Is Northwestern Really the Worst 5-0 Team in the Country?

[editor's note: I wrote the bulk of this prior to South Florida's upset last night. The upset doesn't render anything obsolete, but is mildly annoying. Also, this post includes only teams that are 5-0, the qualifying standard being 5 wins - not being undefeated.]

BHGP, purveyors of Iowa Football and to a lesser extent Black Tar Heroin, called Northwestern the "worst 4-0 team in the nation" in the events leading up to their soul-crushing defeat at the hands of the purple helmet. Despite the loss, BHGP forged ahead, saying the following:

"Northwestern is now the worst 5-0 team in all of college football history after Iowa took a 17-3 lead late in the first half, then committed a series of unforced errors that allowed Northwestern to come back and win."

Hyperbole aside, I spent the remainder of the day wondering if there was any way to statistically prove (or disprove) that statement. As readers of this blog will know, I've been unusually high on Northwestern compared to many of my peers and almost all of major sports media. Northwestern does indeed sit, along with 6 other teams, at 5-0. But are they the worst 5-0 team in the country?

The Contenders

Northwestern
Penn State
Alabama
UConn
South Florida
Utah
Ball State

Rankings

The first thing to look at when trying to determine the worst 5-0 team in the country is, simply, rankings. The AP poll ranks the 5-0 teams thusly:

Alabama (2)
Penn State (6)
South Florida (10)
Utah (15)
Connecticut (24)
Ball State (not ranked - 29)
Northwestern (not ranked - 30)

The coaches poll is in the same order, except that Northwestern and Ball State are switched up at the bottom, with Northwestern knocking on the door of being ranked, and Ball State mired in the "others receiving votes" category. In the two major polls, the battle for worst is clearly fought between Ball State and Northwestern. However, since this is a blog, we would be remiss not to include the blogpoll, which has the teams ranked in the same order, except that Northwestern is actually #25, while Ball State is firmly entrenched in "others receiving votes." That's three polls, two of which have Ball State as being the worst 5-0 team in the country, not Northwestern. This, however, is of questionable use because there are countless polls out there, and to say that two of three arbitrarily picked polls have Northwestern slightly ahead of Ball State is far from anything close to empiracal. However, it needs to be noted that both bloggers and the MSM think that the battle for worst 5-0 team is going to be fought between Ball State and Northwestern.



Resume

Let's take a look at the team-by-team resume of the contenders:

Alabama: Bama has the strongest resume of anyone is College Football. They are immediately disgarded as a contender, both for this reason and common sense reasons.

Penn State: Penn State has a home win over Illinois to its name. Other than that, they've played cupcakes, Oregon State's win over USC be damned. However, Illinois was ranked when they played, and Oregon State could be better than we think, although I kinda doubt it. Having watched Penn State play, however, I think they're stronger than South Florida, UConn, and the rest save for maybe Utah and Alabama. They are removed from consideration.

UConn: UConn is the closest to "Ball State and Northwestern" territory in the rankings, so a weak resume could vault them right back into contention. Their five victories are over the following teams:

Hofstra
@ Temple
Virginia
Baylor
@ Louisville

This is a weak slate of teams who probably won't be bowling this winter. Only Louisville and Baylor have shown any life, and UConn almost found a way to lose to both. UConn definitely stays in contention with this resume.

South Florida: Sure, they're a top ten team, but Champ had his concerns about the Bulls early, saying

"Champ voices disagreement with B2 for the second consecutive week regarding the Bulls who reside in the Southern region of Florida. Again, I think there's a number of teams out there that would beat USF right now, and that number is larger than nine."

Rankings-wise, they are a top ten team, but that is largely due to attrition at the top - not dominating performances by South Florida. South Florida, this is your resume:

Tennessee Martin (ed. - who?)
@ UCF
#13 Kansas
@ Florida International
@ NC State

Not exactly a run of prime mathcups, but not as weak as Penn State's cake-fest either. I haven't been sold on Kansas at all but the fact remains that they are still ranked #16, so that win counts in the quality column. Also, the Bulls have managed to win on the road 3 times. South Florida's resume, IMO, takes them out of contention for worst 5-0 team. (ed. - again, I wrote this before their loss last night. South Florida is now the best 5-1 team in the country. Also the only 5-1 team in the country.)

