The Easy Way Out

This hasn't been a particularly fun football season.

It has had its moments, sure, but on the whole, it's not fun to watch your team get beaten every week in new and exciting ways. Combine losing, which sucks, with the fact that every team that beats you has been waiting for years to do so, and you get what most Michigan fans are going through. No amount of "what about the previous six years?" will rub out the Spartan's smug grin. No amount of "winningest college football program" will stop the text messaging from random "friends" who probably wouldn't even be talking to you except that you're a Michigan fan and it's your turn in the barrel. Even my NFL team of choice (Colts), who for so long could be relied on to numb (slightly) any Michigan loss, kind of suck this year.

I commiserated with a Notre Dame fan this weekend, who assured me that "things would get better." Yeesh.

I thought (and said so in print) that this Michigan team would finally put all the pieces together against Michigan State. Their relative weakness played into our relative strength, Michigan seemed to have found something with Minor, and on the whole the team appeared ready to take a step forward and make 60 minutes of football happen. They didn't; It didn't; My bad.

As a fan, there is only so much you can do. You can whine, you can stare at a blank computer screen's blinking cursor for an hour, you can break things. I've done all three over the course of this season. I have nothing to show for it except a few posts that never got posted (thankfully), an annoyed girlfriend, and a cracked screen on my cell phone. Those are the culminated results of my being a Michigan fan this sesaon. Hardly impressive.

I am not an apologist. There are certainly things that I wished were handled differently with the switch to Rodriguez, and there are probably more things that I wish were handled better. The easy way out, if you're a Michigan fan, is to blame the entire thing on the coaching staff. The 3rd and long = Death is certainly Schafer's fault. The offensive woes are purely due to Rodriguez's stubborn insistence on imposing his offensive scheme.

I get that. I know that, for those who love Michigan, this season is almost impossibly hard to take. As a result, you see a certain distancing by those who love this team. By blaming the coaching staff, you can say "It's not my team; those aren't my guys." It's a survival technique. Most of the Michigan blogosphere has been resoundingly against employing this technique because the preponderance of evidence suggests that the team will, eventually, be very good with this exact coaching staff in place. I fall into that camp. However, it is hard to begrudge anyone for doing something that simply allows them to get through the day; week; month without feeling too down. This season, if it makes you feel better to blame the new coaching staff, just go ahead and do it - as long as you realize what it is: a survival technique aimed at distancing yourself from the program so that you don't hurt as much when they lose.

You're taking the easy way out, and that's well and good. In fact, there are several message boards around these internets that will allow you to vent all you want about how things should be different, and how we'd be 7-1 with Les Miles and his giant balls.

For those not taking the easy way out, it's going to be rough. I don't see this team winning many more games. In fact, I don't really see this team winning any more games. My advice is to turn off your cell phone, stay the hell away from the internet, and go do something outside. Watch Michigan play on Saturday, and afterwards, do something fun.

If that sounds hollow, it's because it is.

Guarantee Games

[ed. - I was writing this in an airport, and hit the post button right as the last of my flight was boarding. As such, "guarantee" was misspelled in the title. Thanks for letting me know, jerks.]

All bets are off if Nick Sheridan sees significant playing time. What is significant? Let's say...2 drives worth. If Nick Sheridan plays 2 drives worth of football, then all bets are off.

What an odd way to start a post

Agreed. But when you're going out on an already shaky limb, it's best to be sure that the precious little support you do have is firmly entrenched. If the limb is broken to begin with, you can't be at fault when it collapses.

Still not getting it - despite aid of cliche metaphor

Ok, fine. Here we go: Michigan is going to beat Michigan State tomorrow. I'm saying it, I'm putting it on record, and I'm putting it in print. I'll say it again in italics, for emphasis: Michigan is going to beat Michigan State tomorrow.

Any particular reason?

I thought that despite the 2nd half implosion, there were several things that Michigan could take away from that Penn State game that were positive. First, you had the unveiling of Minor at tailback, who (as Champ pointed out) had Anthony Scirrotto firmly on his ass being dragged downfield at several points during the game. McGuffie's done a lot of great things with the ball this season, but gaining those crucial extra 3 yards after contact hasn't been one of them. Forget all the BS "Minor runs with anger!" and "Minor runs with purpose!" type exclamations - Minor gets yards after contact, and when your offense struggles with things like "positive yardage" this is a huge, huge asset.

Ok, so you've got a guy who can run the ball. Still not seeing it.

In baseball, it's often the sign of a pitcher's command and "stuff" when he starts throwing first pitch strikes. If a pitcher, especially a young pitcher, can gain an 0-1 count, it allows him to do things with the following pitches that he couldn't do if he had thrown a first pitch ball. Alternatively, a first pitch strike puts the batter on his heels, so to speak, and in instant "protect the plate" mode, lest he go down 0-2.

I hate baseball

None withstanding, when Michigan's offense gains positive yards on first down, it's like throwing that first pitch strike. Go back and look at some of Mgoblog's UFR's. When Michigan picks up positive yardage on first down, the result is a more opened playbook. The defense can't key off on one or two plays that they know are coming in a 2nd and long situation. Just like a young pitcher, this young offense is borderline effective (gasp!) when they gain yards on first down. Now, typically, this wouldn't be something worth following, as good offenses usually get positive yards on first down, but, uh, this isn't a good offense. To wit: in the first half against Penn State, the UFR shows only 3 plays that went for negative yardage. Only one of those plays was on first down. In the 2nd half when Michigan was totally shut-down? There were a total of 6 plays that went for negative yardage, 3 of which were on 1st down. Oh - and Brian stopped charting with 13 minutes to go in the 4th quarter. First half: limited loss of yardage, especially on first down. Result: 17 points. Second half: Lots of negative yardage, more on first down. Result: 0 points. Positive yards, especially on first down, is the lifeblood of this team.

What makes you think that "first half Michigan" will come out all game? Seems to me that there is a good chance that "second half Michigan" is just as plausible.

The short anwer to this is that yes, there is a chance that second half Michigan will rear its ugly head. However, given the data that I've looked at, I think there are several very good factors that will allow first half Michigan to rule the day.

First, Michigan State is allowing just over 6 yards per carry on the season. Combine this with the fact that Michigan has, apparently, just "found" a running game with Minor, and you've got a combination that, in my opinion, leads to positive yards, especially on first down when Rodriguez is presumably going to run the ball with the zone-read-stretch business. Michigan won't score on every drive, but I think that negative plays will be extremely limited given MSU's relative weakness on run-defense.

Ok, so maybe you'll score points, but last time I checked, Michigan's defense wasn't exactly shut down.

True. But look at how Michigan State gets their yards: Javon Ringer runs into the line for about 3 yards, and Brandon Hoyer gets lucky throwing into double coverage. That may be an exaggeration, but Brain Hoyer isn't really that good. He is just shy of 50% completion percentage, and has thrown 4 INT's. Ringer will probably get his yards by carrying the ball 40+ times for 3 yards a pop, and that will probably lead to some long scoring drives. If Michigan's linebackers continue to arm tackle the air surrounding ball carriers, this could be more, but this is the exact offense that Michigan's defense is good at stopping. With Ringer doing his thing, the MSU offense is capable of moving the ball, but when the offense gets into situations in which Ringer doesn't factor as being a threat, they suck. Michigan should be able to put them in those situations, especially early.

One thing I am scared of is the screen game. Michigan has been susceptible to screens going for long TD's all season, and I somehow doubt that D'Antonio has missed that in film...

You still haven't really convinced me

That's because I think this thing is going to be close. Brian at Mgo put into print a feeling that you get sometimes when you're looking at data. It's a "wow, I guess I really have to think this, don't I?" The answer is that, if the data points that way, yes, you do.

Of course, the problem is that data relies on past performance, and that predicting on data alone relies on those past performances manifesting themselves in the current game. This is not always the case.

The bottom line is that I believe that Michigan has a good shot at winning this football game. Given the data I've looked at, I believe Michigan will win this football game.

Whatever dude. You're crazy

Probably.

High Hopes

Somewhere, someone is saying "what a stupid title, look at your team." I have looked at my team sir, and I'm not changing the title because it works on multiple levels.

Encumbered forever by desire and ambition, there's a hunger still unsatisfied Our weary eyes still stray to the horizon, though down this road we've been so many times.

Yep, we're going down that road, we're going to use song lyrics (albeit good ones) to convey a point. Why? Because it's apt, that's why.

Saturday's contest at Happy Valley was a stunningly effective synopsis of where this football team is right now. To boil it down as succinctly as possible, I 100% believe the following:
When this football team executes, it is capable of beating ANYONE in the country. When this football team fails to execute, it is capable of losing to ANYONE in the country.

That is where we are right now. For 26 minutes on Saturday, a 2-4 Michigan team that was supposed to be a sacrificial lamb for the homecoming crowd in State College, PA came out and punched the #3 Nittany Lions square in the mouth. They outplayed them on both sides of the ball and looked good doing it. 1st quarter stats? 12 minutes of possession, 189 yards. Dominance. With a group of 18 and 19 year-old kids, a patched together O-line, and a suddenly awakened Brandon Minor, the Michigan offense controlled the football game. Penn State was damn lucky to put up 14 points in the first half. A missed tackle and two bone-headed penalties let a solid football team back into a game at home, something we simply do not have the luxury of doing right now. Michigan's struggles came not from being thoroughly outmatched by a superior Penn State team. Rather, as has been the case more often than not this year, Michigan's wounds were self-inflicted. From the first PSU TD to the game-turning safety and subsequent kick out of bounds, too many unforced errors were made to overcome. Penn State then did what good teams do, and put the game out of reach in emphatic fashion.

Once Threet was forced out of the game, all of us in the Michigan section looked at each other with an expression that is sadly all too familiar to those of us of the Maize and Blue persuasion. Like when Hart went down in '05 or Henne in '07, we knew we were in trouble. This team is too young and too inexperienced and too thin at positions like, say, quarterback, to be able to overcome losses like that against a team like Penn State. What happened happened, the Penn State fans rejoiced as though the last 12 years never took place, and we walked out of the stadium shaking our heads at what could've possibly been. If I could change one call, I would've slammed into the line and punted instead of letting Sheridan drop back on 3rd and 20 from the shadow of our own goal-post, but that's neither here nor there at this point.

Quick aside: Penn State is a good football team, don't get me wrong, but I don't walk away from Saturday thinking that they're a top 3 team, and I don't walk away from Saturday thinking they'll beat Ohio State in Columbus. But back to the topic at hand...

This is where the hopes come in, this is where I can sit back and look and say, "you know what, this team is going to be good, damn good in fact." It might not be this year, it might not even be next year, but this staff, and this system, will succeed. Seven games into a miserable year, the improvement is noticeable, the effectiveness of a trimmed down Rodriguez offensive system is apparent, the adjustments were there, the team clicked and moved the ball and looked good doing it. They brought forth an effective gameplan that cut out many of the ineffective behind the LOS passes that have hindered this offense earlier this year. Michigan powered between the tackles, they threw to the tight ends, they used Steven Threet's legs to hold the Penn State D in check, and they looked downfield in the passing game. The execution, when there, is something to see, especially when you factor in the youth and current make-up of the team. The mistakes are confounding and extremely frustrating, but they are fixable.

I walk away from Saturday knowing the following:

1. Threet is a capable quarterback in this offense. Ideal? No. But he's been effective when healthy and has more than 0.2 seconds to make throws. He was surgical in the first half, and I believe had he not gotten dinged up, would've continued marching the football... Once he stopped keeping the ball on the read-option (presumably from aforementioned dinged-upness), the run game started to sputter because the D could simply key on Minor.

2. We have no depth at QB. God love Nick Sheridan, he has been thrown into some of the most horrifying situations this season, but he simply doesn't have the same ability to move the football like Threet does. Threet with backups in Beaver and Forcier next season is not a bad thing in the least.

3. Taking points one and two, we're in a huge world of hurt if Threet isn't ready to go this upcoming Saturday. Given Sheridan's struggles in moving the offense... and I HATE to be this guy, but perhaps if Threet can't play, do we give Feagin an opportunity? I'm not the coach, I don't see the practices, but I wouldn't be upset to see him get a chance if Threet (God forbid) can't go.

4. Evan Royster is a heck of a tailback, tremendous patience and some good ol' fashioned toughness and speed. Hats off to him.

5. Brandon Minor finally put all of those flashes of brilliance into something consistent and sustained, and holy hell was it impressive. Anthony Scirrotto spent most of his day on his back and being carried downfield.

6. The defense picked up the blitizing and was more effective at getting into the backfield... BUT, this defense still gives up too many big plays (this is nothing new) and misses too many tackles. I also do not understand the reasoning behind only playing three down-linemen when we're so loaded on the D-line.

