the Rose Bowl.

Win, and you've got a BCS worthy Big Ten team. Lose, and you've got the same old Sparty struggling to a .500 record. It's probably hyperbole to put this one game in such a context, but given the history, it's not too far a stretch. There is a lot hinging on this game for D'Antonio's boys, but nothing more important than putting the mid-season collapse modus operendi firmly in the rearview.

It's Spart-Eye Day!

2008-10-17T09:28:00.007-04:00

Well, we've got on our green hats here at TOGTM HQ, and combined with our scarlet sweatervests, we'd say we look pretty dashing. Pants? Don't need 'em. The eye-gougingly awful Christmas-gone-to-hell combo of Spartan Green and Buckeye Scarlet is enough to ward off even the most wandering of eyes. And if the color combo doesn't do it, our penis will.

We figure D'Antonio woke up this morning in pretty good spirits. His team is, after all, ranked number 20 in the country, and hey, that's not too bad! Maybe even enough to crack a smile at if, you know, D'Antonio ever smiled - which he does not because emotion is a sign of humanity, and humanity is weakness. Nope, D'Antonio will have none of your weakness, human race, it's a sign of poor breeding. But regardless, D'Antonio probably came as close to smiling as he ever has as he made his morning coffee and watched replays of his "Big Ten Recruiting" commercial in which he manages to scare the living daylights out of us. Really, JoePa may have stolen the show on that one with his "weeeeerelinbackeruuuuu" slur, but pay particular attention to D'Antonio next time. Striking fear into the hearts of friends and enemies alike; that's how D'Antonio rolls. In fact, it's printed right there on his coffee mug.

Jim Tressel, on the other hand, woke up this morning as he always does; rising out of his coffin, a quick virgin-blood shake for breakfast, and off to the office - mindful not to cross running water. Jim, being undead, probably whistles a lot. There isn't a joke in there, I just think that he probably whistles with the uncaring attitude that only those who know that they cannot die possess. Jim knows he's coached better football teams but - and I can't stress this enough - being undead has its advantages, and he's managed to seduce his team, poll voters, and his adoring fans that Ohio State is the same Ohio State that has bitchmade the entire conference for nearly a decade. No reason to think that the gravy-train stops this weekend, and by gravy we of course mean blood.

Two coaches, both speeding towards a meeting that will inevitably leave one significantly more angry than they already are. D'Antonio wears his anger on his sleeve; uses it as motivation for players, recruits, and those sitting at home watching BTN commercials. Jim's anger is much more subtle, passive even. But make no mistake, the anger is there, right below the surface of a calm exterior. A storm rages inside Jim Tressel, but the man never shows it, which makes him dangerous. An enraged man can be dealt with because with the rage comes the adrenaline that relegates reasoned thought and calculation to the nether regions of consciousness. Jim never rages. Jim uses his anger to fuel that reasoned thought and calculation, never letting it take him over.

Two styles; two coaches; two teams who, given the opportunity, would love nothing more than to beat the living hell out of the other, within the rules and parameters of the game of football, of course. That opportunity comes tomorrow, and we've got everything you need, Mr. Big Ten fan, to get you ready for it.

Don't Say We Didn't Warn You; Ok, Fine, We Didn't Warn You

2008-10-15T14:00:00.007-04:00

Say you've got this team, right? And this team was beyond awful last year. I mean, it was so bad, that I wrote that I had to call Woods Hole and rent Alvin to go find their record. We're talking bottom of the Mariana Trench bad. The statistics at the bottom of said trench?

2007 Rankings of the Minnesota Golden Gophers:

Total Defense: 119th
Turnover Margin: 115th
Time of Possession: 102nd
Red Zone Conversion: 72nd
Scoring Offense: 67th
Overall Record: 1-11

Ok, so you're not going to win very many football games when your defense is ranked as the worst defense in the nation. And you're not going to win very many football games when you're losing the ball to turnovers more than any team in the nation save 4.

But, as bad as Minnesota was last year, there were some statistics that indicated a modicum of success. Namely:

Total Offense: 48th (ahead of IU, Ohio State, Michigan)
Sacks Allowed: 6th (just 1/game)
Third Down Conversions: 36th (42.6% success)
TFL's allowed: 19th (63 allowed)

Ok, so the offense - when it wasn't turning the ball over - was actually pretty decent. Excellent protection for the QB, and they managed to stay on the field. This suggests that the problem was with a defense that was a sieve, and an offense that couldn't hang onto the ball. To be a successful football team, Minnesota had to put those"Mariana Trench" category stats into the "modicum of success" category.

This year, through 7 games:

Total Defense: 84th
Turnover Margin: 2nd (!!!)
Time of Possession: 21st
Red Zone Conversion: 28th
Scoring offense: 42nd

Ok, so the defense still isn't great. But the offense, which was competent last year, is finally holding onto the ball. Heck, sometimes the defense is actually getting it for them which must be a novel thing:

Brewster: OFFENSE, LET'S GO! WIN FIGHT!

Offense: Wait a second there coach. I didn't see the other team score a Touchdown yet. We're not supposed to go in until that happens.

The offense is holding onto the ball and converting in the Red Zone. I don't need to go into the flawed stat that is "red zone conversion" but hey - it's flawed for everybody, and at least the Gophers are doing it. The result: a 6-1 record.

We didn't warn you that the Gophers could be a good football team this year, and they're still not world-beaters. But they went from grossly incompetent to bowl-eligible by dramatically improving in just a few areas. The framework for success was there, and Brewster should be credited for maintaining that framework while improving on the key areas that held the Gophers back last year.