Utah: Utah is a good team that both Champ and I were high on from the start. Their resume looks like this:

@ Michigan
UNLV
@ Utah State
@ Air Force
Weber State

Take out UNLV and Weber State, and you've got a pretty good resume, especially given that nearly all their tough games have been on the road. This resume eliminates them from contention. Utah - you are not the worst 5-0 team in the country (ed. - Utah is now the only 6-0 team in the country, which, unlike South Florida, strengthens my assertion).

Ball State and Northwestern: Now we're getting down to the nitty-gritty. 4 teams have strong enough resumes to be removed from consideration. Since these two teams appear to be the leading contenders (with UConn closing...) we'll look at them together. Ball State's resume looks like this:

Northeastern
Navy
@ Akron
@ Indiana
Kent State

Compared to Northwestern's

Syracuse
@ Duke
Southern Illinois
Ohio
@ Iowa

There isn't much to sway the argument either way. You could almost look at it like this:

Syracuse = Northeastern
Duke = Navy
Southern Illinois = Akron
Ohio = Kent State
Iowa = Indiana

I would say that Navy is probably better than Duke, but by the same token, Iowa is probably better than Indiana. It's a wash. Neither team has a signature win, which is why they are both still leading contenders. After the resume section, it's a three horse race between UConn, Ball State, and Northwestern.

Statistical Comparisons

Given that all three teams remaining have eearily similar resumes, it's safe to say that the strength of the opponents have been relatively equal for all three teams. As such, a statistical comparison should yeild some good results. Let's do a quick rundown of some major catagories:

Points Per Game:
Ball State - 41.4
Northwestern - 25.0
UConn - 29.8

Yards Per Play:
Ball State - 7.1
Northwestern - 5.1
UConn - 5.6

Rushing Yards Per Game:
Ball State - 185 YPG
Northwestern - 149 YPG
UConn - 255 YPG

Passing Yards Per Game:
Ball State - 285.4 YPG
Northwestern - 213 YPG
UConn - 138 YPG

The takeaway offensively is that Ball State has the best, most well rounded offense. UConn can rush the ball, but can't (or won't) throw it. Northwestern, however, is last in every catagory except for passing yards, and as such, Northwestern takes the lead for worst 5-0 team. Let's look at the defense.

Yards Allowed Per Game:
Ball State - 384.6
Northwestern - 319.8
UConn - 314.4

Scoring Defense PPG
Ball State - 20.2 PPG
Northwestern - 12.4 PPG
UConn - 14.2 PPG

Turnover Margin
Ball State - 0.6
Northwestern - 0.6
UConn - 0.0

Defensively, it's Northwestern carrying the torch, allowing a measly 12.4 points per game. With that defense, its no wonder the Wildcats offense doesn't have to do much. Meanwhile, Ball State's defense is bordering on awful - relying heavily on their offense to light it up. UConn remains decidedly "meh" defensively. Both Ball State and Northwestern are in the positives for turnover margins, which is good.

Combine the fact that UConn has a barely stronger resume, and doesn't find themselves on the extreme short end of the stick statistically, we can eliminate them from contention.

The Takeaway

It's between Ball State and Northwestern for sure - just like the polls said it was. Northwestern has the 9th best scoring defense in the country, while Ball State has the 13th best scoring offense in the country. Meanwhile, Ball State's scoring defense registers at 45th in the coutry. Northwestern's offense fares no better, clocking in at the 75th best scoring offense.

Since Northwestern's offense takes the cake for ineffeciency, it is indeed safe to say that Northwestern is the worst 5-0 team in college football.

They shouldn't, however, be taken lightly by any conference foe. As long as their defense comes to play, the Wildcats will be in contention to win every game.

BTB Roundtable Questions: Purple Helmet Edition

This week's roundtables are being courteously hosted by friend of blog Lake the Posts, who covers Northwestern with an excellence that far exceeds that of the actual team's. Nonetheless, he is read daily by yours truly, and since Northwestern is converging on being nationally relevant (in a top-25 sort of way) for the first time in nearly a decade, he should be a daily read of yours as well.