7. I was wrong about this defense in the preseason. They're capable, and have been put in a number of terrible situations over the season... but they aren't the shutdown unit capable of carrying an offense that is either completely on or completely off. The safety play hasn't been good enough, and frankly, neither has the play of our corners. We're so concerned about not giving up the deep ball, that we let teams get 10-12 out routes at will... sometimes we're getting caught in zones

8. I'm glad we have Rich Rodriguez as our football coach.

Penn State walked out of that stadium Saturday with the promise of an unforgettable season still in tow, their fanbase not quite sure what to do with themselves. Michigan walked out knowing they had a top ranked team on the ropes at home and flittered the opportunity away... but they walk away knowing that even now, they can play with anybody. It's not a victory, and for most that means it's not good enough, but right now, that's what we've got, and that's what we have to build on.

Bring on Sparty... and GO BLUE!

Don't Panic

"In many of the more relaxed civilizations on the Outer Eastern Rim of the Galaxy, the Hitch Hiker's Guide has already supplanted the great Encyclopedia Galactica as the standard repository of all knowledge and wisdom, for though it has many omissions and contains much that is apocryphal, or at least wildly inaccurate, it scores over the older, more pedestrian work in two important respects.

First, it is slightly cheaper; and secondly it has the words Don't Panic inscribed in large friendly letters on its cover"

This is what you wanted, right? You there, I'm talking to you. Yes, you - the one with the maize and blue on. This is what you wanted for the past three seasons while you wailed from your (seated) position at the Big House for Carr to just retire already, right? That's what I thought.

And yet - here we are - with you saying things like "inexcusable" when talking about the very change that you wanted to see. Change that YOU called for, Mr. Michigan fan.

I know what you're going to say. You're going to ask me if it's ok to be mediocre; if it's ok to have lowered expectations; if it's ok to no longer be the leaders and best. No. It's not - and I don't think that anyone is suggesting that it is. In fact, the very people who are steering this ship are the people most upset. But here are the facts:

Your offensive line can't block
Your quarterback can't throw

When these things work in concert, these things happen:

Your bowl streak will, in all likelihood, end this season
You will, in all likelihood, lose to Ohio State again
You lose to a MAC team for the first time ever

And you know what? None of these things matter in the slightest. Oh sure, they'll go down on the record books, and Michigan FANS will lose bragging rights over other FANS, but since when does the fate of a program rest upon accolades that only FANS care about? It doesn't.

There is no offense that adapts to inaccuracy from a QB.
There is no offense that neutralizes a bad offensive line.

Rodriguez knows this. That's why he's running the damn zone-read so often. It's why he's forcing his system on these players who aren't adapted to run it. I-form slams into the line aren't going to work with this team - they're missing too many FUNDAMENTAL skills. Any attempt at making Michigan a competent offensive team this year will do two things:

1) It will fail
2) It will retard the improvement in the offense that Rodriguez was hired to run.

You want to know what happens when a coach is brought in to run a specific system, and not everyone buys in? Look at Auburn. Tony Franklin was brought in to run a system that had success at every level. When the coaching staff didn't buy into the program, the offense was not only a spectacular failure, but one in which there was no discernible reason for the failure.

I'll put it this way:

Michigan's offense is failing, but in so doing, they are gaining valuable experience for the future, because this offense IS Michigan's future. Auburn ran/is running a bastardized version of the Air Raid that sucks, and won't lend itself to ANY future improvements.

If failing truly gives you the opportunity to learn, then at least Michigan is learning something that will help them in the future. Auburn doesn't have the opportunity to learn from their mistakes, because they won't be running the Franklin/Tuberville bastard offense in the future. Their failures were for naught.

Rodriguez has jumped blindfolded and headfirst into shallow shark-infested waters. When he comes out the other side - and all evidence supports that he will - his team will be ready to fight. But right now, he - and all of us - are still in those waters, fighting for our lives.

So stop it, sir. Stop booing, stop stomping your feet like a petulant child calling things inexcusable and unacceptable. You wanted this change; you got this change.

"Those who stay will be champions" is bullshit and not applicable here. Those who stay will be pained, elated, tearful, truthful, ecstatic, angry, and joyful. There are no guarantees in life, and even less in sports. For myself, and Champ, I think we'll stick around to see how this ends, and not be such insufferable twits. For those inclined to call things unacceptable, boo 19-23 year old kids, or start raving about a lack of offensive direction or the deterioration of the entire program, I will not care if you cease to breathe.*



*Not applicable in real life

TOGTM Cures What Ails Ya: Michigan Edition

BIG TEN PROPAGANDA ALERT: Psssssssssssssssssssst... of all the major conferences, only the Big 10 and the Big 12 do not feature a team with a losing record, don't tell the MSM though [/slinks back into the darkness of an empty parking garage] .

Teams in the Big 10, some have looked great, some have looked less great, but all have an issue or two that need a remedy in order to forge ahead as we enter October. Today's patient? Turns out that Michigan is sitting out in the waiting room. Stunner I know. Quick aside, I don't know about you, but when I'm reading article or preview and the writer proceeds to use a contraction of the team's nickname that is NEVER used by anyone who actually follows the team I stop reading. Yes I'm talking about the use of "Wolves" in any association with the University of Michigan. I don't see anyone using "Nitts" for PSU, or "Sparts" for MSU, or "Hoos" for IU (although that has potential), anyway you get the idea. Back on topic!

With Michigan holding on to a comfortable lead at this point in the year for "Most Turnovers Ever In The History of Sport" as well as being the chief contender in the specialty category of "Most Turnovers Lost In Which the Opposing Team Has Not Touched the Ball Carrier Nor Been Within Five Yards of Him At Any Point" they are in desperate need of some tutoring in Football Security 101. Because I can't handle watching another kickoff return taken out to about the 17 yardline and then WHOOPSIE-DAISY! Sorry about that D, hope you're not too mad at us! Phew, sweet job forcing only a field goal, don't worry we won't let you do... WHOOOPS!

The fix? Easy. Each U of M player that has any chance of catching and/or carrying a football is assigned a "pet football" during the week. These "pet footballs" carry a cash value of 100 dollars for any student or university employee that can take the football and return it to the Michigan AD. Where does that 100 dollars come from? The player that the lost their pet.

Just you wait until a small female student majoring in Asian Studies lays out Kevin Grady and returns that first football.

Second opinion? Well I would have paid to hear what Rodriguez told his players at halftime would happen to the next guy that lost the football, but whatever it was, it managed to reduce the turnovers from 5 (almost 6) to zero. Perhaps it was the pet football idea? Perhaps it involved Mike Barwis, a kiddie pool of baby oil, a football, and a pair of jumper cables hooked up to a car battery... you know, whatever works. Let's put it this way, when Threet took off on his 58 yard ramble, you'll note that he protected that football towards the end as though his very life depended on it.

Seriously though, is there some sort of workout that Barwis can create so that instead of fumbling the football, the player can instead grip it so hard that it ruptures and deflates, making it impossible to lose grip on it?


Regardless, the Wolverines have managed to tally 14 lost turnovers in just four games, just a shade under four TO's a game. Nine of those turnovers have been fumbles... [/insert Mike Hart's career fumble tally of THREE here]. Two of those games have featured more than five turnovers, and since 1955, Michigan has won exactly 10 football games in which they've turned the football over at least 5 times (scroll to bottom).

Preview: Michigan Wolverines vs Miami Politically Corrects

There are not too many scintillating games in the Big 10 this week, but that won't stop us from examining at least a few of the clashes on tap for this Saturday! Today, we'll take a look at the impending battle between the Wolverines and the Redhawks, noon kickoff EST, ESPN2.

This is "Swoop", for more than you ever cared to know about Swoop, go here

There's a little cliche saying that goes something like this: "you're neither as good or as bad as you looked the first week". Michigan fans, myself included, are certainly hoping that this happens to hold true heading into week two. By "hoping" we really mean clinging to it with a death grip, but I digress.

Without going into an entire rehash, the Wolverines were thoroughly and completely outplayed for 30 minutes of football... Brian Johnson made every conceivable throw in the first half and generally looked really good doing so. Utah ran 45 offensive plays in the first half compared to Michigan's 30. Then all of a sudden the defense we'd been expecting decided to show up. Michigan held Utah to just 48 yards of total offense and three points in the second half while sacking Johnson four times and recovering two turnovers, plus a blocked punt. Unfortunately, this spark didn't carry over to the offense, where the Wolverines converted on opportunities but could not manage to sustain any kind of a drive whatsoever when they needed to, this was clearly reflected in time of possession where Michigan held the football for a mere 24 minutes to Utah's 36 (!!!!).

Oddly enough, for how terribly Michigan played, with 6 minutes to go, they were a two-point conversion away from tying the football game. Plays, believe it or not, were there for the taking, but failures in execution slammed the door on a number of chances Michigan had to escape a poor performance with a tally in the win column. Disappointing? You betcha. Were there some positives to take away from what we saw on the field Saturday? Definitely. So a lot of questions remain for Rodriguez's crew this week, particularly on offense where the execution was... completely lacking.

Turns out that Miami (OH) has a few questions of their own after a fairly hefty 34-13 loss to Vanderbilt. So let's look at the matchups shall we??

Miami on offense:
Last year's 108th ranked scoring offense did not do much to comfort Redhawk fans last week. On offense, the Redhawks managed just one touchdown despite 340 yards of offense; without having to even scan further down the box score this just screams TURNOVERS. QB Daniel Raudabaugh was 19/41 for 244 yards, good for 1 TD and 3 picks (there they are!). The rushing attack managed 96 yards on the ground... Miami's leading rusher, Thomas Merriweather, tallied 59 yards on just 10 carries. These totals seem small until you gaze over at the miniscule 36 yards that Michigan put on the board last week.

Raudabaugh's attempts certainly seem high at first glance, especially considering his less than 50% completion rate, but they are not out of whack with what Miami has done in years past. Glancing back at the Redhawks 2007 campaign, Raudabaugh threw the football 40 or more times in four of the eleven games in which he appeared, and in fact averaged just under 35 attempts per game for the year with a 54.7% completion rate.

Miami boasts another large offensive line, coming in at an average of 309 lbs per man... this sort of statistic used to mean something in college football, unfortunately for the Redhawk fans, it does not anymore.

Michigan on defense:
If Michigan's secondary comes out in the type of coverage they displayed for the second half of the Utah game, then Miami's preferance for forward-passing the football plays into a strength on the Michigan D... however if they come out giving the Miami receivers 10 yard cushions like they did in the first half last week, Radabaugh will have his choice of open targets to throw spiraling oblong objects towards.

The Michigan defense last week looked completely lost for the first portion of the football game. Utah played nearly the entire game in a spread formation, and for the first 30 minutes Michigan's defense utilized a 4-3 formation to combat the spread... this failed horribly, largely due to very suspect pass coverage by the linebackers, huge cushions by the corners, and little to no pressure on Brian Johnson by our D-line. Once Shafer and crew got into halftime however, the D came out in a Nickel and absolutely dominated the Utah offense. Jonas Mouton came in for Marrell Evans at linebacker and definitely laid claim to a starting position for this week. All in all, the improvement in defense can probably be chalked up to several factors: Half-time adjustments, finally getting the "rust off", and conditioning. By the time the fourth quarter rolled around, the Michigan D was running over Utah and showing no signs of slowing down despite having been on the field for the majority of the football game, this was especially evident on the D-line. Eeeeeeee Barwis indeed.

The fact that Radabaugh isn't likely to take off and run certainly seems to fit into the "pin the ears back" type of approach that Shafer has been lauded for all offseason. I'd look for the Wolverines to come out and play much more aggressive from the opening gun this week.

Verdict: Give the nod to the Michigan defense.

Miami on defense:
The Commodores piled up 269 yards rushing (166 from Vandy QB Chris Nickson) and averaged over 5 yards an attempt... compared to a mere 91 yards passing. That passing yardage is a bit misleading until you account for the fact that Vandy only threw the ball 16 times with 9 completions to 8 different players. Any time your leading receiver has two receptions, it's been a somewhat odd day. I only caught portions of this game, but I did see enough to realize that Nickson simply shredded Miami. Trust me, as a Michigan fan, I have years of empathy built up for this kind of gutting, it hurts. It seemed as though most of his yards came from simply dropping back and then picking which side of the field he was going to take off on, particularly on 3rd down. Interestingly, Miami has all three of their linebackers (two seniors, one junior) on the Butkus Award watch list which obviously makes the linebacking corps by far the strength of the Miami defense.

Miami lines up in a 4-3 and unlike Michigan, there is nary a freshman listed anywhere on their two-deep on the defense.

Michigan on offense:
Egads, yeeeek, and ugh... How else can one describe 203 yards of total offense, 36 yards rushing with 1.4 yards per carry without dipping into realms of previously unseen profanity? This output has been described by some as "OMG worst EVER!" which is a fine display of some of the worst short-term memory you could imagine. Michigan failed to accumulate 100 yards of total offense in their last regular season game against the Buckeyes... So, as eye-gougingly bad as the offense was last Saturday, lets keep in mind that they did manage to score three touchdowns and had the opportunity to actually tie the football game late.

Much has been made in the Michigan realm of Steven Threet and how he should obviously start over Nick Sheridan. Sheridan was 11/19 for 98 yards, one TD, and one pick. Threet entered in the second half and was 8/19 for 69 yards and one TD... BUT almost half of those yards came on his GORGEOUS 33 yard TD to Junior Hemmingway. What many have been harping on is that Threet simply looked more comfortable running the offense and had the better (which in this case means bigger) arm than Sheridan.