Das Poll

2008-10-15T10:18:00.003-04:00

Champ is a busy, busy man. He creates life. No, really, he does. As such, he has had little time for a foolish college football blog, and an even more foolish poll that counts for nothing other than the fact that we have fun writing it. It's not even included in the fancy-pants CBS BlogPoll, as we cruelly found out while posting bail for trying to pay for things with Schrutebucks. The guys down at County liked our American Eagle cologne; we have no regrets.

As such, you get my poll and my poll only, in all its inaccurate and hastily written glory. I mean, what the hell do you do with the Utah teams? Why did Texas Tech jump so dramatically when they were pushed to the brink by Nebraska? Yeah, we're scared too. Here's the poll, along with half-cocked rationalizations:

1) Bama
2) TEX
3) PSU
4) Florida
5) Georgia

Bama moves up to number 1 mostly because I'm a firm believer of "you can't drop if you haven't played." Alabama still has a stronger resume than Texas, despite the glitzy "newness" of Texas's marquee victory. The glitz, however, does get them to number 2, and I think that if Bama comes out weak at any point, they're ripe to get jumped as long as Texas puts that whattaburger-sized whipping on the remainder of their schedule. Penn State is rewarded for the whipping they imparted on Wisconsin, but frankly I think it's becoming clear that Wisconsin just isn't very good. If Florida continues romping and stomping through their competition - which is much stiffer than PSU's remaining competition - they may get jumped. Georgia being at number 5 is going to be short lived, IMO.

6) Oklahoma
7) USC
8) LSU
9) BYU
10) Texas Tech

Oklahoma lost, sure, but they're still a football team that I believe can beat everyone lower than them on this ranking. I just couldn't put them any lower than 6. USC moves up due to BYU and Mizzour's relatively weak performances - strenght of opponent in BYU's case, and a flat out loss by Mizzou. LSU is in the same boat as Oklahoma. Despite the loss, I don't see them losing to anyone ranked lower than they are. Texas Tech was pushed to the brink by the Huskers, but they debut in my top 10 largely because I've had them under-ranked for the majority of the season. They're good - and if they beat some of the Big Boys of the BXII, they should be mentioned for the title race.

11) Ohio State
12) Mizzou
13) Utah
14) OK State
15) Wake

Ohio State is on life support, in my opinion. Pryor has played very well as a freshman, but the fact remains that he is still a freshman, and is playing behind a line that some would call suspect. I call them bad. Mizzou may have been exposed this weekend. I'll admit, I was drinking the kool-aid on them, but really, I don't think OK state is that good - I just think Mizzou was grossly overrated. Utah stays pat - just waiting for their matchup against BYU. OK state, despite what I said about Mizzou, still took care of business, and they make their debut right ahead of Wake, who played terrible football for 3 quarters and still managed to beat Clemson.

16) Boise State
17) Michigan State
18) Virginia Tech
19) Ball State
20) Vandy

I don't know what to do with Boise. They keep moving up because of attrition ahead of them, and frankly, we don't have enough info on them because they haven't played very many "real" opponents. I still can't figure out why nobody just stacks the line against Michigan State and forces Hoyer to throw it, but hey, there they are at 17. Virginia Tech, Ball State, and Vandy are all "still ranked but not that great" type teams, which leads us to the bottom 5.

21) UNC
22) Kansas
23) South Florida
24) TCU
25) Tulsa

Wheeeeee! The only team on this list that I think could win against a team ranked in the top 20 is UNC. There, I said it.

Who would you rather: Michigan or Wisconsin?

2008-10-14T14:30:00.005-04:00

There isn't much spleen on these internets coming from Wisconsin fans despite the fact that their team has lost 3 in a row rather spectacularly. This is, in large part, due to the lack of a Wisconsin blog of note combined with the fact that most Wisconsinites are generally good natured folks who don't get too worked up about this sort of thing. This is the result I got by typing in "angry Wisconsin fan" into youtube:

When this is as angry as your fanbase gets, you don't get a whole lot of internet spleen.

Michigan, on the other hand, has internet capable fans exploding into mushroom clouds of high hopes colliding violently with hard reality. Despite the fact that Michigan was expected to suck this year, most of the fanbase can be seen curled up on a public bathroom floor, kicking at nothing but their own pain. Oh - that's not a metaphor:

But, despite the spleen, Michigan was expected to suck this year. With the attrition, and the new coach, and the transfers, the fanbase - or at least the educated fanbase - saw this coming. It still hurts (witness nearly every Michigan blog for evidence of this hurting. Brian killed a guy.), but that hurting is somewhat numbed by lowered expectation.

Wisconsin, on the other hand, had a top ten team that most thought would challenge for the Big Ten. After Ohio State went down to USC, and subsequently proved that they weren't going to be world-beaters in the Big Ten, many Wisconsinites had their eyes set on Pasadena as a back-up plan. They wanted that Crystal Trophy.

Then, in one half of football against a woeful Michigan team, the wheels fell off the bus, the bus exploded, and the wheels continued to roll over every Wisconsin fan's dog before finally igniting the dairy barn's milkin' room. Things got ugly fast. Now, after those insanely high hopes, Wisconsin finds themselves 0-3 in the Big Ten, and fighting for their bowl lives. Not Rose Bowl, mind you, just plain old bowl.

They will find themselves in a bowl, no doubt, but with those sky high expectations for this team, how can the fans not be hopelessly depressed and disappointed?

So my question is, who would you rather?