On to the questions!

1) The national media is using the Big Ten Conference as a punching bag in 2008 ranking us somewhere between the Big East and the MAC. Based on Ohio State's no-show, Purdue's "APPLE!!!" and Michigan's debacle, it is redemption week in Big Ten Country. However, several teams have very respectable, yet no-name teams (ie. Troy, Central Michigan, Ball State). Tell us how the Big Ten will respond this week in the final week before conference play.

To answer the actual question, I think the Big Ten will be fine this final week before conference matchups begin. The games look like this:

Ohio @ NU
FAU @ Minn
Temple @ PSU
Iowa @ Pitt
CMich @ Pur
Troy @ OSU
Notre Dame @ MSU
Ball St @ Ind

Just like week two, I expect the Big Ten to run the table again, with possible trouble brewing for Minny, Iowa, and Indiana (and Iowa only because it's a road game, and weird things happen). The question within this question, however, is that of the national perception of the Big Ten. For a few years now, we've heard the cries from the corners of the country - the Big Ten is weak, slow, unprepared, and soft. Well, in 2006, we had Michigan and Ohio State to rally behind, and they came with a preloaded excuse for their bowl collapses. In '07, Ohio State was still a monster, but after Michigan's soul-wrenchingly bad start, they (OSU) were also the only team in the conference who could claim national relevancy. This year, nobody's home. It doesn't make the football any less entertaining, and it doesn't mean that the Big Ten is full of bad teams - it just means that the upper crust of college football this year doesn't include the BXI. I expect that to change over the coming years, but there is no sense in denying it now: compared to the other BCS conferences, the Big Ten is pretty weak top to bottom.

2)The conference standings look like someone took the 2007 results and flipped it upside down. Which of the undefeated teams are contenders and which are pretenders (another way of saying which teams have put lipstick on a pig)? Recalibrate your preseason rankings and tell us who the conference favorites are now.

My preseason Big Ten rankings looked like this:

1. Ohio State
2. Wisconsin
3. Penn State
4. Michigan
5. Michigan State
6. Northwestern
7. Illinois
8. Purdue
9. Iowa
10. Minnesota
11. Indiana

Ohio State, despite the no-show against USC, is still, laughably, the best team in the conference, and should win it rather undisputed. I had Wisconsin occupying the number 2 spot, and I would leave them there for now, knowing that Penn State has to go win in Madison before they can claim it. Michigan...eh...I was optimistic. I still think they are capable of putting together a run and finishing at 6-6 or something like that, but 4th in the conference was too high. I've got Michigan State right where they need to be, and I would move Northwestern into the 4 spot vacated by Michigan (pandering to Lake the Posts? Maybe...) Seriously, Northwestern has impressed me thus far, and frankly, I don't see anybody out of the remaining teams as a clear favorite to beat them. The rest is still a jumbled mess of 5 to 7 win ballclubs; ranking them is an exercise in futility. I will say that Purdue, despite the loss, looked sharp against Oregon.

3)Javon Ringer has emerged as the early season best-bet Heisman hopeful from the Big Ten. Real deal or non-conference smoke screen? Does anyone from the Big Ten have a prayer for the Heisman, or is it too late?

Nobody from the Big Ten has a prayer to win the Heisman this year. I doubt anyone will even be invited. Beanie had a shot, but his nagging injury will prevent him from being a serious contender. As unfortunate is this is, Ringer could run for 200+ in every single one of his remaining games, and unless MSU is a contender nationally, he won't get a sniff of Heisman. There are too many good QB's (Tebow, Daniels, Bradford) out there for a player from the marginal Big Ten to get any Heisman love.

4)After three weeks it is time to give your team a new slogan. What is it and why is it what it is?

Illinois Football: Wither Art Thou, Mendenhall?

Indiana Football: We're Probably Better than the Basketball Team This Year.

Iowa Football: They're not booing, they're saying...well...yes, they're booing.

Michigan Football: Not Recommended for Consumption.

Michigan State Football: Now with 75% more Scowling!