That said, both QBs played as though this was their first time taking collegiate snaps. Problem was, we relied a LOT on the vertical passing game, and for that, it was obvious that Sheridan does not possess the arm strength that Threet does. I expect Three to start Saturday, but would be surprised if Sheridan didn't get some snaps as well.

Now we come to my “biggest” concern for the Michigan offense… despite having all of these running backs, the Wolverines simply could NOT run the football. In a mind-bending statistic, the Michigan running backs got a whole 15 carries on Saturday. This is way, way, way, way, way, way, way too few. Part of this was a product of having 2nd and 14 on nearly every possession, and part of it was our plan to try to get outside… there was room up the middle and indeed the few solid runs were right up the gut. There's simply too much talent in the backfield to not give all of these guys more carries this week. The offensive line had difficulty opening up holes, but the problems weren't so bad that we should abandon trying to run between the tackles altogether.

Many of the struggles on the offense are not from complete lack of talent, but from failures in execution. The freshmen play makers all showed flashes, which is impressive because it was an intense struggle to get them the football, particularly in space. Stonum looks to be a legitimate threat at receiver if the quartebacks understand he's not 9 feet tall. McGuffie took a screen right up the middle and made a linebacker look downright foolish… and also made a very nice cut on his TD. Shaw showed some of his toughness and ability as well making a number of nice grabs out of the backfield. All of them look fast, fast, fast. Carson Butler is going to be a mismatch for most defenses and Michigan needs to look to get him the football a lot more as well.

VERDICT: Even I can't claim Michigan has an advantage at this point here, if the execution improves, there's no reason they can't move the football. If they are a no-show for 60 minutes, this game will become very interesting. Overall, heading into the game, I have to give the nod to the Miami defense.

Special Teams:
Stunningly, Michigan's special teams looked downright GOOD on Saturday. Zoltan Mesko was actually one of the weaker performers, and that's saying something. Lopata's career long 50yd FG, combined with one blocked punt, one fumble recovery on a punt return, and solid coverage all day long adds up to a pleasantly solid performance.

Miami also saw some solid play from their special teams: Punter Jake Richardson averaged over 48 yards/punt last week and Nate Parseghean tallied 2 FGs of 28 and 37 yards. Both teams kick returners were stifled for most of their week one games.

VERDICT: All in all, the athleticism and talent of Michigan's special teams gets the nod here, although not in a hugely decisive way.

Michigan (?) vs. Utah

Full disclosure: I write for some other sites. Nothing really official, although in some realms I'm referred to as an "expert." I've been asked, twice, to write a preview for the upcoming Michigan vs. Utah game, and I have done so - weakly. There is no preview that can be written for a game with so many question marks. What would I do? Re-hash what Brian's done? Re-hash the re-hash, also done by Brian? I won't because I can't.

Here is what I will do. I will provide you with, hopefully, a concise preview on what to expect out of Utah - the players to watch for, and the matchups to exploit. There is nothing I can effectively write about Michigan, because frankly, nobody knows what it's going to look like. This ain't Mike DeBord's offense, and will hopefully not lend itself to the predictibility that failed the previous regime. It is impossible to preview a question mark, because there is nothing you can expect out of a question mark - it simply exists: large, looming. The question for Michigan fans is whether that question mark explodes into fireworks, or whether it will deflate into a crumpled mass of what used to be a really fun moon-walk. All Michigan fans can do is wait around until 3:30 on Saturday, praying for fireworks.

UTAH OFFENSE:

Quarterback: Brain Johnson returns for his third year as the Utah starter - but he didn't exactly follow the normal path. He redshirted in 2006 for knee surgery, and when he returned last year, it took him awhile to get back into the flow. Relevent stats for last year:

Passing completion/attempts: 181/272
Percent: 66.5%
Total Yards: 1847
TD/INT: 11/10
Rushing: 150 yards, 2 TD's

Those stats were nearly all significant drops from his 2005 season, when he threw for ~2900 yards and 18 TD's. Which quarterback shows up for Utah will largely determine their success against Michigan. Those paying attention at home know that Johnson did miss some time last year with a broken collar bone, but the yardage and TD totals are still down, even if you take the missing time into account.

Running Back:

Both Derrell Mack and Matt Asiata bring the power in the rushing game. These guys aren't the types that will burn you, but they will move the chains. Utah lost Asiata to injury in last season's opener, but with both backs healthy, they have a great power running combo that will keep Michigan's defense busy. The good news for Michigan is that this type of attack plays into what used to be their strength. Given the relative lack of turnover and the continued use of the base 4-3, this shouldn't change too much: Michigan should be able to stop this running attack. Both backs are very good - but they're at Utah for a reason. Given the whole "Michigan as question-mark" metaphor, however, these two backs demand attention.

Offensive Line:

Sophomore guard Caleb Schlauderaff is probably Utah's best player here, and that's not good. He was a former 1 star to Scout, and the aforementioned "sophomore" label tends to send up some red flags. However, he is supplemented by two other offensive linemen that crack the "pretty good" mark in Zane Beadles and Robert Conley. Given Schaffer's penchant for blitzing, I expect this line to have their hands full all day.

Receivers:

Senior Brent Casteel leads the way here, and if "brentcasteelforheisman.com" is any indication, expectations are high. [upon further investigation, that site is registered, however, it is currently showing "symptoms of an overdoes." My guess is that it was registered, and is currently void of content. - B2]. He missed most of last year with knee surgery, but his 10 TD's in 2006 is impressive. He's a senior with something to prove, and he will be a major contributing factor in Brain Johnson's quest to regain form.

UTAH DEFENSE:

The summary of the defense for Utah is that the front 7 are bad, the secondary is good. The Mike Linebacker is appropriately named Mike Wright, and he will be the leader on an interior defense that was decimated by attrition. He was a walk on. The secondary, on the other hand, should be quite good, with senior CB Brice McCain leading the way. McCain also returns kicks, and runs for President [boooooo - ed.].

I'm not going to make a special place for him, but kicker Louie Sakoda is excellent.

MATCHUPS TO WATCH FOR:

Michigan's bevy of RB's vs. Utah Interior D

If there is one thing about Michigan that we're fairly certain of, it is that they will deploy several RB's, sometimes 3 at a time. If there is another thing we can be fairly certain of, it is that Rich Rodriguez will try to run the ball early and often. If Utah's interior defense - currently dressed as a big fuzzy question mark - can hold Michigan's running game (whatever form it takes) in check, then Michigan's offense will have failed.

Michigan QB dejour vs. Utah Secondary

Regardless of the success rushing attack, there will come a point in Saturday's game that the Michigan QB will be asked to throw. This could take on many forms, including screens, slants, etc., but there will a point in time when the Michigan QB lofts the ball through the air with the desired outcome being that the receiver catches it, and moves upfield. He will be doing this into the strength of the Utah defense. If Sheridan/Threet/Feagin/Brown are forced into tough throws, it's turnover central.

Utah Power Rush vs. Michigan Front 7

Just as critical to Utah, the rushing attack must get off the ground. There are several factors that play into this. First, the Utah Offensive line have to be able to hold thier blocks long enough for Mack/Asiata to get into the Linebackers. If they can do that, the RB tandem has a good chance of moving chains, keeping the defense honest, and opening things up for Johnson's passing game. Michigan's front 4 look to be the best we've seen in some time, and if they start penetrating, they could make Utah's offense look like what everyone expects Michigan's offense to: unprepared, inefficient, and fail.

Brian Johnson vs. Himself

Man vs. Self; how literary of me. What I mean is simply this: Brian Johnson is a dicotomous quarterback. If he's rattled, pressured, and taken out of synch, he will suck. But if he gets on a roll and gains confidence, he has the skills to beat you. What Johnson needs to realize is that, in all likelyhood, he is going to get hit this game. Shaeffer (Michigan DC) brings heat, and frankly, the Utah O-line has no business stopping it. If Johnson allows this to take him out of his rythm, he will take himself out as a contributer to the offense. If Utah is going to be successful, they will need Johnson to be the potential MWC MVP that he is capable of being. It will be Michigan's job to make sure that his ass hits the turf as much as possible.

Pray for fireworks.

It's the smell...I feel...saturated by it

College Football: Get Saturated!

I was on a run yesterday, which is strong language suggesting that I was doing more than ambling with intent, which I was not. But none the less, I was moving at a gait between "walk" and "run" specifically reserved for those who are not built like runners, and should probably stick to more motorized forms of transportation. It's painful, and I should probably not be observed doing it too often, which is why I tend towards the more deserted part of the park by which I live. It was here, unexpectedly, that I got my first taste that college football was about to start. You see - I live in New England, where pro sports dominate, and college football gets about as much airtime as Jai-Lai. It's been hard to get fired up about this season. But yesterday, on my little deserted part of the path, I got the jolt I needed. There was another runner, moving significantly faster than I, coming at me. She had on Ohio State gear - from her headband to her shorts - she was Scarlet and Gray. I was wearing a Michigan Tee. We didn't stop, we didn't exchange words, but we glared at each other long and hard as our paths crossed. I think I even detected a bit of a buckstache on her.

The point here isn't to bore you with insignificant ramblings on my own personal life, but rather to see what it takes to get you ready for the season. For me, this season, it took a rival fan and a mutual acknowledgment of disdain to get me going. But man - can you feel it? Only one week until the season; only one week until the beginning of the Carnival.

Leave a comment: when do you start getting fired up about the season?

Buckeyes; Spartans; Utes; ah, heck, just about anybody: Commence Trashtalk Now

Arg, formatting issues...just click to make larger.


Image taken directly from the official merchandise store of the Michigan Wolverines: the Mden.

If you can't laugh at this you're not human. Champ, apparently, is not human.

An Introspective Look at Scheduling and Social Consciousness... or just scheduling

Here we sit, a mere 3 weeks and change away from the literal kickoff to the most glorious time of the year, fall practices have begun, teams are fine tuning (read: wholesale searching for answers), and more and more commentary regarding teams is percolating through websites, radio shows, and television. One thing that I’ve particularly enjoyed this offseason is the use of the term “sleeper” to describe several teams. A cursory Google search for “NCAA Sleepers” reveals Virginia, North Carolina, and yes, Utah as carrying that label. There are several aspects of describing a team as a “sleeper” that annoy most erudite college football fans, the foremost of which being that once a team is labeled as such, EVERYONE and their brother repeats it ad nauseum. This tends to negate the “sleepiness factor” that a team supposedly possesses - After all, when I hear the word “sleeper” I think of a team that could be surprisingly good.

This begs the philosophical question: “if everyone labels a team a sleeper, are they really a sleeper anymore?” Doesn’t being an “under the radar team” (another favorite by the way) mandate that you are better than your opponents think you will be? If everyone [and their brothers! – ed.] labels you as being potentially good, exactly how many opponents are going to overlook you? The way that the term has been utilized lately brings about a different connotation if you ask me.

Rather than simply saying that a team has a possibility of being “good” or “better” this year, many experts look at teams that lie outside of the major power conferences and dig deep into the murky colloquialism bag. What do they grab? Sleeper. Why? Well they wouldn’t want to damage their hard earned credibility by labeling a team as “good” and then end up being wrong would they? They’ve manipulated the game so that either way the team’s season turns out, they’re insulated from criticism. Who’s going to get upset at somebody for calling a team that flops a sleeper? It was just a hunch wasn’t it? People who make predictions that are more concrete stand to have their necks out on the line… see Kirk Herbstreit re: Anthony Morelli, or a certain Michigan Blogger printing National Title shirts prior to 2007. So now rather than going out on a limb and saying , “Hey I think team X has a shot at being solid this year!” analysts instead cushion themselves by using that other term (I’ve already typed it too many times).

You may be asking yourself, “What’s the point Champ?” Fair enough. Let’s take the team name “Utah” away, and instead simply look at the factors you’d normally examine to try to forecast a team’s season. You know, basics like difficulty of schedule, returning players, lost players, recent track record, coaching acumen, talent etc. If we do that for this Unknown team that resides in Unknownville and go ahead and crank this admittedly somewhat subjective data through the prediction machine, what do you come out with?

Returning Starters: 8 on offense (including all skill positions), 6 on defense

Momentum: Won 8 games in a row to close ’07 including bowl game against Navy

Coaching: Kyle Whittingham (ha…hahaha…. See, it’s dangerously close to Willingham… get it? Eh??) carries a 24-14 record in his three years since Urban Myer’s departure, and an impressive 3-0 mark in bowl games. Per the Utah media guide he is the first Utah coach EVER to take his team to a bowl game in each of his first three seasons. Not exactly chopped liver.

Schedule: There’s a reason many are saying that if Utah can get past Michigan they could run the table…

So what do we have here? A pretty decent outlook by most accounts no? So what would you call that? Me? I’d probably go with “a good football team with a good chance to be successful this coming season” but that’s just me. Hmmmm….