Michigan: Lowered expectations vs. even lower reality

or

Wisconsin: Super-high expectations vs. crushing defeat

Answers in the poll on the sidebar, reasons in the comments.

Rich Rod to Clemson - no

2008-10-14T11:03:00.005-04:00

Look at me! Look at me! I'm talking now. I don't know what I'm talking about, nor do I care. I just have to talk to fill this empty void! But here's a catchy headline sure to turn some heads, right? RichRod to Clemson! Look at me! Wheeeeee!

In a word: no.

No, no, no no no.

Did you see what I just did there? I put up a headline that is catchy enough to get your attention. You see - you just clicked on my site, which would have paid me more, if I were being paid at all. Tricking your readers isn't really the best idea for gaining a consistant readership, but I do so to make a point: This is where the internets get the reputation for baseless rumor-mongering and vitriol. And it's that easy. And many sites are doing it right now regarding this rumor. It has no legs, makes no sense, and is insulting to anyone with half a brain.

Yo, Braylon!

2008-10-14T10:16:00.003-04:00

Hey, you know we play Penn State this weekend, right?

(ht on the photo to Deadspin, which, like, dude...)

Seriously though, this had to be a bet, right? Please? Braylon?

Don't Panic

2008-10-13T12:06:00.003-04:00

"In many of the more relaxed civilizations on the Outer Eastern Rim of the Galaxy, the Hitch Hiker's Guide has already supplanted the great Encyclopedia Galactica as the standard repository of all knowledge and wisdom, for though it has many omissions and contains much that is apocryphal, or at least wildly inaccurate, it scores over the older, more pedestrian work in two important respects.

First, it is slightly cheaper; and secondly it has the words Don't Panic inscribed in large friendly letters on its cover"

This is what you wanted, right? You there, I'm talking to you. Yes, you - the one with the maize and blue on. This is what you wanted for the past three seasons while you wailed from your (seated) position at the Big House for Carr to just retire already, right? That's what I thought.

And yet - here we are - with you saying things like "inexcusable" when talking about the very change that you wanted to see. Change that YOU called for, Mr. Michigan fan.

I know what you're going to say. You're going to ask me if it's ok to be mediocre; if it's ok to have lowered expectations; if it's ok to no longer be the leaders and best. No. It's not - and I don't think that anyone is suggesting that it is. In fact, the very people who are steering this ship are the people most upset. But here are the facts:

Your offensive line can't block
Your quarterback can't throw

When these things work in concert, these things happen:

Your bowl streak will, in all likelihood, end this season
You will, in all likelihood, lose to Ohio State again
You lose to a MAC team for the first time ever

And you know what? None of these things matter in the slightest. Oh sure, they'll go down on the record books, and Michigan FANS will lose bragging rights over other FANS, but since when does the fate of a program rest upon accolades that only FANS care about? It doesn't.

There is no offense that adapts to inaccuracy from a QB.
There is no offense that neutralizes a bad offensive line.

Rodriguez knows this. That's why he's running the damn zone-read so often. It's why he's forcing his system on these players who aren't adapted to run it. I-form slams into the line aren't going to work with this team - they're missing too many FUNDAMENTAL skills. Any attempt at making Michigan a competent offensive team this year will do two things:

1) It will fail
2) It will retard the improvement in the offense that Rodriguez was hired to run.

You want to know what happens when a coach is brought in to run a specific system, and not everyone buys in? Look at Auburn. Tony Franklin was brought in to run a system that had success at every level. When the coaching staff didn't buy into the program, the offense was not only a spectacular failure, but one in which there was no discernible reason for the failure.

I'll put it this way:

Michigan's offense is failing, but in so doing, they are gaining valuable experience for the future, because this offense IS Michigan's future. Auburn ran/is running a bastardized version of the Air Raid that sucks, and won't lend itself to ANY future improvements.

If failing truly gives you the opportunity to learn, then at least Michigan is learning something that will help them in the future. Auburn doesn't have the opportunity to learn from their mistakes, because they won't be running the Franklin/Tuberville bastard offense in the future. Their failures were for naught.

Rodriguez has jumped blindfolded and headfirst into shallow shark-infested waters. When he comes out the other side - and all evidence supports that he will - his team will be ready to fight. But right now, he - and all of us - are still in those waters, fighting for our lives.

So stop it, sir. Stop booing, stop stomping your feet like a petulant child calling things inexcusable and unacceptable. You wanted this change; you got this change.

"Those who stay will be champions" is bullshit and not applicable here. Those who stay will be pained, elated, tearful, truthful, ecstatic, angry, and joyful. There are no guarantees in life, and even less in sports. For myself, and Champ, I think we'll stick around to see how this ends, and not be such insufferable twits. For those inclined to call things unacceptable, boo 19-23 year old kids, or start raving about a lack of offensive direction or the deterioration of the entire program, I will not care if you cease to breathe.*

*Not applicable in real life

Roundtables? Roundup.

2008-10-13T09:05:00.003-04:00

Last week was, uh, not so good in the whole "posting new content" realm. Oh sure, we got around to some things, but when the number 1 tag of the week is "functionality" which is a fancy way of saying "post about how we don't have time to post" that ain't good.

I did host the Big Ten Blogger's roundtable, which was done "Jeopardy" style; I provided the answers, and the bloggers provided the questions. The participating blogs:

Off The Tracks
Enlightened Spartan
Happy Hour Valley
Maize and Blue Nation
Varsity Blue
The Nittany Line
Maize n' Brew
Boiled Sports
Lake the Posts
Ground Zero East Lansing
Black Heart Gold Pants
The Buckeye Battle Cry

Chances are you've read it already, but Black Heart Gold Pants used the format to launch into a celebrity Jeopardy parody of sorts involving JoePa. Read it, like, right now. No seriously, read it, then come back.