Minnesota Football: GO, EXCELSIOR, WIN FIGHT!

Northwestern Football: Affordable Tickets since 1903

Ohio State Football - now with completely justified disrespect.

Penn State Football: I can't believe this offense is working either.

Purdue Football: Position Wanted: Kicker

Wisconsin Football: Just Don't Make us Pass.

5)By now, you've likely adopted a favorite non Big Ten team to watch. Flex your football worldliness by convincing your fellow Big Ten kool-aid drinkers to watch your "other" team.

If you're a fan of gutty, well coached, slightly under-talented teams achieving at high levels, I recommend that you watch Wake Forest play every Saturday.

1) Riley Skinner poses naked.
2) Jim Grobe looks asleep on the sidelines.
3) Wake's defense is better at forcing turnovers than Michigan's offense.
4) Kicker Sam Swank is automatic inside of 75 yards.

Seriously, they're fun to root for because they're the perpetual underdog. This weekend, they face Florida State, who is either ranked, or on the cusp of being ranked depending on what poll you look at. Should be a fun matchup.

BTB Preseason Awards Show: Part II

A huge thanks to LTP for hosting/doing the grunt work for these awards. The final results are now up, but you'll have to go over there to find them (at least for today). We're going to go ahead and reveal our picks for the 1st team defense today, and do a compare/contrast tomorrow.

On with the show:

BEAUFORD'S 1ST TEAM ALL CONFERENCE DEFENSE

CB: Morgan Trent MI
CB: Vontae Davis IL
SS: Anthony Scirrotto PSU
FS: Shane Carter WI
OLB: James Laurinitis OSU
OLB: Marcus Freeman OSU
MLB: Greg Jones MSU
DE: Maurice Evans PSU
DE: Greg Middleton IN
DT: John Gill NW
DT: Terrence Taylor MI

Eyebrow Raisers

If there is anybody on this list capable of inducing a serious eyebrow raise, it's Morgan Trent at corner. Here's why I picked him:

1) He's got a ton of experience. Cornerback is, in my opinion, the hardest position to play. You've got to have raw athleticism combined with schematic knowledge (when you have help, when you don't) and the ability to anticipate the offensive playcall. It's as much a thinking man's position as any on the field - and experience plays a huge role in that development.

2) The athleticism is there; this has never been questioned:



3) Donovan Warren - who has garnered some all conference votes himself - is on the other corner. For the first time in a long time, Michigan has two cornerbacks who are legitimately shut-down. There is no escaping them; only hoping that inexperienced safety play will bring them down. Trent will have the opportunity to make big plays - and I think his experience and athleticism will allow him to do so.

4) I couldn't bring myself to vote for another Ohio State defender...

Fringe Picks

There really isn't anyone else on this list that I feel that I have to defend too heavily. Maybe John Gill at Northwestern? He's listed on the Outland Trophy and Nagurski trophy watch lists, and he is one of 4 returning linemen. If our ridiculously early preview of Northwestern is to be believed, line play is going to be paramount to the Wildcat's success this year. I can only assume that a new defensive coordinator will make this a priority, and as such, Gill can be expected to have a monster season.

Duh

Everyone else. This list was much easier to pick than the offense, and (sneak preview!) the matches of our picks to the BTB picks reflect this.

Big Ten Bloggers Preseason Awards Show

A few days ago, an email flitted across my screen saying that Lake the Posts (friend [Ed - only friend, judging by recent events], Northwestern blog, good looking chap) was putting on preseason awards based on votes culled from the loose conglomeration known as "The Big Ten Bloggers." Round one would consist of our predictions for final standings, with all-Big-Ten awards to follow. The impetus for creating the awards was to prove that we, the intelligent bloggers of the Big Ten, would do a better job than the MSM at picking final standings, most notably concerning Northwestern. Well...the Northwestern bit didn't quite play out - and the MSM thing remains to be seen, but cruise on over to LtP for a complete wrap up. Notice that we're not in any outlier catagory - which is good. It's not our intensions to ruffle any feathers around here, now is it Champ? [Ed - more on this later]

For those disinclined to link out, here is how the conglomorate voted:

1 - Ohio State
2 - Penn State
3 - Wisconsin
4 - Illinois
5 - Michigan State
6 - Michigan
7 - Iowa
8 - Purdue
9 - Northwestern
10 - Indiana
11 - Minnesota

A pretty fair list, all things considered. According to LtP:

I was surprised at the wide disparity in voting. It isn't often teams get votes ranging 8 spots as a few did, including Northwestern. I was surprised by the Illini and Michigan State outcomes. I haven't bought in to the fact that Dufrene will keep "Ds" in check like Mendenhall for the Illini and also the on-field leadership of J. Leman is a bigger impact from a chemistry standpoint than I think non-Illini followers realize. For Sparty, I simply don't believe they have proven they know how to finish and while Ringer is legit, the loss of Devin Thomas removes an electrifying wrinkle that kept teams off-balance. That being said, my Michigan pick at 3 is completely irrational and goes against my better judgment. Perhaps I'm trying to hype them as I believe, truly believe, we will beat them in the Big House this year and who wants to win against Michigan and have it be a "down" year for them?

Beyond Ohio State, this was a crap shoot. I'm sure that all the BTB will be dissecting their picks today, and it will be interesting to see how the voting went. I know Nittany White Out already has their picks up, and I believe there was some sort of disagreement betwixt us. When I got a text from Champ saying "rant up" I went immediately to the basement to wait out the storm. I should make it clear that Beauford made the picks that went into the voting, with some help from Champ. So the following are not Champ's picks, FWIW.

Beauford's Picks:

1 - Ohio State
Sometimes, stereotypes exist because they're true. Sometimes, the majority is right because they're right - and there's no sense in playing the contrarian. In this case, Ohio State has, by far, the most talented team of anybody in the Big Ten and, IMO, the only team capable of competing for a National Title. On paper - which is the only thing we have to go on at this point - Ohio State should go undefeated in conference. I haven't done the Ridiculously Early Preview on them yet - but I would imagine that "trouble games" exist at Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Do they play Wisconsin this year?

2 - Wisconsin
This was a toss up between Penn State and Wisconsin. My reason for choosing Wisconsin was really foolishly simple: I compared schedules. Penn State's gotta play @ Wisky, @ Ohio State, while Wisconsin gets those games at home. The toughest road test the Badgers are going to face is probably @ Michigan, and with the season Michigan's predicted to have, that formarly ensconsed "L" becomes a toss-up leaning towards Badgers. When the dust settles, the most interesting game in the Big Ten this year may very well be that Oct. 11th rumble between Penn State and Wisconsin.

3 - Penn State
See above

4 - Michigan
5 - Michigan State
6 - Northwestern

Here's my rationale: Michigan State is probably better than Michigan this year. On paper. I know that I said that paper is the only thing we have to go on, but that doesn't apply for Michigan State. You see, we make up the rules as we go here... The problem is that Michigan State is still Michigan State, despite hiring a coach that looks like Belechik and glares alot. The end result for the Spartans last year was...the same as it always is: one game within .500, a demoralizing loss to Big Brother, and a bowl defeat. Every year I pen Michigan State as being vastly improved, capable of challenging for the Big Ten, and probable winners against Michigan. Every year, I'm elated at the results (which are pretty much the exact opposite of my predictions). This year, every one of the aforementioned rings true. They should be improved (see Hoyer and Receiving Corp), they should present as much a challenge to Ohio State as anybody, and they should beat Michigan. But I'm tired of getting burned on that - so until they prove to me otherwise, Michigan State will be a middle of the road Big Ten team incapable of beating quality opponents in conference. I'm begging the Spartans to prove me wrong.

Call it homerism for my honorary favorite team this year, or call it a favor to this blog's only friend Lake the Posts, but I am buying the idea that this year's Wildcats can make some noise. For many of the reasons Champ outlined in his preview, I don't think they will challenge for the title, but I do expect them to beat some teams that they traditionally don't (including Michigan?). They've got to get better at scoring points, and they've got to shore up their defense, especially line-play. Hopefully two new coordinators can accomplish that. Northwestern gets themselves bowl eligible, and there is much celebrating in Evanston this year.