Here’s where things get interesting, and where I think the scheduling higher-ups at several schools could learn a key lesson or two. Utah (the somnolent one) has instant credibility available to it if it were to manage a win on August 30th. Michigan, despite many predictions of an abysmal season, stands to gain little from beating what, on paper at least, figures to be a pretty decent football team. Oh, and if they were to lose? Utah T-shirt sales would skyrocket in East Lansing and Columbus, because “hur-hur, yous lossst to thems!” Meanwhile, if Utah runs through its admittedly lackadaisical schedule with only a loss to the Maize and Blue, they will in all likelihood end up in a BCS bowl anyways. The decision to schedule Michigan is a win-win for the Utes.

Michigan, on the other hand, could stand to take a tactic from its arch rival in this regard. The Buckeyes have upped their OOC schedule in a very cunning way. Yes OSU plays USC this year, yes they’ve played Texas the past few years, and if you look ahead you’ll see a marquee matchup each season for the foreseeable future. What is hidden by these contests is a laughable remainder to the OOC schedule! OSU gets to play a big time game against a big time opponent (something most lay people would call a “high risk” game, but in fact is exactly the opposite), where a loss will NOT derail a season or a BCS hope (see: LSU vs. OSU last year), and where a win will scream “LEGITIMACY!” from the highest of peaks. All while having what amounts to exhibition games for the remainder of the OOC schedule. How is this not genius? How is it that Michigan locked themselves into playing Notre Dame for decades when they had an opportunity to say “Thanks for the rivalry, but maybe we should start seeing other people for a bit” a few years ago? Notre Dame has not added any panache to the Wolverines schedule over the past few years. I’m not discounting the tradition or the rivalry; it’s always a huge game to both schools. My point, however, is that Michigan simply doesn’t gain as much from playing ND as it did 15 years ago. Perfect example: after a blowout victory against the #2 ranked (!!!!) Fighting Irish in ’06, many were using that game as a “so-what” at the end of the year when “debate” raged over Florida or Michigan. What would have happened if Michigan had played, say, Oklahoma? Or Georgia? My guess is that UM would have gotten the nod for the rematch.

Instead, Michigan is now caught in the middle of a scheduling conundrum: with ND on the slate for God only knows how long, how do they put together a schedule that’s not too tough, not too cup-cakey, but juuuuuust right? Well you can’t; not by the national media standards anyway, and they matter, because well, they make the polls now don’t they? Despite the fact that Utah figures to be a solid football team, Michigan will not garner any votes or confidence from a victory against the Utes. A loss, however, will open up the opportunity to play every criticism card in the book. Oh, don’t get me wrong, I think a solid performance against Utah would be a huge confidence boost to not only the team and the coaching staff, but much of the fan base as well. The problem is that in this current system there’s more to it than that, and that ephemeral feeling that poll creators get when they see a big game win or loss as opposed to one against a mid major solid team is enough to make a huge difference these days.

So how does the sleeper thing fit into all of this? Pretty darn well if you ask me. The media at large has labeled Utah as a team that “could be good,” which conveniently means that if Michigan were to win on August 30th, the Utes probably weren’t as good as most thought, and perhaps Michigan might not be as bad as many said. What the sleeper “label” has done has put any actual evaluation on hold for Utah while reducing the likelihood of Michigan making any kind of impact on how it is viewed by those who vote in the polls.

While this might seem small in the grand scheme of things, I think it illuminates two things that Michigan has either looked at and passed on or failed to realize altogether: that scheduling a big time tough opponent early in the year is not as damaging as the prevailing notion makes it seem, and secondly, scheduling good teams that are not widely recognized as such poses the problem of large risk with little benefit.

Michigan to Wreck Kid's Dreams; Ophans and Kittens Scheduled for Destruction as Well

Michigan fans are detestable. I know; I'm one of them. They walk around like that rich kid in school who didn't care what you thought of him because, dude, he's got tons more money than you do. It pisses you off even more that he doesn't care about your attitude, and gives you the cold indifference of the privileged when you pass him in the hall. As a Michigan fan, it used to be like that. Simply put, we were better than you, and we didn't care how much you whined for your spot in the sun. The entire conference, hell, the entire nation was our little brother.

Was.

Now, I find myself being more "apologist" than "arrogant asshole fan." I don't like it. Especially after reading stuff like this.

The upshot:

Michigan players won't be able to attend a golf fundraiser for kids because of mandatory workouts. In July. In the past, U of M, along with MSU, have sent 20 football players to play golf, sign autographs, and generally have a good time with kids. Now? Not so much.

I'm not an Ohio State fan, so I'm not predisposed to Rich Rod bashing, but dude, WTF? You're going to tell me that an S&C workout in July is more important than allowing some of your athletes to go golf for kids? Michigan State is now going to send extra athletes to cover, and you can't spare one? Oh - the AD approved 3 (3?!?!) athletes can attend from the women's gymnastics team, and from the women's basketball team. Way to turn on that PR juice, UM.

It very well could be that, as a first year coach, Rodriguez had no idea that this is something that his players are supposed to attend, and as such, scheduled an uber-important S&C workout. It was also somewhat irresponsible of the Michigan player liason for the even (former running back Jamie Morris, who I've met and enjoyed speaking with) to not notify the coaching staff until a few days before the event. HOWEVER, with all the negatives flying around the Michigan program as of late, you would have thought that the smart (and right!) thing to do would be to let 20 of your athletes go brighten someone's day.

Rodriguez had better win a hell of a lot of football games, because he's sure not making friends anywhere else.

Examining the Company Line...

A few friends and I were discussing this interesting point the other day, and I think it's a fun hypothetical:

If Lloyd Carr were still the head coach in Ann Arbor, with Mike DeBord and Co. still around, what would be the expected record for this upcoming season? No other changes in the team here, Mallet is still gone, Arrington and Manningham too. You really think the "experts" would be predicting the same season of woe for the Wolverines? Let's save that for just a moment.

For all those doom and gloomers regarding the offense, I invite you to look back at our offensive output over the past several years (highs in bold). Not exactly overpowering in any way, shape, or form...

2007 - 27.2 points/game, 68th in total offense (dear God...) ---> 9-4
2006 - 29.2 points/game, 38th in total offense ----> 11-2
2005 - 28.75 points/game, 55th in total offense ----> 7-5
2004 - 30.83 points/game, 46th in total offense ----> 9-3
2003 - 35.4 points/game, 15th in total offense ----> 10-3 (oh what could've been... @!#% punt formation)
2002 - 27.7 points/game, 52nd in total offense ----> 10-3
2001 - 27.5 points/game, 70th in total offense ----> 8-4
2000 - 33.9 points/game, 11th in total offense ----> 9-3

West Virginia under Rodriguez?

2007 - 39.6 points/game, 15th in total offense ----> 11-2
2006 - 38.8 points/game, 5th in total offense ----> 11-2
2005 - 32.0 points/game, 50th in total offense ----> 11-1
2004 - 30.0 points/game, 26th in total offense ----> 8-4
2003 - 28.9 points/game, 72nd in total offense ----> 8-5
2002 - 30.4 points/game, 18th in total offense ----> 9-4
2001 - 21.3 points/game, 80th in total offense ----> 3-8

Now then, I can foresee a lot of people pointing to that 2001 number in Rodriguez's first season at WVA and going berserk... but take a moment and glance up at our offensive outputs for the '01 campaign in Ann Arbor... just about 6 points more a game and an offense that was marginally better ranked (although undoubtedly 10x more talented than what WVA had at the time) and you get 6 more wins and 5 less losses. Does anyone here want to try to argue that Michigan has had less talent than West Viriginia over any of this time period? Anyone? Not me, that's for sure. Is it not at all conceivable that PERHAPS, just MAYBE, Rich Rodriguez knows what he's doing from a game planning, X's and O's, and play calling point of view? You know, the kind of ability that means he doesn't exactly HAVE to have a Pat White on his team for that team's offense to be functional?

But what about the pre-Rodriguez WVA team? Perhaps that offense was solid and capable, and his new system set them back until they got the hang of it? Here we go:

2000 WVA - 27.9 points/game, 73rd in total offense ----> 6-5

So, um... not exactly the most catastrophic drop in the world eh? Even with the most complex, highly finnicky, player-specific-offense-that-man-ever-created?

Every time someone starts going all "woe is us" or "hahahahaha" regarding this year's offense and completely ignores the following, it drives me crazy:

1. The offense here has hardly ever been lights out over the past 8 seasons, despite being choked with talent across the field more often than not. It has been mostly slaps to the forehead infuriating with momentary bursts of brilliance. If you could've taken a snapshot of each and every Michigan fan's expression after the opening drive of the bowl game this year you would've seen two things: A) Joy and B) Rage... we had been waiting for that for YEARS.

2. Our returning defense certainly holds the potential to be a solid unit, which, might occasionally figure into an outcome come fall.

3. For AGES we Michigan fans have howled about the play calling, absolutely SCREAMED about it, I'm one of the chief perpetrators believe me... I can honestly say that the removal of DeBord from the press-box already has this new offense off on the right foot.

So now that we have a guy who's regarded as one of the top in the game at scheming and game planning and running an offense... why are we all jumping off bridges because we have an inexperienced offense? Isn't it conceivable that less talent (for Michigan standards) with better play-calling and game-planning and conditioning somewhat evens the equation out a bit?? You think the Michigan advantage in talent might be worth one more TD a game than what the Mountaineers had in '01? Because if you do, you're looking at an offense that is right on the average of the past eight units we've put on the field numbers-wise. A thought worth considering when you're lobbing out predictions of a record that hasn't found the books in over 40 years.

When I talked about this on one of the boards I post on, I stated that I don't care one iota about those who go on and on about running "his system", the important point (as I see it) is that the guy will try to put the ball in his play-makers' hands and if the past is any sort of indicator, he'll be aggressive about it... something we've, as Michigan fans, all been BEGGING for over the past decade. What people seem to miss is that you don't have to run the exact Pat White WVA offense for things to work. Let's just imagine if Michigan decided to relentlessly use it's best players... the few times that they took this approach, the results have been pretty nice: ND '06... Florida '08... OSU '03... MSU '02, etc. You could also look at any drive late in a game where they found themselves in a dire situation and were literally forced to open up the offense... another angering trend that had many of us going "duh".

It's not exactly a huge stretch to say that we've gone X-3 and X-4 for ages running half-back traps nearly exclusively to the left side and then throwing over the top 3 times a game to an all-world receiver. Sure that's a generalization, but it's not like you've walked away from many Michigan games going "whew, we just out game-planned them there"! All of the jokes about running to the left on first down and wide receiver screens behind the line of scrimmage on 3rd and 7 aren't actually jokes, they've been tried and true predictions over the years. Imagine how Steve Breaston might have developed with someone in place who might have had a better idea of how to use him?

When Michigan finally went for broke this New Year's Day, the result was the highest bowl offensive output in a century... Suffice to say that aggression when combined with talent can have some nice after-effects. Now listen, I fully understand that we don't have that offense this year, and I'm not trying to argue that we wil not miss a beat. BUT, Rodriguez will have players at his disposal who have the ability to do things with the football. His job is to figure out how best to get them the ball in the best position to do something with it, you know, take advantage of things the defense will give... He happens to be pretty good at that sort of thing if you glance back at his extensive track record. He also has a chance of finding a few solid football players out there in Maize and Blue. The running back position is as deep this season as it has been in years, despite those outside the program not being familiar with all of the names, Michigan still trots out a number of wideouts who will be dangerous, and I think it will be interesting to see how we integrate Carson Butler into the offense at the TE spot.

Where people seem to get stuck is in thinking that because Rodriguez "can't run his system" they automatically assume that he can't field a competent offense in any regard. Folks, it doesn't take a ton of complexity to put points on the board. When I look at the defensive potential along with the schedule, I don't see a lot of instances where Michigan will have to score 35 a game to win. Perhaps I am mistaken?

So back to my original question, do you think the predictions for the upcoming season would be as universally dour if the old staff were in place? Allow me to answer for you: the answer would be no. Predictions would be middling, likely another 4 loss season sort. I can draw a lot of parrallels between this upcoming year and the Wolverines' 2001 campaign. You may recall 2001 as a year of utter dispair heading into the season, Michigan had just graduated Anthony Thomas, and later in the spring lost Drew Henson and David Terrell to early jumps to the MLB and NFL... That season represents the low water-mark offensively over the last eight years... 70th overall... the result? 8-4.

For years the accusation has been that Michigan has gotten by on superior talent... I don't think it would be unreasonable to say that the last coaching staff had an approach that focused more on perfecting execution than trying to seek out any and all weakness in the opponent and how to attack them. I imagine if we boiled down the approach, it was essentially: "We have the better players, if we play well, we will beat you". That will not work this season, and I think it's also safe to say that Rodriguez has NEVER relied on that approach. He has been forced to figure out how to win with lesser talent, how to attack opponents and create matchups that favor his team, how to plan and prepare his teams... he's proven this, and it's because of this that I think that he'll be capable of fielding an offense that will be better than the "miserable" that has been the company line all off-season. No, the huge talent advantage won't be as apparent this year, but the coaching advantage will be, and I think many are overestimating the effects of one, and underestimating the impact of the other.