Now that you're back, lets take a look at some of the answers I provided, along with the correct questions:

Answer: Jay Paterno and the Spread HD

Most (read: all) went with a play on the fact that "spread" could applied to your legs, and that "HD" sounded a lot like "VD." The correct question, however, was "How the hell is this working so well" or "Surely Jay's just getting lucky here, right?"

Answer: Joe Tiller's Mustache

Full points to Maize n' Brew, who knew that whenever Joe Tiller's name is invoked, the correct answer is always:

Answer: The Color Purple

The correct question, of course, was "What is the classic novel by Alice Walker chronicling the life of Celie, a poor black woman in the rural South." Christ, do none of you read?

We also accepted "The color of Pat Fitzgerald's penis"

Answer: Brains

Full points all around here, as most took this softball and lobbed it out of the park. The correct answer was "What's for dinner?"

Answer: Hawkeye State

Hawkeye State is not Iowa, nor is it the "state" of fans of Iowa. I thought this was clear, and apparently it wasn't. I meant Iowa Blogger "Hawkeye State" of BHGP. We would have accepted anything involving an Elephant Walk.

Answer: Rudy

We accepted both Varsity Blue's succinct response of "Shitty Midget" as well as Happy Hour Valley's more lengthy response of "Who is a giant douche that managed to be the subject of an “inspiring film” about his lame-ass story of walking on to America’s most hated college football team and going from towel boy to getting a sack in his final home game despite being offsides?"

Answer: Knee Ligaments

The correct response was, of course, "aaaaaaaaaairgggggg" or any variation thereof.

Answer: Terrelle Pryor

Varsity Blue, again: "Why am: I fucking terrified of Ohio State?"

We also would have accepted any variation of "dumbo" "radar ears" or "holy hell this kid is going to destroy everything in his path for the next 3 years god-damnit why the hell does Ohio State get these kids, Columbus isn't even that cool, fuuuuuuck."

Answer: Mark May

Ground Zero East Lansing sums it up thusly: "Who is the biggest benefactor of the "Ugly Friend" effect? You know the theory - all sets of girls have one ugly friend that makes the others look better by comparison. Who is Mark May's ugly friend? You guessed it...Lou Holtz"

Answer: Rich Rodriguez

Boiled Sports: Who fooled Michigan?

Well played, for this season.

And that wraps up the wrap up. Sorry for the delay, and enjoy your Monday!

There's No Justice In This World Anymore

2008-10-11T15:44:00.007-04:00

For centuries and centuries, people have searched the ends of the Earth for proof of a higher power... today they need look no further. There is in fact a God, and he just so happens to hate the University of Michigan Wolverines Football team.

No further words are necessary, we all knew this would be a building process, but I couldn't have been more wrong in my preseason outlook. I'll stand up and take it like a man: I WAS WRONG. Completely and totally wrong. Biasedly and hope-filled-optimistically wrong. I thought a young offense that had some talent could manage to gel and become competent. I thought a pretty highly recruited QB would be serviceable enough to lead this team. I thought an experienced and very-talented-on-paper defense could step it up and let this team grow a bit without costing us games. The offense hasn't gelled, which is a shame because the way some guys like Martavious Odoms and Sam McGuffie are playing, if the surrounding cast were ANY better, they would be legitimate stars and the offensive unit would at least be functional. God, however, feels it necessary to ensure that every pass poor Nick Sheridan throws is tipped and picked off. The world is a funny place.

Some blame the system, but of all the turnovers that this team has lost, how many can anyone possibly attribute to a system change? 25%? Maybe? Today, AGAIN, turnovers cost Michigan a football game. It's nauseating... nay, it's soul crushing. It's one thing to get outplayed, it's entirely different to simply gift-wrap a football game... week after week. The defense has gotten worse the past two weeks after a masterpiece of a performance against Wisconsin. Apparently after beating a top 10 team, we respond by forgetting how to tackle, bring pressure, and wrap up. Our offense goes in spurts and bursts, and then it seems like we forget that "hey, we moved right down the field by throwing downfield!" for the rest of the afternoon.

Someone somewhere this week will say: "Hey, the D only gave up 6 points" and someone else will likely say, "yeah that's right!". That's true, but they also let the opponent march all over the field, they let them dig out of terrible field position (Zoltan with another tremendous game by the by) time and again. When this team need something, anything to provide a spark, the defense didn't respond. When they would correctly diagnose a play and be there behind the line of scrimmage, they would arm tackle or flat out whiff and turn a 2 yard loss into a 6 yard gain... time and again.

This team is playing worse now than it was in week one, this defense was worse this week than they were last week, which I didn't think was possible. This was a truly terrible team we lost to today, which makes us... well for right now: worse than truly terrible.

Tol... I can't even type it.... the opponent ran the same THREE PLAYS all day, and we declined to stop any of them. Every time they stacked the wideouts, shockingly it was a halfback draw... and yet everytime, we lined up with three down-linemen and only one linebacker anywhere in the same zipcode as the middle of the field... which suffice to say, is not the best way to stop runs up the middle of the field. Their only receiver set a Michigan Stadium record today by doing the following: running 7 yards downfield and stopping. Convienantly, no one felt this player in the other uniform was worth the time or effort to cover, and less convienantly, their QB is in fact capable of hitting a stationary target a mere 10 yards away. This strategy worked out for them to the tune of 20 receptions. 20. Yes, as in one more than 19.