Which brings us to Michigan. Here is why I believe Michigan is not this year's Notre Dame:

1) Notre Dame has been mediocre-to-bad the past decade. Sure, they had a good stretch there with Brady Quinn's senior season, but a closer look at said season reveals a lot of smoke and mirrors. Their schedule that year was brutally easy, with losses coming to Michigan and USC - the two quality opponents they faced. The schallacking they took at the hands of LSU in the Sugar Bowl was a surprise to no one paying attention. Every time Notre Dame has had to reload, they've failed miserably.

Michigan, on the other hand, has been good-to-great the past decade, proving time and again that the talent that Carr recruits is capable of stepping in and filling holes left by departing players. When Henson jilted the team in favor of Baseball, and a half-cocked Navarre had to step in, Michigan still went 8-4. Navarre ended up breaking several passing records en route to a career only remembered as mediocre. When he was done, it was Henne for 4 years. The line of skill positions that have follwed the "had success, graduated/drafted, then been replaced with success" time-line is non-stop. The hiccup with an unseasoned Navarre is the best example that I can think of of a player stepping into a skill position and sucking for a year. Receivers, tailbacks, and (by and large) quarterbacks have been one star after another for as long as I can remember. Non-skill positions tend to be harder to judge, but even when Michigan has had to replace entire defenses, the results have been bowl-eligible 8 to 9 win teams. This has not been the case at Notre Dame: see Jimmy Clausen's efforts this past year, or their attempts at replacing their running back who bolted early. If Lloyd Carr was coaching this team, you would have them penned for another 8 win season. Just because Rodriguez doesn't have the exact personel to run "his offense" doesn't mean the talent isn't there to run "an offense" capable of winning.

Plain and simple: Michigan has proven they can weather the storm when it comes to replacing graduating/drafted players. Notre Dame has not.

2) Notre Dame's coaching has been suspect at best. Despite the blinding light off of Weis's multiple super-bowl rings (and the subsequent reflection from the fried chicken grease on his chin), the man has done virtually nothing in terms of beating top-notch oppoenents during his tenure at ND. He came to ND unproven, and is rapidly proving himself to be a bad head coach. Rodriguez may be untested at Michigan, but he is at least a proven collegiate head coach with a track record of success.

3) The cupboard is not bare at UM. When Rodriguez took over the program at WVU, he was working with athletes who were mostly passed on by big-time programs. It took him a few years to build up the base of players that he could work with, which explains his dismal first-year records. I will wager that the level of athlete that he is inheriting at UM - previous starter or not - is far higher than what he inherited at WVU. Thus, I believe that this team will be ready to compete at a higher level than many think this year.

4) Michigan had moderate to great success running zone-left long bomb offense. They never had to get tricky because they didn't have to. Now, with the departures on offense and defense, Michigan has to get tricky, and they have the best coach in the game at doing that. Combine Rodriguez's willingness to run plays not designed around a punishing left tackle with the fact that nobody has any film or any clue about what this team is going to look like, and you get a lot of surprised opponents. I fully expect Michigan to lose their fair share of ball games this year, but I also expect that they will catch quite a few teams with their pants down. Everybody and their mother knew what ND was going to come with last year - and ND played the part beautifully. Nobody knows what Michigan's coming with this year, which is an advantage.

5) We've got Vegas on our side! The folks who are actually paid to make predictions with millions riding on them say that there are only 9 teams with better odds at a National Championship than Michigan. That's right folks, they said National.

Also - Michigan gets Sparty, Northwestern, and Illinois at home.

7 - Illinois

Speaking of Illinois, I think that they will be a dangerous team, but that the loss of Mendenhall is going to hurt a ton. Juice can't throw; it's that simple. If the Illini can't produce a consistantly awesome rusher to replace Mendenhall, then I can't see how that offense is going to score points. Mix that with an already shaky defense losing an awesome 'backer, and a competent safety (Kevin Mitchell), and throw in a dose of suspect in game coaching of the Zooker, and you get a 7th place Big Ten team. The Illini may still have some shine to them from last year's Rose Bowl team, and I think the BTB final vote reflects that shine. The Illini won't suck this year - but they will take a step backwards.