Compare/Contrast

To wrap up part 2 of the BTB's preseason awards, I thought I'd do some compare/contrast ramblings with what turned out to be the tabulated results.

Here is what the BTB voted.

Offense

QB - Curtis Painter, Purdue
RB - Beanie Wells, Ohio State
RB - Javon Ringer, Michigan State
WR - Brian Robiskie, Ohio State
WR - Arrelious Benn, Illinois
WR - Greg Orton, Purdue
TE/SB - Travis Beckum, Wisconsin
OT - Alex Boone, Ohio State
OG - Steve Rehring, Ohio State
C - AQ Shipley, Penn State
OG - Kraig Urbik, Wisconsin
OT - Eric Vanden Heuvel, Wisconsin

For those not paying attention, here is what I voted:

QB: C.J. Bacher NW
RB: Chris Wells OSU
RB: Javon Ringer MSU
WR: Arrelious Benn IL
WR: Brian Robiskie OSU
WR: Brian Hartline OSU
TE: Travis Beckem WI
OT: Alex Boone OSU
OT: Gerald Cadogan PSU
OG: Jon Skinner OSU
OG: Steve Schilling UM
C: Ryan McDonald IL

Apparently, I was one of two who voted for C.J. Bacher - with the other being LTP themselves. I am genuinely surprised by this, as I genuinely doubt the playmaking ability of Curtis Painter. He was best described as "middling" last season, and I don't see Purdue getting any better as a team this season.

I was dead on with running backs, which is no surprise given that Beanie Wells is a definite Heisman favorite, and Javon Ringer has been good since he first strapped 'em up for the Spartans. I would have loved to see the final results of the vote to see how close P.J. Hill was to getting that second slot. On a tangent - why did everyone fall off the "P.J. Hill is the second coming" bandwagon? Take a look at his stats:

2006

1569 Yards
15 TD's
121 YPG
5.05 YPC

2007

1212 Yards
14 TD's
111 YPG
5.20 YPC

He played in 2 less games in '07, which is why his total yards and (probably) TD's are down, but other than that, it looks like a carbon copy of his 2006 campaign that saw him earn Big Ten Freshman of the Year honors.

My wideout picks were pretty much dead on. Greg Orton could be good - but only as good as Painter. Apparently, the BTB as a group think higher of Purdue than I do. I knew that it was either going to be Hartline or Robiskie in the final tally - and I was right. My hypothetical 4th pick would have been for Greg Matthews before Orton.

The Tight End position was such a foregone conclusion that I'm not going to even say "told you so."

In hindsight, I completely missed Rehring, who should have definitely been included on my vote. Other than that, I believe the linemen I selected have just as much probability of being awesome as any of those who made the final cut.

Defense


Final Vote:

DE- Greg Middleton, Indiana
DE - Maurice Evans, Penn State
DT - Terrance Taylor, Michigan
DT - Mitch King, Iowa
LB - James Laurinaitis, Ohio State
LB - Marcus Freeman, Ohio State
LB - Anthony Heygood, Purdue
S - Anthony Scirrotto, Penn State
S - Anderson Russell, Ohio State
CB - Malcolm Jenkins, Ohio State
CB - Vontae Davis, Illinois

Beauford's vote:

CB: Morgan Trent MI
CB: Vontae Davis IL
SS: Anthony Scirrotto PSU
FS: Shane Carter WI
OLB: James Laurinitis OSU
OLB: Marcus Freeman OSU
MLB: Greg Jones MSU
DE: Maurice Evans PSU
DE: Greg Middleton IN
DT: John Gill NW
DT: Terrence Taylor MI

Ignore the formatting issues here - it's Friday.

I knew that Jenkins would get the final nod - and probably deservedly so. I still believe that Morgan Trent is going to have an outstanding year - but he is definitely a long-shot compared to Jenkins. Carter is kind of in the same vein as Trent - but he's more a complete unknown. His season last year was the kind of charmed season that DB's are sometimes presented with. 7 INT's in 13 games and, IIRC, he wasn't even a full-time starter. I think, given the year's development, the fact that he's on a Biliema defense, and his already proven nose for the ball, he could have a monster year to unseat Russell for the All Conference nod.

I am actually shocked that Greg Jones didn't make the final cut. We all knew that the two linebackers from Ohio State would make it - but Anthony Heygood beats out Greg Jones (who? Greg Jooanes)?

Stat comparison:

Total tackles

Jones - 78
Heygood - 80

Sacks

Jones - 4.5
Heygood - 1 and even this one is "iffy"

TFL's

Jones - 8.5
Heygood - 14

The only thing that Heygood has a clear advantage in is TFL's, while getting blown out in sacks. I had to really dig to find how many sacks Heygood had last year - finally landing on "one" from a Purdue website. All my usual stats pages didn't have him listed - hence the "iffy" assessment. Mark it down now - Greg Jones is going to not only be All-Conference this year - he's going to be in the running for some All-American teams.

King for Gill is the only other discrepancy - and one that I can live with.

Totals


Overall, I was 13 for 23 on total picks being "correct" if the final BTB vote is to be considered correct. It should be noted that 4 of those incorrect picks were due to my own (admitted) lack of knowledge on offensive line play. The only egregious error on my part was the omission of Steve Rehring. Otherwise, I stand by my picks in their entirety.

Feel differently? Enlighten me in the comments section.

BTB Preseason Awards Show: Part II

A huge thanks to LTP for hosting/doing the grunt work for these awards. The final results are now up, but you'll have to go over there to find them (at least for today). We're going to go ahead and reveal our picks for the 1st team defense today, and do a compare/contrast tomorrow.

On with the show:

BEAUFORD'S 1ST TEAM ALL CONFERENCE DEFENSE

CB: Morgan Trent MI
CB: Vontae Davis IL
SS: Anthony Scirrotto PSU
FS: Shane Carter WI
OLB: James Laurinitis OSU
OLB: Marcus Freeman OSU
MLB: Greg Jones MSU
DE: Maurice Evans PSU
DE: Greg Middleton IN
DT: John Gill NW
DT: Terrence Taylor MI

Eyebrow Raisers

If there is anybody on this list capable of inducing a serious eyebrow raise, it's Morgan Trent at corner. Here's why I picked him:

1) He's got a ton of experience. Cornerback is, in my opinion, the hardest position to play. You've got to have raw athleticism combined with schematic knowledge (when you have help, when you don't) and the ability to anticipate the offensive playcall. It's as much a thinking man's position as any on the field - and experience plays a huge role in that development.

2) The athleticism is there; this has never been questioned:



3) Donovan Warren - who has garnered some all conference votes himself - is on the other corner. For the first time in a long time, Michigan has two cornerbacks who are legitimately shut-down. There is no escaping them; only hoping that inexperienced safety play will bring them down. Trent will have the opportunity to make big plays - and I think his experience and athleticism will allow him to do so.

4) I couldn't bring myself to vote for another Ohio State defender...

Fringe Picks

There really isn't anyone else on this list that I feel that I have to defend too heavily. Maybe John Gill at Northwestern? He's listed on the Outland Trophy and Nagurski trophy watch lists, and he is one of 4 returning linemen. If our ridiculously early preview of Northwestern is to be believed, line play is going to be paramount to the Wildcat's success this year. I can only assume that a new defensive coordinator will make this a priority, and as such, Gill can be expected to have a monster season.

Duh

Everyone else. This list was much easier to pick than the offense, and (sneak preview!) the matches of our picks to the BTB picks reflect this.

Big Ten Bloggers Preseason Awards Show

A few days ago, an email flitted across my screen saying that Lake the Posts (friend [Ed - only friend, judging by recent events], Northwestern blog, good looking chap) was putting on preseason awards based on votes culled from the loose conglomeration known as "The Big Ten Bloggers." Round one would consist of our predictions for final standings, with all-Big-Ten awards to follow. The impetus for creating the awards was to prove that we, the intelligent bloggers of the Big Ten, would do a better job than the MSM at picking final standings, most notably concerning Northwestern. Well...the Northwestern bit didn't quite play out - and the MSM thing remains to be seen, but cruise on over to LtP for a complete wrap up. Notice that we're not in any outlier catagory - which is good. It's not our intensions to ruffle any feathers around here, now is it Champ? [Ed - more on this later]

For those disinclined to link out, here is how the conglomorate voted:

1 - Ohio State
2 - Penn State
3 - Wisconsin
4 - Illinois
5 - Michigan State
6 - Michigan
7 - Iowa
8 - Purdue
9 - Northwestern
10 - Indiana
11 - Minnesota

A pretty fair list, all things considered. According to LtP:

I was surprised at the wide disparity in voting. It isn't often teams get votes ranging 8 spots as a few did, including Northwestern. I was surprised by the Illini and Michigan State outcomes. I haven't bought in to the fact that Dufrene will keep "Ds" in check like Mendenhall for the Illini and also the on-field leadership of J. Leman is a bigger impact from a chemistry standpoint than I think non-Illini followers realize. For Sparty, I simply don't believe they have proven they know how to finish and while Ringer is legit, the loss of Devin Thomas removes an electrifying wrinkle that kept teams off-balance. That being said, my Michigan pick at 3 is completely irrational and goes against my better judgment. Perhaps I'm trying to hype them as I believe, truly believe, we will beat them in the Big House this year and who wants to win against Michigan and have it be a "down" year for them?

Beyond Ohio State, this was a crap shoot. I'm sure that all the BTB will be dissecting their picks today, and it will be interesting to see how the voting went. I know Nittany White Out already has their picks up, and I believe there was some sort of disagreement betwixt us. When I got a text from Champ saying "rant up" I went immediately to the basement to wait out the storm. I should make it clear that Beauford made the picks that went into the voting, with some help from Champ. So the following are not Champ's picks, FWIW.

Beauford's Picks:

1 - Ohio State
Sometimes, stereotypes exist because they're true. Sometimes, the majority is right because they're right - and there's no sense in playing the contrarian. In this case, Ohio State has, by far, the most talented team of anybody in the Big Ten and, IMO, the only team capable of competing for a National Title. On paper - which is the only thing we have to go on at this point - Ohio State should go undefeated in conference. I haven't done the Ridiculously Early Preview on them yet - but I would imagine that "trouble games" exist at Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Do they play Wisconsin this year?

2 - Wisconsin
This was a toss up between Penn State and Wisconsin. My reason for choosing Wisconsin was really foolishly simple: I compared schedules. Penn State's gotta play @ Wisky, @ Ohio State, while Wisconsin gets those games at home. The toughest road test the Badgers are going to face is probably @ Michigan, and with the season Michigan's predicted to have, that formarly ensconsed "L" becomes a toss-up leaning towards Badgers. When the dust settles, the most interesting game in the Big Ten this year may very well be that Oct. 11th rumble between Penn State and Wisconsin.

3 - Penn State
See above

4 - Michigan
5 - Michigan State
6 - Northwestern

Here's my rationale: Michigan State is probably better than Michigan this year. On paper. I know that I said that paper is the only thing we have to go on, but that doesn't apply for Michigan State. You see, we make up the rules as we go here... The problem is that Michigan State is still Michigan State, despite hiring a coach that looks like Belechik and glares alot. The end result for the Spartans last year was...the same as it always is: one game within .500, a demoralizing loss to Big Brother, and a bowl defeat. Every year I pen Michigan State as being vastly improved, capable of challenging for the Big Ten, and probable winners against Michigan. Every year, I'm elated at the results (which are pretty much the exact opposite of my predictions). This year, every one of the aforementioned rings true. They should be improved (see Hoyer and Receiving Corp), they should present as much a challenge to Ohio State as anybody, and they should beat Michigan. But I'm tired of getting burned on that - so until they prove to me otherwise, Michigan State will be a middle of the road Big Ten team incapable of beating quality opponents in conference. I'm begging the Spartans to prove me wrong.

Call it homerism for my honorary favorite team this year, or call it a favor to this blog's only friend Lake the Posts, but I am buying the idea that this year's Wildcats can make some noise. For many of the reasons Champ outlined in his preview, I don't think they will challenge for the title, but I do expect them to beat some teams that they traditionally don't (including Michigan?). They've got to get better at scoring points, and they've got to shore up their defense, especially line-play. Hopefully two new coordinators can accomplish that. Northwestern gets themselves bowl eligible, and there is much celebrating in Evanston this year.

Which brings us to Michigan. Here is why I believe Michigan is not this year's Notre Dame:

1) Notre Dame has been mediocre-to-bad the past decade. Sure, they had a good stretch there with Brady Quinn's senior season, but a closer look at said season reveals a lot of smoke and mirrors. Their schedule that year was brutally easy, with losses coming to Michigan and USC - the two quality opponents they faced. The schallacking they took at the hands of LSU in the Sugar Bowl was a surprise to no one paying attention. Every time Notre Dame has had to reload, they've failed miserably.