In fact, had the opponent decided to not get so tricksy on 3rd and short throughout the game, it is likely that they would've won by a previously unthinkable margin. The third play was one where trips would line up to one side, the QB would sprint out to that side... stop turn around and throw to a back who had slid out the other way, and find him sitting there with nary a defender tween him and his goal. This is a defensive line that is one of the most loaded in the conference... so what do we do? We play three down linemen all day. Then what do we do? We top that nice bowl of ice cream with the warm chocolate syrup of a soft zone... mmmm mmmm!

How fitting is it that a team that has struggled so badly all year would lose by the following:
- A 101 yard interception return for their only TD of the game, and losing the turnover battle to the tune of -3
- A kicker's career long 48 yard FG that lands on the crossbar and goes through
- A missed 26 yard FG by a guy who simply didn't miss last season

There will be misery laden breakdown upon misery laden breakdown... but it's very simple: if you can't tackle, you can't block, you can't keep the football in your possession, and you can't hit receivers when they're open, you can't win football games. Schemes and play-calling and personnel will all be dissected to the microscopic level, but if you can't perform basic activities of the game we call football, all that other crap is for naught. The greatest plays in the world won't work if you can't do anything proficiently outside of snapping the football.

Logical and constructive criticism is well deserved, this team got embarrassed last week, they got called soft... and they come out this week and do this? It will be interesting to see what adjectives are used this week. I can think of many, but am trying to remain somewhat detached and somewhat reasonable... There will also be the nonsense and roof-jumping-woe-is-us type of commentary that will become more and more difficult to tolerate. Unfortunately, the realities of this situation still don't make losing football games any easier.

Further proof that God has a sense of sick humor? The program on the BTN after this game? 90 minutes all devoted to the past greatness of Michigan Football. Sadly, I can't even bring myself to watch it.

How are we rewarded? We now get to take this non-cohesive mass that some might call a team on the road to State College, PA... possibly without our best player, and I get to honor plans that have been in place for a while and will watch the 99.99999999% certain undressing in person. I understand that this team is young, I understand that we are going through a monumental shift... what I simply cannot understand is why it is that this team has suddenly forgotten how to do even the most basic of fundamentals. Michigan isn't losing because they can't run some complex play... Michigan is losing because they can't execute enough separate fundamentals to actually make plays, even the most basic plays, work.

College football can be pure extasy at times, but right now? Nothing but agony. I understand that this team simply isn't that good, but they way they're losing football games goes well beyond that, it goes to a level that I've never before witnessed. I will try to recall this several years from now when the death butterfly (ht: Brian... or as some might call him, Brain) emerges from the cocoon that this horrifyingly ugly larva is currently trying to form, but right now, there's just not much optimism left.

But I'll still be there next week, ready and waiting, screaming and hoping that we manage to put together a football game. Why? Because there's a quote that's at the heart of Michigan tradition, not the superficial crap that some people call "tradition", but actual tradition:

"True loyalty is that quality of service that grows under adversity and expands in defeat. Any street urchin can shout applause in victory, but it takes character to stand fast in defeat. One is noise - the other, loyalty." -Fielding Yost

There will certainly be better days, and if they'd like to give us a sneak peak of those days sometime over the coming weeks, that'd be wonderful.

GO BLUE!

Mea Culpa

2008-10-11T08:25:00.002-04:00

Apologies all around, lack of posting this week, particularly the weekly TGULP, is on my shoulders. Though it's tempting to think I crawled into a hole of sorrow and despair after last week's total breakdown in Ann Arbor, I promise that is not the case. A recent change in schedule has put time at a premium, and once things settle down just a tad normal posting should resume. Again, apologies and enjoy today's slate of games...

FIRE UP, IT'S SATURDAY!!!

For What It's Worth

2008-10-10T11:16:00.003-04:00

For what it's worth, I tried. But, try as I may, I cannot force my internet connection to be anything more than brief and weak. Thus, the BXI Blogger Roundtable wrap-up must be delayed until tomorrow, which is fine, really because tomorrow is Saturday, and I know that you'll all be ready to read something fresh after your games anyways.

Apologies all around - it's not often that life intercedes, but when it does it comes with the fury.

Functionality Update

2008-10-08T11:05:00.006-04:00

Please press play before reading this post:

First, I am hosting the Roundtables this week, as you may have seen from your various stops along the information super highway. Recently, I've thought the roundtable questions had gotten a bit repetitive and so-forth, so I decided to switch things up and make them Jeopardy style - with me providing the answers, and the various BTB'ers supplying the questions. Results have been mixed so far - full report on Friday. The "answers" are:

1) Jay Paterno and the Spread HD

2) Joe Tiller's Mustache

3) The Color Purple

4) Brains

5) Hawkeye State

6) Rudy

7) Knee Ligaments

8) Terrell Pryor

9) Mark May

10) Rich Rodriguez

Feel free to leave your best "question" pertaining to any of these answers in the comments section. I'll probably bump a few of them in the wrap-up post if they're any good.

Second, The Daily Gopher has been running a Big Ten games Pick'em that I've been participating in behind the scenes. I was in 2nd place until a disasterous Saturday. I'm now, like, in 12th or something. Either way, you can always check the standings at TDG if you're so inclined.