8 - Purdue
There isn't much to say here. Tiller's last season, and "meh" collection of players coming of a mediocre season last year, etc. Purdue will beat the low-end Big 10 teams, and will lose to the top-end. In full disclosure, there wasn't a whole lot going on mentally when I slotted Purdue in at 8th.

9 - Iowa
With apologies to BHGP, I don't see this year's Iowa squad as contending for anything this year. Depending on their OOC results, they could get themselves bowl eligible, and (in hindsight) are probably deserving of a better showing than 9th.

10 - Minnesota
They were a frieght train of suck last year, and I don't expect this year to be much different. Next year, you could see them sneaking up into the middle of the conference given the mildly awesome level of recruiting they've been able to sustain. But not this year.

11 - Indiana
Loss of top flight talent? Check
Potential loss of field-equalizing QB? Check
Last place finish in the Big 10? Check


Wrap Up

We weren't really that much different than the combined results. We seem to be in disagreement about Illinois and Michigan, but other than those two, we seem to be right on the mainstream money. Tomorrow, I'll have a post comparing our little vote to those of the MSM and preview mags.

Northwestern: with Special Guest "Lake the Posts!"

Note from the Editor:
Apparently, I did alright in my initial assessment of Northwestern last week, which is to say that I didn't piss off Lake the Posts enough to stop them from weighing in on a ridiculously early preview. Lake the Posts, for those uninitiated, is an excellent Northwestern blog. You know you're doing something right when the mothership (aka EDSBS) asks you to do a guest spot - and Lake the Posts been doing those things right for a long time now. Please add them to your daily reading if they are not already there.

B2

One thing the media will harp on that is ridiculously off base:
Fitz' lack of experience. Yes, he is the youngest DI coach, but now in his third year, he has a new offensive coordinator, Mick McCall from Bowling Green and a new defensive coordinator, Mike Hankwitz, from Wisconsin, along with a new defensive line coach. These are all of Fitz' guys, and with a senior-laden team at every key skill position, there are no excuses in 2008. This is the "every 3-4 years Northwestern threatens the upper tier of the Big Ten" year.

One thing the media will completely ignore that is integral to this team's success:
Northwestern's kick coverage teams. We were horrible last year and spotted teams 10-20 yard advantages based on a combo of bad kickoffs and bad fundamentals on coverage. [Ed - Special Teams always gets the shaft. Sincerely, ex-special teams guy...]

Most important contributors on each side of the ball:
Tyrell Sutton on offense. The heart and soul of the team and former Big Ten Freshman of the Year has been hurt much of the last two seasons. He somehow is flying way under the radar this season, and if he stays healthy will be the most significant contributor to reducing Bacher's INTs.


Area that scares you as an opponent:
Every time we have the ball, we believe we can score. Our return to the no huddle should have defensive coordinators shaking and our depth at WR and RB make the only question mark is our young offensive line - we've got 2 guys who have yet to take their first collegiate snap in game action. However, the depth of weaponry and Bacher's anticipated improvement under the tutelage of QB-friendly OC, Mick McCall are a recipe for converting all of the gaudy offensive yardage stats into actual points.

Area that makes you salivate as an opponent:
Our defense, in particular defensive end. We are placing a ton of stock in Mike Hankwitz' (DC) ability to inject instant pass rush results into what has been nearly a decade of ineptitude under former DC, Greg Colby. Considering it is essentially the same personnel as last season, we'll know relatively quickly.

Random factor that you think will come into play this season:
This is a tad ridiculous, but I've noticed that only one coach in the post WWII era has been above .500 at anytime after his second season. Fitz is four games under .500 and will be flirting with this crazy karma after what hopes to be the first non-conference sweep in 44 years. Both streaks have a chance to be snapped in 2008.

Overall Record: 8-4 (5-3)
Final Big Ten Standing: Fifth
Bowl Destination: Champs Sports Bowl (Orlando)

Northwestern Rocks my Socks

Fear the purple. Failing that, fear the mascot. And failing that, fear...the Olive Garden?