Michigan, on the other hand, has been good-to-great the past decade, proving time and again that the talent that Carr recruits is capable of stepping in and filling holes left by departing players. When Henson jilted the team in favor of Baseball, and a half-cocked Navarre had to step in, Michigan still went 8-4. Navarre ended up breaking several passing records en route to a career only remembered as mediocre. When he was done, it was Henne for 4 years. The line of skill positions that have follwed the "had success, graduated/drafted, then been replaced with success" time-line is non-stop. The hiccup with an unseasoned Navarre is the best example that I can think of of a player stepping into a skill position and sucking for a year. Receivers, tailbacks, and (by and large) quarterbacks have been one star after another for as long as I can remember. Non-skill positions tend to be harder to judge, but even when Michigan has had to replace entire defenses, the results have been bowl-eligible 8 to 9 win teams. This has not been the case at Notre Dame: see Jimmy Clausen's efforts this past year, or their attempts at replacing their running back who bolted early. If Lloyd Carr was coaching this team, you would have them penned for another 8 win season. Just because Rodriguez doesn't have the exact personel to run "his offense" doesn't mean the talent isn't there to run "an offense" capable of winning.

Plain and simple: Michigan has proven they can weather the storm when it comes to replacing graduating/drafted players. Notre Dame has not.

2) Notre Dame's coaching has been suspect at best. Despite the blinding light off of Weis's multiple super-bowl rings (and the subsequent reflection from the fried chicken grease on his chin), the man has done virtually nothing in terms of beating top-notch oppoenents during his tenure at ND. He came to ND unproven, and is rapidly proving himself to be a bad head coach. Rodriguez may be untested at Michigan, but he is at least a proven collegiate head coach with a track record of success.

3) The cupboard is not bare at UM. When Rodriguez took over the program at WVU, he was working with athletes who were mostly passed on by big-time programs. It took him a few years to build up the base of players that he could work with, which explains his dismal first-year records. I will wager that the level of athlete that he is inheriting at UM - previous starter or not - is far higher than what he inherited at WVU. Thus, I believe that this team will be ready to compete at a higher level than many think this year.

4) Michigan had moderate to great success running zone-left long bomb offense. They never had to get tricky because they didn't have to. Now, with the departures on offense and defense, Michigan has to get tricky, and they have the best coach in the game at doing that. Combine Rodriguez's willingness to run plays not designed around a punishing left tackle with the fact that nobody has any film or any clue about what this team is going to look like, and you get a lot of surprised opponents. I fully expect Michigan to lose their fair share of ball games this year, but I also expect that they will catch quite a few teams with their pants down. Everybody and their mother knew what ND was going to come with last year - and ND played the part beautifully. Nobody knows what Michigan's coming with this year, which is an advantage.

5) We've got Vegas on our side! The folks who are actually paid to make predictions with millions riding on them say that there are only 9 teams with better odds at a National Championship than Michigan. That's right folks, they said National.

Also - Michigan gets Sparty, Northwestern, and Illinois at home.

7 - Illinois

Speaking of Illinois, I think that they will be a dangerous team, but that the loss of Mendenhall is going to hurt a ton. Juice can't throw; it's that simple. If the Illini can't produce a consistantly awesome rusher to replace Mendenhall, then I can't see how that offense is going to score points. Mix that with an already shaky defense losing an awesome 'backer, and a competent safety (Kevin Mitchell), and throw in a dose of suspect in game coaching of the Zooker, and you get a 7th place Big Ten team. The Illini may still have some shine to them from last year's Rose Bowl team, and I think the BTB final vote reflects that shine. The Illini won't suck this year - but they will take a step backwards.

8 - Purdue
There isn't much to say here. Tiller's last season, and "meh" collection of players coming of a mediocre season last year, etc. Purdue will beat the low-end Big 10 teams, and will lose to the top-end. In full disclosure, there wasn't a whole lot going on mentally when I slotted Purdue in at 8th.

9 - Iowa
With apologies to BHGP, I don't see this year's Iowa squad as contending for anything this year. Depending on their OOC results, they could get themselves bowl eligible, and (in hindsight) are probably deserving of a better showing than 9th.

10 - Minnesota
They were a frieght train of suck last year, and I don't expect this year to be much different. Next year, you could see them sneaking up into the middle of the conference given the mildly awesome level of recruiting they've been able to sustain. But not this year.

11 - Indiana
Loss of top flight talent? Check
Potential loss of field-equalizing QB? Check
Last place finish in the Big 10? Check


Wrap Up

We weren't really that much different than the combined results. We seem to be in disagreement about Illinois and Michigan, but other than those two, we seem to be right on the mainstream money. Tomorrow, I'll have a post comparing our little vote to those of the MSM and preview mags.

I object

Opinions are funny things, and naturally you'll always hear that someone else's opinion is just as valid as yours or mine... this of course is not true. I have no problem with a dissenting opinion or point of view. What I do have a problem with is when said argument is devoid of any sort of attempt at presenting the information used to draw out the conclusions that were reached. I am more than happy to engage in a discussion and even reconsider my stance, just present your points of view in a way that has some sort of logical backing behind them. Absolute statements made without such backing fall into a different category. That said, the following deserves a few words presented in a calm fashion...:

From Nittany White Out:
Michigan will be beaten and beaten badly this season. For years Michigan has been beating on its fellow Big Ten rivals mostly due to Lloyd Carr’s impeccable coaching. This is not to say Rich Rod can’t coach. But he simply doesn’t have the players to run his offense. Sure he’ll modify it this year to fit his players, but if history repeats itself, his first year will be dismal. And to the delight of all Big Ten teams, Michigan will struggle. Michigan will be last season’s Notre Dame.

Can you honestly tell me with confidence that they can even win all their non-conference games? With Utah, and Notre Dame (away), the odds are in favor of a 2-2 start before they even start their conference gauntlet. Then there are revenge games away at Penn State, at Purdue, a vastly improved Michigan State, Illinois, at Minnesota and at Ohio State. If you look at their schedule, only 3 games can be considered a sure win, Miami (OH), Toledo and Northwestern.

The 2008 season will be sweet music to all Big Ten fans not sporting Maize and Blue.

Now then, everyone is certainly entitled to their opinion on this year's Wolverines... what I take issue with here is the ridiculous litany of "points" that are thrown out here sans defense, logic, or any identifiable level of reason. All this "breakdown" does is trot out a number of phrases, talking points, and whimsical notions that have been echoed around rival message boards ever since Rodriguez was announced as the new HC. Let's take them in order shall we?

1. For years Michigan has been beating on its fellow Big Ten rivals mostly due to Lloyd Carr’s impeccable coaching. This is missing the forest for a single tree. I said in the comments section over there that I'm was as big of a Lloyd Carr supporter as you could find during his tenure in Ann Arbor. He deserves a LOT of credit, but the main reason why Michigan has been winning football games has been his impeccable coaching? The man was a solid football coach and even greater person, he will go down as one of the greats who have roamed the sidelines in the Big House. But to claim that Michigan has been beating on its fellow Big Ten rivals mostly due to Lloyd Carr's coaching? Certainly his ability as a head coach was a large factor in Michigan's Big 10 success... but uh, there are a few other points to take into account here as well. For one, I think Carr's management of his talent had a much larger effect than his gameplanning or x's and o's prowess did.

I highly doubt anyone would argue that Carr-lead Michigan teams' success had nothing to do with his recruiting, which coincidentally brought in more talent than other teams in the conference could dream of having (save for that one down Columbus way of course), it probably had nothing to do with the fact that Michigan was a better football team across the field than nearly everyone else they lined up with, and I'm sure it had nothing to do with the fact that there has been a long-running tradition of a top level program, which affords it the ability to recruit, gather quality staffs (even if Malone, DeBord, or Andy Moeller were members...), and build from a very strong base. Michigan has not only been fortunate to have a run of great coaches, but we also have been spoiled rotten with the level of football player that we bring in year in and year out... more on that in a bit. To say we won only because of Lloyd Carr's coaching ability is quite simply wrong.

2. But he simply doesn’t have the players to run his offense. Sure he’ll modify it this year to fit his players, but if history repeats itself, his first year will be dismal. Sigh... I nailed this in the preview on "things people will beat to death and be way off base about" and here's example 1A. Sure he'll modify it to fit his players... and if you'd care to tell me how the caliber of player he had at West Virginia, Tulane, and Glenville State compares to that which he is now working with in Ann Arbor, I will happily sit here and listen. Michigan beat a number of teams over the years by running HB traps to the left and occasionally find one of a long line of great receivers deep (oversimplifying a bit for the sake of brevity)... the offense doesn't have to be amazingly complex or mind bendingly difficult to succeed, in fact if you'd like a beautiful example, I direct your attention to last years contest between #10 Penn State and the lowly unranked Wolverines... final score? 14-9 Michigan. Not exactly an offensive firework show was it... and a true freshman qb at the helm no less.

Rodriguez has been around the block, he'll put something in place that will enable this team to play to its strengths. Why everyone is so convinced that because Michigan won't run the "Pat White Steve Slayton" offense next year that they are in huge trouble is beyond me, Rodriguez ran an effective offense with Sean King winging the ball all over the place, and he ran one that whipped the life out of opponents by throwing less than 20 times a game, he's clearly able to adjust to his personnel, but hey, that's inconvienant to this flawed argument. We're all well aware of his first year record at West Virginia and Glenville State, etc, etc, but to try to compare his first year at WVA with what he's working with here is a bit of a stretch if you were to ask me. What his success in these different systems does tell me is that he WILL get his play-makers the football, and believe me when I say that we will have more than one or two players who will be capable of making plays.

The second part of this is the notion that because the offense likely may struggle at times, Michigan is doomed. This might be the case if the defense were going to be of the 2000 vintage... but that simply will not be the case. The Maize and Blue won't have to score 35 points a game to win. Of course it'd probably help to actually, you know, look at the team you're talking about to realize points like that.

3. Michigan will be last seasons Notre Dame. Based upon what? Michigan lost a number of top offensive skill players like ND did two years ago? That's where any and all comparisons stop beween these two teams. The coaching staffs couldn't be more different in terms of both track record and ability, the recruiting classes compared over the past four years are vastly different, the schedules for the upcoming year are different, and the makeup of this year's Michigan squad compared to last year's notre dame edition is also vastly different. Quick name last year's starting running back for ND... does he even crack our top 5 heading into this season? How about their top receiver.... and on, and on, and on.

4. Can you honestly tell me with confidence that they can even win all their non-conference games? With Utah, and Notre Dame (away), the odds are in favor of a 2-2 start before they even start their conference gauntlet. 2-2 would be something close to a worst case scenario to start the season as I look at the teams we're facing... but hey, "the odds favor it"... which means precisely nothing. Nothing in the way of matchups, breakdowns, or other places where any of these teams might give Michigan problems. Utah will be a tough test, as will ND as the first road game, are theses sure wins? No. Are they sure losses? No.

5. Then there are revenge games away at Penn State, at Purdue, a vastly improved Michigan State, Illinois, at Minnesota and at Ohio State. Ah yes, the "revenge game"... this is as true a barometer of an upcoming season as any. I love the argument that teams will be excited to beat Michigan this season... really?? That's different from every other season how exactly? It's really helped Penn State out a bunch since '96 hasn't it, every time our two teams have lined up since then hasn't been a "revenge game" for the Nittany Lions? Next of course is the "vastly improved MSU" (in what way are they vastly improved?)... which just so happens to have to travel to Michigan Stadium where, vastly improved or not, they haven't won since 1990... which is a vast expanse of time.

I've longed learned the hard lesson of trying to determine "sure wins" and you know what, the same holds for "sure losses". For anyone to try to claim that Michigan will be doomed to a 9th place conference finish and a record that one must reach back to 1967 to find another in the same ball park (4-6) with nothing more substantial than talking head sound bites and message board banter is just a bit laughable... add to the fact that it is June, and it's even more laughable. Call me old fashioned, but examining trends and matchups certainly carries more weight than trying to judge a team's "revenge factor" against its opponent.

So in short, we're in trouble because:
1. Rodriguez can't possibly run "his" offense (nevermind that this "argument" completely ignores 2/3rds of the game of football and fails to present any sort of actual attempt at defending these kinds of predictions, it sounds good and everyone else is saying it too!).
2. Other teams will want to beat Michigan really bad... which is news to exactly no one.

How very illuminating...

Michigan may very well struggle this season, nobody knows how we'll look come the end of August, which makes absolute statements about the upcoming season altogether misguided. Particularly when such absolute statements don't do anything like the following: "I think a lack of an experienced quarterback combined with the installation of a new system will really hinder Michigan's offensive efforts this year, this could spell trouble in a number of matchups, including...blah, blah, blah and so on."

I am not stating that Michigan will be great or even good, I don't KNOW what they will be, but to deny that there's a chance that they will be anything other than downright terrible (and the Nittany Whiteout prediction is the bottom of downright terrible) is pretty bold at this point in the year. To attribute said terrible-ness (English is a generative language after all) all to a struggle on offense is just a bit too much for my taste.

Michigan: The Preview

Champ came through in the clutch last week - delivering his opus on Michigan a mere two days before taking the plunge into holy matrimony. As a participant of the ceremonies, let me say that it takes a man of extraordinary fortitude to convince his bride that Led Zeppelin is indeed "first dance" worthy. Champ pulled it off; the legend grows.