Third, I will be travelling tomorrow and Friday, and posting may be light, depending on Champ's schedule. I will have the Roundtable wrap up on Friday, but that's it in terms of regularly scheduled broadcasting. The good news is that I will be travelling to the Clemson vs. Wake Forest Thursday night game. Look for me on TV - I look awesome in High Def. A full tailgate/game experience report will be forthcoming.

Fourth, given the dearth of Wisconsin blogs, I was asked some questions about the upcoming Penn State vs. Wisconsin game by friend of the blog Zombie Nation. If you're craving some Beauford (and who isn't?) run over there for my take on the game.

Juice Williams: Purveyor of Pain

2008-10-07T09:39:00.006-04:00

Illinois fans will tell you that when you put the ball in Juice's hands, somebody is gonna die. There's a good chance that Juice will line up that defense staring at him and rifle down each member in different, awesomely soul-crushing ways. There's an equal chance that in an attempt to do just that, he'll get the business end of the rifle all twisted around and end up massacring his own team, cheerleaders, and half of those in attendance. Somebody's gonna die indeed.

This Saturday, Juice got it right.

That may be an enormous understatement. Juice got it more right than any player ever has in the history of players playing football against Michigan at Michigan Stadium. Player.

That's surprising to me, almost stunning in the wake of two performances last year that left my jaw hanging on the floor. Armani Edwards and Dennis Dixon eviscerated, re-viscerated, then eviscerated one more time good measure, the Wolverines last year. And Juice Williams holds the record for most beat-down given by a single player? Yes. Yes he does. He played the role of Running Back, Quarterback, and Executioner.

And that's something to remember as Illinois rolls through this season. Every once in awhile, Juice points that rifle at you and mows you down. It happened to Ohio State last year - who managed to contain the explosion just enough not to get blown out. It happened to Michigan this year. My guess is that the next team to take Juice and the Illini offense as lightly as Michigan did will be the next victim. They're probably not the best team in the Big Ten, but Illinois can make noise - and the rest of their schedule had better be ready for it.

Kiillllllllllll!!

Is Northwestern Really the Worst 5-0 Team in the Country?

2008-10-03T10:16:00.004-04:00

[editor's note: I wrote the bulk of this prior to South Florida's upset last night. The upset doesn't render anything obsolete, but is mildly annoying. Also, this post includes only teams that are 5-0, the qualifying standard being 5 wins - not being undefeated.]

BHGP, purveyors of Iowa Football and to a lesser extent Black Tar Heroin, called Northwestern the "worst 4-0 team in the nation" in the events leading up to their soul-crushing defeat at the hands of the purple helmet. Despite the loss, BHGP forged ahead, saying the following:

"Northwestern is now the worst 5-0 team in all of college football history after Iowa took a 17-3 lead late in the first half, then committed a series of unforced errors that allowed Northwestern to come back and win."

Hyperbole aside, I spent the remainder of the day wondering if there was any way to statistically prove (or disprove) that statement. As readers of this blog will know, I've been unusually high on Northwestern compared to many of my peers and almost all of major sports media. Northwestern does indeed sit, along with 6 other teams, at 5-0. But are they the worst 5-0 team in the country?

The Contenders

Northwestern
Penn State
Alabama
UConn
South Florida
Utah
Ball State

Rankings

The first thing to look at when trying to determine the worst 5-0 team in the country is, simply, rankings. The AP poll ranks the 5-0 teams thusly:

Alabama (2)
Penn State (6)
South Florida (10)
Utah (15)
Connecticut (24)
Ball State (not ranked - 29)
Northwestern (not ranked - 30)

The coaches poll is in the same order, except that Northwestern and Ball State are switched up at the bottom, with Northwestern knocking on the door of being ranked, and Ball State mired in the "others receiving votes" category. In the two major polls, the battle for worst is clearly fought between Ball State and Northwestern. However, since this is a blog, we would be remiss not to include the blogpoll, which has the teams ranked in the same order, except that Northwestern is actually #25, while Ball State is firmly entrenched in "others receiving votes." That's three polls, two of which have Ball State as being the worst 5-0 team in the country, not Northwestern. This, however, is of questionable use because there are countless polls out there, and to say that two of three arbitrarily picked polls have Northwestern slightly ahead of Ball State is far from anything close to empiracal. However, it needs to be noted that both bloggers and the MSM think that the battle for worst 5-0 team is going to be fought between Ball State and Northwestern.

Resume

Let's take a look at the team-by-team resume of the contenders:

Alabama: Bama has the strongest resume of anyone is College Football. They are immediately disgarded as a contender, both for this reason and common sense reasons.

Penn State: Penn State has a home win over Illinois to its name. Other than that, they've played cupcakes, Oregon State's win over USC be damned. However, Illinois was ranked when they played, and Oregon State could be better than we think, although I kinda doubt it. Having watched Penn State play, however, I think they're stronger than South Florida, UConn, and the rest save for maybe Utah and Alabama. They are removed from consideration.

UConn: UConn is the closest to "Ball State and Northwestern" territory in the rankings, so a weak resume could vault them right back into contention. Their five victories are over the following teams:

Hofstra
@ Temple
Virginia
Baylor
@ Louisville

This is a weak slate of teams who probably won't be bowling this winter. Only Louisville and Baylor have shown any life, and UConn almost found a way to lose to both. UConn definitely stays in contention with this resume.

South Florida: Sure, they're a top ten team, but Champ had his concerns about the Bulls early, saying

"Champ voices disagreement with B2 for the second consecutive week regarding the Bulls who reside in the Southern region of Florida. Again, I think there's a number of teams out there that would beat USF right now, and that number is larger than nine."