It's very rare that anyone is allowed total access to the mind of Beauford Bixel, but it's not for the cliche reasons you may think. Unlike Gary Larson, who I assume has chickens on roller skates delivering singing telegrams to various parts of his brain, I have a depressingly large space with very little in way of decorum. A glimpse into my mind is rather like being put into the Total Perspective Vortex of Frogstar World B. For those uninitiated into the brilliance of Douglas Adams, this Vortex essentially shows you the vastness of space in all it's infinite bigness, and then shows you where you are in relation to it with a tiny marker exclaiming "you are here." My mind is depressingly large, and depressingly void of chickens on roller skates.

So my thought process was...shall we say...a bit disconnected when I decided to write a college football blog, and even more disconnected when I said to myself "We'll just cover the whole big-ten, there are just too many team specific blogs out there."

The disconnect lies in the fact that I know virtually nothing about Northwestern, a shameful admission to be sure, but one that I think can be understood by the vast majority of college football fans. Honestly, I know they wear purple, and that they are the wildcats. This is the extent of my knowledge. One nice thing about having to post about all 11 Big 10 teams is the fact that I get to learn about teams I don't know. The not so nice thing is that more often than not, I end up sounding like the ass end of a tuba. So, here is the preview to the preview, which is admittedly sparse.

As penance for my sin of being a Big Ten elitist bastard, I am officially declaring Northwestern as my honorary favorite team, and will be following their season with great interest. So be prepared, reader, to stumble through a complete outsider's attempts the gain intimate knowledge of a team about which previously nothing was known.

2007 in one word: Streaky. The Wildcats started well enough, handling Northeastern (Northeaster vs. Northwestern? Awesome) and Nevada easily. Then the wheels were forcibly removed by a Duke team that hadn't won a game in 22 tries. While the win had to come against somebody for Duke, it was embarrassing for the Big Ten none the less. Kinda like that pitcher who gives up the record setting home run. It was inevitable, but maaaaan does it suck to be that guy. In a cruel twist of fate, the scheduling Gods then punished the Wildcats by a brutal run of @ OSU and Michigan, both of which were, as expected, losses. Then came the rebound: wins against Michigan State, Minnesota, and Eastern Michigan, followed immediately by 2 losses, a win, and a loss. It seems, at first glance, that the Wildcats were just a streaky bunch capable of hanging with bowl teams (see: Michigan State) but mostly skating by teams they should beat, and losing to teams they shouldn't. The scheduling Gods had a lot to do with that streaky-ness, but the Wildcats were, I'm sure, hoping for more last season.

2008 Tangibles:

Schedule
8/30 Syracuse
9/06 @ Duke
9/13 Southern Illinois
9/20 Ohio
9/27 @ Iowa
10/11 Michigan State
10/18 Purdue
10/25 @ Indiana
11/01 @ Minnesota
11/08 Ohio State
11/15 @ Michigan
11/22 Illinois

This schedule is an exact parody of this news story in which a couple of scuba divers were stranded for 48 hours. They made it through the night, and right as the helicopter's rescue basket dangled but a few yards away, a giant venomous sea snake reared its head between the swimmers and safety. Fortunately, the divers made it. I'm not sure Northwestern will survive the venom of Ohio State, @ Michigan, Illinois...

Coach


Pat Fitzgerald enters his third season as head coach. At the time of his appointment he was 31, making him the youngest coach in Division 1 football by nearly 5 years.

Returning Playmakers
Again - I am no expert. I would imagine that C.J. Bacher would fall under this catagory. Last season saw him break a record at NU, passing for 520 yards in a single game, impressive for anybody's standards. You can see nearly all 520 yards in this clip:

What I see is a QB with a pretty strong arm and a pretty good head on his shoulders. 19 TD's in a season is impressive, but his 19 INT's temper that impressiveness a bit. If he can cut down on his turn overs, he should be solid.

Sherrick McManis returns kicks, plays cornerback, and toys with Lex Luther during the off season. He's very good.

We'll see what I can do in getting a more...informative...preview up soon. I'm sure Champ will do his best, and I'm trying to line up a guest poster who has a better grasp of this situation than I do.

Have a great weekend.