It is surprising, sitting back having completed the preview, that this one turned out to be the hardest (thus far) to write. I thought to myself going into this that surely my knowledge of Michigan's roster, returning players, and traditions would allow me to crank out this post in a matter of 15 minutes. I was wrong primarily because nobody, and I mean nobody, knows what Michigan is going to look like when they take the field against Utah. Will they come out doing a classic run and shoot? Will they be running a spread out pro-formation? Will the quarterback be wearing pants?

Usually, these questions have been answered by years and years of tradition mostly involving off tackle running on 3rd and 12. The questions were slightly less...shall we say...large?...in scope. They were not "what the hell are they going to do on offense." Rather, they were "how are these next batch of stars going to function?" This season, they don't have stars, they don't have off-tackle runs (well...maybe a few) and they most importantly don't have Lloyd Carr walking the sidelines in his ball cap with his hands in his back pockets. That, I suppose, is the crux of why this particular preview is/was so difficult to write. Everything I knew about Michigan football came while Lloyd was in charge. Now, I start from scratch.


How I wish...How I wish you were here...

One thing the media will harp on that is ridiculously off base:
The lack of the true spread quarterback is something that you will not forget unless Michigan starts rolling up 500+ yards per game under Threet, a dubious prospect under even the best conditions. People seem to have the impression that Rodriguez is a one trick pony, and without Pat White mounted firmly in the saddle, his offense will be a complete fail. I do not agree. There is no way that Rodriguez has gotten to the pinnacle of college coaching without knowing a little something about everything. He is going to play the hand that he has been dealt - and if that means running Threet in a pro-style offense, then that's what he will do.

Direct from the horses mouth:

"Any coach will tell you, whether you have extremely talented guys or not, when you don't have experience at that position, it's cause for concern. So, there's going to be concern for us at any position that (we) don't have experience, in particular, at quarterback. We don't have anybody that's taken a snap in college football. So going through spring practice, we've got to have that in mind, and certainly as we prepare for the fall, we've got to have that in mind.

"You know there's no substitute for experience, but those guys are working hard, they're learning, and we're going to have to fit our offense to whoever our quarterback's skill sets are. And that I don't yet until I go through practice. But it's a concern. I don't want people to think it ain't a concern because it is – you don't have anybody that's taken a snap. But those guys will work hard and we'll try to get'em ready."

That doesn't sound to me like a guy who is convinced that he's gotta have a Pat White clone to be successful. The media will harp on the fact that Threet is a ghost white statue in the pocket, and if the Michigan offense even sniffs fail at any point, their main point of blame will be the fact that Threet is not Patrick White. They should be blaming the execution of the players on the field, not the non-existence of a certain type of player at quarterback. The Michigan offense may very well fail next year, but it won't be because Rodriguez is jamming a square peg in a round hole at Quarterback.

One thing the media will completely ignore that is integral to this team's success:
This is very simple, and Champ hit it on the head. The defense will be at least above average next year, with the potential to be very good. Last season, the young unit ranked 4th in scoring and 3rd in total defense in the Big Ten. The line has gotten better, the corners are older, and the linebacking crew is raw but athletic. Add in a year of being Barwisized, and you have the potential for this defense to be shut-down. And the Wolverines are going to need it to be just that if they hope to compete. Rodriguez is lauded as an offensive mastermind, so it is fittingly ironic that his first season at Michigan will rely heavily on a stout defense to be successful.

Most important contributors on each side of the ball:

Offense: Man, I just don't know. At this point, I don't even know what the offense is going to look like, let alone who the most important contributer will be. As long as the QB puts on his pants before the game, he'll probably end up being the guy here, but really, it could be any number of players. Will McGuffie be as electric in college as he was in High School? Will Carlos Brown get the ball in space and be a little bottle of lightening? Will Threet zing in all over the field like Henne did against the Gators? Who will be the deep threat? Will Michigan even throw the ball? Ever? I just don't know.

Defense: Here, I differ from Champ. It's not so much that I disrespect line play, but I find it difficult to single out one guy on the defensive line and say "that's gonna be the guy who will make a difference." Sure, Lamarr Woodley was a freight train loaded with bee-hives against Notre Dame his senior year - almost singlehandedly destroying the willpower of the tackle, quarterback, or whoever else had the misfortune of getting in his way. Do I think that Graham could be that player? Maybe. What is more likely (and ultimately more successful) is the line gels together as a unit, and is able to wreak havoc that way. I think that is a much more reasonable goal for this unit than the one-man standout show. To put it in NFL terms, I think this unit (at their best) could more resemble the Giants in the Superbowl, rather than Dwight Freeney and a bunch of other dudes trying to occupy blockers.

I will go with Morgan Trent here for several reasons.

1) Cornerback is the most difficult position on the field to play. You are an island half the time, and the other half (if you play for Michigan...) safety help isn't coming anytime soon.

2) If there is anyone on this team with Ess-Eee-See speed, it's Morgan.

3) He's a senior, and building off a season in which he tied for 5th in passes defended with 10, intercepted 2 passes, and ran faster than Percy Harvin in the bowl game:



He is already a leader on the defense, and I really believe he will wrap up his collegiate career with style befitting the bevy of cornerbacks to have played at Michigan.

Area that scares you as an opponent:
Champ hit it on the head. I don't know if there is any one feature of this team that will scare you - rather, it's the fact that nobody knows what the hell Rodriguez is going to do, and you can't defend what you don't know. The Utah defensive coordinator is going to have fits trying to decide how to gameplan for Michigan.

Area that makes you salivate as an opponent:
If you're Penn State, or Purdue, or Northwestern this is your chance to kick Michigan in the teeth. This year is probably the worst Michigan is going to be for quite some time. I fully expect games in which Michigan just can't get the offense going, will turn the ball over 12 times, and will lose impressively. I'm ready for it. Youth be damned, it's like the whole offense is starting from scratch, and that's going to have a lot of growing pains associated with it. If I'm an opponent, I'm salivating at the rather good chance that Michigan is going to look more like this



than this



Random factor that you think will come into play this season:
How much will Rodriguez use a guy in a "Tebow" fashion? I think at this point that it's a given that Threet is the starter, but will Feagin come in to run gadget plays? What percentage of those plays will be designed runs, options, etc. Will he ever throw the ball? How Rodriguez manages the quarterback situation, which is already tenuous at best, will be the x factor of this season.

Overall Record:
Actual transcription of text messages between Champ and I as he wrote his preview:

Champ: This Michigan preview is hard to write...I hate trying to predict the records...I may cop out of that portion if you don't care
B2: No copping out! Everyone who reads us, all 12 of them, knows you're a Michigan guy. Go ahead, be optimistic. Remember you're accountable at the end of it all though...
Champ: Fair enough. It's up, and it's long.

Champ was optimistic, and he picked 9 wins. Just to be on a level field, for as long as I've known Champ, he's predicted 11 wins minimum. This year he picked 9, which makes me think that Michigan may be in trouble. I have Michigan down for a 6-6 record this year, with losses coming against the following teams:

Utah
Wisconsin
Illinois
@ Penn State
@ Purdue
@ Ohio State

You could easily substitute Utah with Michigan State, and still come out with the same record.

Please do not hang me, Michigan faithful, for this season, we know not what awaits us. This prediction is as good as dog shit on your front porch - which is to say that it stinks, and you never really wanted it anyways. We will all have a much better idea of where Michigan is going to fall when the season actually starts. For now, I guess I'm captaining up the HMS Pessimistic - all aboard for Ann Arbor.

3-5 in the Big Ten? Ouch.

Bowl Game Destination:
Michigan is an attractive bowl team, which means with 6 wins they'll end up playing in a better bowl than they should. However, it will probably be closer to Thanksgiving than New Years, and against a MAC team with a chip on their shoulder.

God knows, I hope I'm wrong. And please, Michigan fans, put down the tar and feathers. I'm only one guy...

Meeeechigan 2008

Alright full disclosure: I’m a dyed in the wool Michigan fan; however, I do not find myself to be the “OMG GO BLUE!!1!!!1 everyone else suxzores” type of obnoxious fan that B2 alluded to, perhaps I am mistaken, do inform me if need be. I am biased, but I will do my best to explain my points of view on the team and back them up with [gasp] reason and logic [/gasp]. You won’t see me creating national title shirts prior to a season (AHEM like a certain Michigan blogger who shall remain nameless but deserves to have a plot in the Steve Bartman HOF). Disagree with something I have to say? Comment away dear reader, comment away.

One thing the media will harp on that is ridiculously off base – Wooo boy, what WON’T the media harp on and in an off-base fashion? If it has the words “Rodriguez” “Offense” and/or “Spread” in it, then it’s likely off-base, and it will likely be beat like a drum to the tune of “CRAIG KRENZEL TAKES MOLECULAR GENETICS!!!! DREW HENSON PLAYS BASEBALL!!!!! THE SSSSS EEEEE SEEEE IS AMAZING!!” type of level. You’ve been forewarned… oh oh and West Virginia in any context will likely be mentioned ad nauseum. Also, if I have to hear one more time about how the entire offense won’t work because Threet doesn’t run a 4.4 40… I may snap. There’s a bevy of topics to pick from here, and even the harshest critics have to admit that Michigan certainly is the most intriguing storyline in the Big 10 right now. This naturally means way too much exposure and way too much focus that will undoubtedly carry through the season. You’ve been warned.

One thing the media will completely ignore that is integral to this team's success – Well so far that would be anything that has to do with the defensive side of the football. You won’t hear the media harp on the returners on the D-line or our two stellar corners who are returning, nor will you hear about the talent stepping into more prominent roles in the line-backing corps (Ezeh will become a much more familiar name by the season’s end). For something as cliché and well known as “defense wins championships” the defense that’s assembling in Ann Arbor hasn’t gotten a lick of a mention thus far. Here’s a little secret, they’re going to be good.

The second part of this is talent. All we’ve heard about thus far is how much Michigan lost on the offense… and hey, no bones about it, we lost a lot, but uh, guess what, there’s more to come and step into those vacated roles. The Wolverines haven’t been slacking in the recruiting department, and solid classes from the past several years will be joined by a heck of an incoming freshman class where a number of guys will likely challenge for playing time right away. No one has mentioned how much IS there. The team will be young, but it still rolls out more talent than every team in the Big 10 save for one… count the number of times THAT gets mentioned this year. Most Michigan fans will tell you that the issue has not really been talent over the years, it’s been how that talent has been utilized… and that will most assuredly change heading into this season.

Most important contributors on each side of the ball – Without a doubt this is the offensive line. I know, I know, DUH, but I have to go with them here. If Michigan is going to have success offensively this season, then the offensive group up front will have to gel quickly and give Threet some time and the stable (and holy cow what a stable) of running backs some lanes to run in. It’s hard to imagine that Michigan would lose the number one pick in the draft and actually become better, but I don’t think they’re going to lose as much ground as some make it out to be. Aside from the excellence of Long, the rest of the line was decidedly “MEH”. The other losses aren’t going to be as big of an impact as outside observers are assuming, and the way things are shaping up, Michigan will roll out 4 red-shirt juniors on the line… not exactly a rag tag bunch of green-horns.

On the defense I have to go with Brandon Graham. Graham has the ability to become a LaMarr Woodley type of player on the D-line and could be one of the keys to an experienced front four getting consistent pressure and creating mismatches at the line of scrimmage.

Destroyer of backfields

Area that scares you as an opponent – The unknown. Every Michigan opponent this season is getting a team they have never seen before. This isn’t going to be the “first down draws to the left behind Long 80% of the time and not kill you with its offensive weapons until they absolutely must” or the “throw the 2-yard WR screen on 3^rd and 7” type of Michigan team that opponents have counted on year after year. The game-planning will be different, the play-calls will be different, and oh, oh yes, the players themselves will be different. Count me as a member of the “eeeeeeee Barwis!” club, I cannot wait to see these guys take the field come the fall: speed, speed, and more speed. The thought of Michigan’s talent with space to operate is a scary proposition indeed, and Rodriguez will undoubtedly bring a level of aggression that this team (depending on whom you talk to) may or may not have been lacking over the past several seasons. Watch how much they try to get guys like Matthews, Stonum, Brown, Minor, McGuffie (droooooool), Shaw, and others the football in space… Michigan will have a number of real burners that will likely get the ball in much better shape than Steve Breaston could’ve ever dreamed of.

Area that makes you salivate as an opponent – Youth. Michigan’s QB will be someone who has never taken a collegiate snap as a starter. The receiving corps is also young, the line will feature new faces in new positions, and there will be freshmen getting significant playing time at various spots across the field. There will be miscues, there will be freshman mistakes, and there will be head-slapping moments. The way that teams are going to play the Wolverines early, and the way I’d game plan for them right now, would be to stack the line and force the quarterback to make plays by bringing pressure, if Threet crumbles or the o-line is anything resembling the version we saw against the Buckeyes last year, then you’ll see many Michigan fans screaming eeeek and covering their eyes.