Rankings-wise, they are a top ten team, but that is largely due to attrition at the top - not dominating performances by South Florida. South Florida, this is your resume:

Tennessee Martin (ed. - who?)
@ UCF
#13 Kansas
@ Florida International
@ NC State

Not exactly a run of prime mathcups, but not as weak as Penn State's cake-fest either. I haven't been sold on Kansas at all but the fact remains that they are still ranked #16, so that win counts in the quality column. Also, the Bulls have managed to win on the road 3 times. South Florida's resume, IMO, takes them out of contention for worst 5-0 team. (ed. - again, I wrote this before their loss last night. South Florida is now the best 5-1 team in the country. Also the only 5-1 team in the country.)

Utah: Utah is a good team that both Champ and I were high on from the start. Their resume looks like this:

@ Michigan
UNLV
@ Utah State
@ Air Force
Weber State

Take out UNLV and Weber State, and you've got a pretty good resume, especially given that nearly all their tough games have been on the road. This resume eliminates them from contention. Utah - you are not the worst 5-0 team in the country (ed. - Utah is now the only 6-0 team in the country, which, unlike South Florida, strengthens my assertion).

Ball State and Northwestern: Now we're getting down to the nitty-gritty. 4 teams have strong enough resumes to be removed from consideration. Since these two teams appear to be the leading contenders (with UConn closing...) we'll look at them together. Ball State's resume looks like this:

Northeastern
Navy
@ Akron
@ Indiana
Kent State

Compared to Northwestern's

Syracuse
@ Duke
Southern Illinois
Ohio
@ Iowa

There isn't much to sway the argument either way. You could almost look at it like this:

Syracuse = Northeastern
Duke = Navy
Southern Illinois = Akron
Ohio = Kent State
Iowa = Indiana

I would say that Navy is probably better than Duke, but by the same token, Iowa is probably better than Indiana. It's a wash. Neither team has a signature win, which is why they are both still leading contenders. After the resume section, it's a three horse race between UConn, Ball State, and Northwestern.

Statistical Comparisons

Given that all three teams remaining have eearily similar resumes, it's safe to say that the strength of the opponents have been relatively equal for all three teams. As such, a statistical comparison should yeild some good results. Let's do a quick rundown of some major catagories:

Points Per Game:
Ball State - 41.4
Northwestern - 25.0
UConn - 29.8

Yards Per Play:
Ball State - 7.1
Northwestern - 5.1
UConn - 5.6

Rushing Yards Per Game:
Ball State - 185 YPG
Northwestern - 149 YPG
UConn - 255 YPG

Passing Yards Per Game:
Ball State - 285.4 YPG
Northwestern - 213 YPG
UConn - 138 YPG

The takeaway offensively is that Ball State has the best, most well rounded offense. UConn can rush the ball, but can't (or won't) throw it. Northwestern, however, is last in every catagory except for passing yards, and as such, Northwestern takes the lead for worst 5-0 team. Let's look at the defense.

Yards Allowed Per Game:
Ball State - 384.6
Northwestern - 319.8
UConn - 314.4

Scoring Defense PPG
Ball State - 20.2 PPG
Northwestern - 12.4 PPG
UConn - 14.2 PPG

Turnover Margin
Ball State - 0.6
Northwestern - 0.6
UConn - 0.0

Defensively, it's Northwestern carrying the torch, allowing a measly 12.4 points per game. With that defense, its no wonder the Wildcats offense doesn't have to do much. Meanwhile, Ball State's defense is bordering on awful - relying heavily on their offense to light it up. UConn remains decidedly "meh" defensively. Both Ball State and Northwestern are in the positives for turnover margins, which is good.

Combine the fact that UConn has a barely stronger resume, and doesn't find themselves on the extreme short end of the stick statistically, we can eliminate them from contention.

The Takeaway

It's between Ball State and Northwestern for sure - just like the polls said it was. Northwestern has the 9th best scoring defense in the country, while Ball State has the 13th best scoring offense in the country. Meanwhile, Ball State's scoring defense registers at 45th in the coutry. Northwestern's offense fares no better, clocking in at the 75th best scoring offense.

Since Northwestern's offense takes the cake for ineffeciency, it is indeed safe to say that Northwestern is the worst 5-0 team in college football.

They shouldn't, however, be taken lightly by any conference foe. As long as their defense comes to play, the Wildcats will be in contention to win every game.

BTB Roundtable Questions: We Didn't Write These Questions Edition

2008-10-02T09:31:00.003-04:00

Onward and upward, my Big Ten friends! We forge ahead, never daunted, into the formerly uncharted waters of the Buckeye Psyche. That's right - this week's questions are courtesy of Our Honor Defend, a Buckeye blog that - get this - takes its name from the fight song! Clever girl. Then again, we take our name from...wait...where did we get this name? Champ? Is this really the only game that matters? I mean - there are plenty of games that matter more: the game of life, the game of love, the most dangerous game...maybe we need a fight song.

Either way, here we are, nomenclature be damned.

On to the questions!

01. We're all basically in conference play now, sans Purdue who played
visitor to Notre Dame over the weekend. What did you see in the
conference opener that you liked? What did you see that sucked
noodles? If you're one of the Purdue blogs, what did you see against
Notre Dame that has you nervous (or even optimistic) for your
conference opener against Penn State this Saturday? Oh, and, have fun
with that game, by the way.

There isn't a Wisconsin blogger of any reliability here in this group, so I'll take on Wisconsin:

What I liked: I liked the defensive line. They were blowing UM off the ball in the first half, and were the primary reason for the obvious disruption in the UM offense. Offensively, Everidge didn't have a bad day, it's just that his major mistake went for 6 the other way. He also had a ton of pressure in his face from UM's own defensive line. I liked how our defense forced turnovers - even if Michigan helped a ton.

What I didn't like: FUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUUCK. There. Now that's out of the way. Rationally, I didn't like the playcalling. Michigan was blitzing a ton and we didn't make them pay. I think (correct me if I'm wrong) the first screen play that we set up went for 40 yards or so. Too bad that was in the 4th quarter. Also, I didn't like the penalties. On two separate occasions, penalties (a roughing the passer and the ineligible receiver) allowed Michigan to maintain a drive, or stop us from scoring. If more restraint (or just plain common sense) is used on either play - UM has a much, much harder time winning that ball game. Finally, I saw warning signs from the secondary. On several occasions, UM had a guy deep with a step. Threet couldn't make us pay; others will.

Also - sucking noodles is fun, impolite, and delicious. Never shall the term "sucking noodles" be used to connote a bad thing again.

02. Ole Miss punked #4 Florida in Gainesville. #1 USC got punked by
Oregon State on national television? What's the underlying theme
behind these bizarre upsets? You guessed it: magic. Some kind of
hocus-y pocus-y sorcery in the form of "familiarity". The idea being
pitched around is that these upsets come in conference games because
the underdog has played the heavily favored team before, and thus
isn't afraid of them nor surprised by anything they do. Should I buy
this idea? Or are these upsets more likely the combination of
something more conventional, like great/horrendous gameplanning,
preparation and execution by the underdog/favorite team respectively?

That question, when properly sorted, simply asks "why do significantly outmatched teams beat really really talented teams?"

As always, I have a theory.

I think that a great deal of "winning" comes from the play of the linemen on both sides of the ball. If the offensive line is getting a good push, the offense works - it's that simple. The Quarterback could be primed to have the game of his life, if pass protection isn't there, he won't be successful. A Tailback could be ready to carry for 212 yards on 47 rushes - if the run blocking isn't there, he won't be successful. The offense stops and starts with the offensive line. A lot of times, I think these linemen get ready to face a team that they've deemed - despite their coache's instance to the contrary - weak, and expect a walk-through. Meanwhile, on the other side of the line, the previously named "weak" line is getting ready for the game of their life.

Look at USC: Sanchez was running for his life for the majority of the game. His offensive line came out expecting to dominate, found out that those defensive guys are D-1 players too, and they're really really trying, and couldn't switch it on in time to save the defeat. Same with USC's defensive line - which is why they allowed mini-back to run all over them.

The bottom line (get it?) is this: If the linemen come to a game expecting to push around the opposition at practice speed, that team is primed for an upset. It almost happened when Ohio State played Ohio, it did happen when USC played the other OSU, and it will happen again this season.

03. Entering the season, Beanie was the Big Ten's Heisman favorite.
After a few games, Javon Ringer had put up the Heisman stats, though I
don't think anyone could've believed that Ringer would have the hype
machine necessary to get him to New York. Yet, after this week, I see
his name mentioned more and more in the Heisman race. Do you think
Ringer, at this pace, gets to New York on something more than a
courtesy visit (on courtesy visit, see: everyone last year not named
Tim Tebow; everyone in 2006 not named Troy Smith)? How about Daryll
Clark? Is Daryll Clark of Penn State legitimately in the Heisman race
after week 5?

Ringer might get a nice trip to New York and a front-row seat to watch the Heisman get handed to SEC/B12 QB de jour. I've written before that the Heisman, almost exclusively, goes to the best quarterback on a conference championship contending team. It takes a very, very special runningback or wideout to win that award - and although I like Ringer - Reggie Bush he ain't.

04. With the nonconference schedule basically over, do you think the
Big Ten collectively bettered its standing from the maligned position
it was in before the season began? For every Wisconsin victory over
Fresno State and Penn State thrashing of Oregon State, there's
Michigan's turnover bonanza against the Irish and Ohio State's
neutering by USC. Long question short, what sticks out more: the
positives or the negatives for the conference?

No, no, and no. This non-conference season simply re-enforced the fact* that the Big Ten is a middle of the road BCS conference.

05. As I'm sure you may have seen on your moving pictures box, the
Ernie Davis movie has been getting a lot of publicity for its imminent
release to theatres. The story, of course, centers around the first
African-American Heisman winner and some of the trials that come from
being a black athlete, playing before the Civil Rights movement and
playing in the Cotton Bowl. Does your football program have an
uplifting story that you think is movie-worthy? If so, please share
it.

In 1998, a player named Josh discovered a rocket-arm, and made the team as a walk-on. As he was still only a walk-on, he had to earn his stripes, practicing throws in the back yard to his Golden Retriever, Buddy. Soon, however, he discovered that Buddy could make all the impossible catches, and was a better receiver than those on his team. The two combined to make an unstoppable force on the football field. However, an evil duo of Russian circus-managers attempt to kidnap Buddy and use him as their main attraction, while Josh's team makes it to the championship. Can Josh save Buddy before the big game?

Find out here!

Seriously though - Tom Harmon rocked pretty hard. Would love to see a movie about his life.

*The Big Ten is not the ACC, or the Big East - so we've got that going for us. However, from top to bottom, I think the Big Ten hold their own with the Pac-10, gets beat soundly by the b12, and gets crushed by the SEC. I've railed against this line of thinking for a long time, but this year especially, the Big Ten just isn't that strong.