Random factor that you think will come into play this season – I’m taking liberty here and mentioning a few… first and foremost is the D, I love how it looks right now, it could become a force, but I will be stunned if it is anything short of very solid. Secondly, Threet (or whomever will be the QB, some seem to think Feagan may have a shot, I am not one of those people) won’t have to win games on his own. Much will be made about the lack of experience on offense and the “new system” being brought in. What will be missed is that Rodriguez will tailor the system to the players he has. You won’t be seeing a Pat White offense next year. You’ll see one that maximizes the talents of the players that are on the field, Michigan will run the football and they will use their mix of receivers to spread the field to open it up for the backs.

I think you’ll see a return of the screen (something we used to run to perfection) to the attack, and a lot of plays designed to give Threet easy and simple reads (think Tom Brady when he first started with the Patriots). Michigan simply needs the QB to be able to manage the football game and not make huge mistakes. The Wolverines are flat out LOADED in the backfield and will once again bring a number of solid receivers into the mix. They will not have to fling the football all over the field to move the chains, nor will they have to score 40 points a game to have a chance to win. For all of the hyperbole about how bad the offense could be, it won’t have to be a showstopper for the team to have a shot, and for the most part I think that is something that many out there are overlooking right now. Michigan has recruited VERY well over the years, the names won’t be as familiar, but you’ll know them by the end of the fall.

Overall Record – Yeegads, anyone who knows me knows that I HATE predicting my own team’s record… you always get blasted and there is no middle ground. This team could legitimately cover quite the spectrum… they could be downright terrible or they could be surprisingly good, and none of us has any iota of a clue what they will look like when they tee that ball up for opening kick come late August. Naturally this means predicting the records at this point is even harder than usual, that is to say it’s impossible. First clue to our random guessing game would be to examine the road contests: these include trips to South Bend, Penn State, Purdue, Minnesota, and oh yeah, a little date in Columbus at the end of the year.

Penn State will be frothing at the mouth… again… like always… but as long as JoePa is at the helm in Happy Valley, I’m going to be confident heading into that tilt. Purdue actually scares me a bit, don’t laugh. They will return a number of players and they have given Michigan FITS in West Lafayette recently. Although I didn’t see a whole lot in the Boilermakers last year that has me trembling about this upcoming season, I think they’ll be more than ready when Michigan heads to Ross Ade. The Buckeyes stand every chance of being a ridiculous football team this year, and that game in Columbus will be a MONSTER of a challenge, to count on a win there would be sheer lunacy, but anyone who knows this series at all knows that Michigan will be ready to play come November 22nd. I don’t think it’s completely unreasonable to see the Wolverines coming out of their road schedule with a record of 3-2.

Home tilts feature Utah (not quite the creampuff you might want to see in the opener… of course after last year, nobody is a creampuff… sigh), Wisconsin, Illinois and those pesky Michigan State Spartans. Michigan hasn’t dropped four games at home since 1967, and since 1995 has put up a decent record of 74-12 (that’s a pretty solid 86% clip). Michigan Stadium might not be a decibel beast, but the Wolverines have defended their home turf rather well over the years and so I’m going to lean hard on home field advantage here. Michigan’s defense will keep this team in games this season, and there just aren’t many offenses on the schedule that give one pause when staring 5 or 6 months down the line. I’ll set the bar on the higher end and say 6-1, giving us an overall record of 9-3.

Final Big Ten Standing – This one is tough, I have to put a chill in my heart and count the Buckeyes as the better football team, so there’s one… Illinois and Michigan State are the “punchers chance” teams that we’ve already discussed thus far, but with both games coming at home I think Michigan will be able to take care of business. Wisconsin will be solid again and I’m calling that a toss-up and likely our toughest home game on paper right now, but it is the Big 10 opener, where Michigan has been otherworldly good over the years, so keep that in mind. Somewhere in those three games Michigan might stumble, so we’ll go with one L out of those 3. Penn State fans are already beating their chests about this upcoming matchup, and that’s laughably premature, the Nittany Lions will likely be favored at home, but keep an eye on that October 17^th tilt. Penn State has more questions than they’d like you to know about and losing Sean Lee is a big blow to that defense, me thinks Michigan hangs tough in Happy Valley, JoePa has yet to prove that he can game plan against the Wolverines and I don’t expect that to change suddenly now. A defensive battle favors Michigan whether Bob Nittanylion fan thinks so or not. I don’t know why, but the Purdue game seems to be the one lurker to me that bugs me. It follows on the heels of the Penn State and Michigan State games and just seems to be the kind game that might jump up and bite a young team… call me somewhat concerned there.

After all that jabbering, I’ll go 5-3 in the Big 10; good enough for a possible top 3? Opposing Big 10 teams are licking their chops now, but I’m telling you that many are going to get a lot more than their fans are bargaining for at this point in time. The defense will give the young offense ample time to find its feet and keep the pressure of having to score every time it touches the ball far away. Rich Rodriguez CAN coach, the guy knows what he’s doing, and despite the pedantic defamation of the guy’s character by many (I’m sure all are well versed on the situation and its various intricacies), I don’t see a whole lot of people out there questioning his coaching ability.

Bowl Game Destination – 9-3 would bring another New Year’s Day bowl of lesser distinction and be a colossal upset to the Kirk Herbstreits and Beano Cooks of the world… and a tremendous smile across the face of yours truly. Optimistic? You bet your ass, but that’s how I roll.

GO BLUE!

Preview to the Preview: Michigan

A Caveat:

As stated numerous times, I, Beauford Bixel, am a Michigan fan. I also try my hardest not to use this space to yell GO BLUE OMG!!1!1 That, after all, is Champ's job. Please read the following ridiculously early previews bearing this in mind. On with the show.


Did you guys hear about Michigan hiring some new coach? Yeah, it's been all over the news. [whisper] I think he's a Mexican [/whisper]. Anyways, he runs this new fangled offense that only works in high schools. Yeah - so much for Michigan even sending anyone without a pot/drug/gun/stripper/dolla billz y'all problem to the NFL. It's sad really. Did you hear about his morals? Yeah, he boils babies. No, really, he just puts 'em in big pots of water and boils them. For fun. You know what he uses as firewood? Stacks of money he owes West Virginia. What a jerk. It's just too bad that Michigan had to lower their moral expectations for this guy.

This is the typical thought process from Ohio State fans when asked about Rodriguez. Maybe not the baby part; I got a little carried away...but still, the overwhelming reaction to Rodriguez's hiring by those in the Big Ten facing the prospect of playing him every year has been...less than pleasant. If you can stand anonymous Buckeyes wielding keyboards, float on over to Bucknut's discussion board and ask about Rodriguez. You'll get an earful, I guarentee you.

And you know what? They may be right. We don't know much about Rodriguez. I'm inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt, at least until his teams actually play, but honestly, the jury should still be out on him. His coaching skills can only be questioned by those wearing the largest of tin-foil hats, but his moral and personal skills? Eh. Who knows? What I do know is that his offense at WVU has been set to kill since he got there, and his S&C program kicks the shit out of anything that Michigan has done since Bo's arrival. The rest? I'll leave that to Bucknutters and GO BLUE OMG!!1!1 types to debate.

2007 Season in One Word:


Shoe: Meet Nuts...


...Both Nuts

Ouch. The whole season was just one long "ouch." You know how you can get hit in the balls by, like, a basketball? But it only hits one, and mostly just missed? So the pain just kind of creeps up into your stomach, but you can keep playing ball, because really it's not that bad? Appalachian State wasn't even close to that. Appalachian State came right up to the toughest kid on the playground, and kicked them square in the balls. There was no halfsies about it - a small tennis shoe squarely planted on both nuts dropped Michigan to the floor before Oregon came over and kicked them in the jaw. After that, Michigan fought the rest of the season as best they could - with stomach pain and a broken face against kids who had waited a long time to see Michigan on their knees. Henne and Hart were Hobbled (yay alliteration!) for the majority of games played, and had it not been for heroic efforts from Henne during the Illinois and Michigan State games, this season would have been amongst the worst in recent memory. Then salvation came against Florida, when Michigan finally roared out to a 41-35 beating of Florida, complete with Heisman winner, M.D., and super hero Tim Tebow. Coach Carr hung up the whistle immediately following the game.

2008 Tangibles:

Schedule:

8/30 Utah
9/06 Miami (OH)
9/13 @ Notre Dame
9/27 Wisconsin
10/04 Illinois
10/11 Toledo
10/18 @ Penn State
10/25 Michigan State
11/01 @ Purdue
11/08 @ Minnesota
11/15 Northwestern
11/22 @ Ohio State

Coach:



Rich Rodriguez spreads it like butter. This is his first season as Wolverines head coach after thoroughly bitch-making the Big East. See beginning of post for more info.

Returning Playmakers:

Offensively, it's gone, baby, gaaaaooooone (emphasis added).

Tim Jamison, Brandon Graham, Donovan Warren, and Morgan Trent...wait a second...this could actually be a good defense! Hmmmmm....


Be prepared for a true supernova of a post from Champ forthcoming. It will probably melt your skin.

Epic? Yeah, Probably.

Epic is so overused these days. It used to be that a dude - any dude - could just say "yeah, brah, it's gonna be epic" and he'd get a knowing nod. Now everything is epic. Witness:


That party last night*? Epic.



That slushi I just had? Epic.



That one time, 2 years ago, when we road tripped it to Panama City? Epic.



Space Mountain? Epic.


You see - when a word gets used in contexts for which it is not appropriate, it gradually loses its original meaning - and thus - loses its punch. Epic was first used as a word only describing the most over the top events. Now? My morning constitutional was epic. Allow me to educate:

Epic:
1. noting or pertaining to a long poetic composition, usually centered upon a hero, in which a series of great achievements or events is narrated in elevated style: Homer's Iliad is an epic poem.

2. resembling or suggesting such poetry: an epic novel on the founding of the country.

3. heroic; majestic; impressively great: the epic events of the war.

4. of unusually great size or extent: a crime wave of epic proportions.

Assuming we can throw out the first two definitions, we're left with "heroic; majestic; impressively great" or "of unusually great size or extent."

Well folks - in the truest definition of the word - the proportion of ill will, hatred, and bitterness resulting in the split of Rich Rodriguez from West Virginia has officially reached "epic."


HT: The Wiz

Full .pdf of the affidavit here
Rundown of Osama Bin Richrod here.

Ostensibly to make WVU look bad, Calvin MaGee (former assistant at WVU, current assistant at UM) claimed that Aschebrook - on behalf of the WVU athletic administration - told him that he would not be considered for the head coaching job because of his skin color.

"Specifically, Mr. MaGee has asserted that I [Aschebrook] told him that he would not be considered for the head coaching job at West Virginia University because of the color of his skin, and he also asserts that I stated 'this is West Virginia, they ain't [sic] up to the times yet, you know why...a lot of big boosters won't relate to you.' Finally, Mr. MaGee claims that I gestured to the top of his wrist as further evidence that his skin color was the reason for him not receiving consideration for the position of head football coach at WVU"

Who is Aschebrook? Well - he was an athletic fund raiser at WVU, before being painted a racist. He currently works in the same capacity (as far as I know - please correct me in the comments section if I'm wrong) for Arizona State. He is also categorically denying that any racist gesture or statement was made. From the affidavit:

"So there can be no misunderstanding, I NEVER made any racially discriminatory gesture, remark or engaged in any such conversation with Mr. MaGee during his entire time at West Virginia University"

What is left to determine is whether Aschebrook is a slimeball trying to weasel his way out of a stupid comment, or whether he's genuinely been slighted by MaGee and Rodriguez in an attempt to paint the WVU administration as racist, incompetent, and really mean. Remember, there is the small issue of a $4mil lawsuit to be settled.

I really do encourage you to read the entire affidavit, mostly because it's really interesting. I'm very surprised that whatever lawya went over this allowed it to be published as such - what with all the "that's fu-ud up" comments made by the accused.

Were these racial comments completely fabricated by Rich Rodriguez and his assistant Calvin MaGee in their secret laboratory under Fort Schembechler? Or is Aschebrook trying to save some face by turning this into yet another "he said, she said" argument that can never be settled?

Time will tell. I do know that Michigan just needs all of this to go away. I guarentee you E60 and "Outside the Lines" are having a battle right now on who gets to do the story here - and anytime your program ends up on either show, you've got problems.** Rodriguez and now MaGee are not petulant children refusing to take their medicine. In my estimation, they have a legitimate beef with the contract and buy-out at WVU - if they didn't the court wouldn't have upheld their right to contest it. However, the media is painting both to be that petulant child refusing to play by the rules, taking their ball, and going home. Michigan won't stand for that. Not a down of football has been played, and already Michigan is getting more negative press than (probably) they did during the entirety of Lloyd Carr's career. Bill Martin is sweating. Mary Sue Coleman can't be happy. Michigan needs this to go away, and they need it to go away now. Epic should be applied to wins, seasons, and championships. It shouldn't be applied to problems. Right or wrong, Rodriguez - for the good of the university for which he now works - should pay up and make this go away as quickly and quietly as possible.

*Picture taken from the "world space party" which is pure unabridged awesome.

**Unless the story has to do with giving championship rings to dying kids, or something of that nature. If a kid ain't dying, then it can't be good (too harsh?).