1) Ohio State (0)
2) USC (0)
3) Oklahoma (0)
4) Florida (0)
5) Georgia (0)
WTF, right? Right. Given my general "shakedown" philosophy that puts teams of indeterminable ranking (Can we really say that Flordia is 4, and Georgia is 5?) just close enough to let the play on the field sort it out, the top 5 is unchanged. Ohio State has a check in the win column despite the obvious struggles against Ohio. USC didn't even play. We'll figure out which of those teams is really number 1 after next week. If OSU ends up winning, they are most assuredly the number 1 team in the country. Who cares where they are this week? Same with Florida and Georgia - they play each other, so as long as they're withing shouting distance of each other it doesn't matter exactly where they fall.
6) Penn State (1)
7) Missouri (-1)
8) LSU (+2)
9) Texas (+2)
10) Auburn (+2)
I still remain bullish on Penn State, much more so than the national media at large. Wisconsin very nearly proved me right against Marshall - and since I've been down on Wisky since the beginning, they remain firmly outside the top ten. LSU didn't play, but move up as a result of WVU. Texas and Auburn get bumped up too because frankly, I wasn't impressed with USF - and since they don't actually play anybody in their vicinity, they have to get dropped.
11) USF (-2)
12) Eastern Carolina (+13)
13) Wake Forest (+1)
14) BYU (-1)
15) Utah (0)
Eastern Carolina gets the huge jump as a result of some resume ranking by yours truly. There is nobody in the country who has beaten two opponents of the quality that ECU has. Until they lose, they get to hover just outside the top ten. Wake had a scare, but they are well coached and have senior leadership at key positions. I expect them to crack the top ten before the end of the season. BYU and Utah play each other, so we'll know more about them after their game.
16) Wisconsin (0)
17) Texas Tech (0)
18) Cal (0)
19) Oregon (0)
20) Arizona State (0)
Uhhh, right. These teams all won - none did so spectacularly, and as such, they hold position.
21) Kansas (+4)
22) Fresno State (+3)
23) Illinois (+2)
24) West Virginia (-1 billion)
25) UCLA (0)
Lots of reshuffling here. Kansas, ugh, at least they're winning against their cupcakes. Fresno State gets some love, Illinois looked good and lost to a top 10 team in week 1, so they're back. West Virginia still deserves a ranking despite the shit-show, and UCLA clings to that last spot. Look for the combined poll later today.
Showing posts with label Picture Me Blogpollin. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Picture Me Blogpollin. Show all posts
Monday, September 8, 2008
Tuesday, September 2, 2008
Picture Me Blog Poll'in: Week 1, B2
B2's Blog Poll:
1) OSU (0)
2) USC (+1)
3) Oklahoma (-1)
4) Florida (+1)
5) Georgia (-1)
What the rejig? It's my philosophy that you don't drop places after wins. It's also my philosophy that we don't get a sample size for the preseason poll, and early games are hardly an indication of how good a team will be. However, now that we have a sample size - albeit microscopic - we can start to sort through the mess. The bottom line is that these top 5 teams are all really good; they proved it this weekend. Any of these teams are now ranked high enough to be at that magical #2 spot by the end of the season, the rejiggerations are largely cosmetic. Atop the poll is still Ohio State. I thought they were the best team going into the season, and I didn't see anything that would tell me different. The Beanie Wells potential injury is moot because they haven't lost a game yet as a result. USC put their foot on Virginia's throat, and didn't let up for 60 minutes. There was no room for Virginia to even hang around. Because I consider Virginia to be much more "quality" than Chattanooga, they jump Oklahoma. Florida's big concern, on my part, was their defense, and in particular their secondary. They played really well - making Florida a legitimate National Title contender and (again - given the tiny sample size) a more complete team than Georgia.
6) Missouri (0)
7) Penn State (+1)
8) USF (+1)
9) WVU (+1)
10) LSU (+1)
I had Clemson in the top 10. I was wrong, and have done 100 pushups while chanting "never trust a Bowden" as punishment. Missouri - who looked strong against Illinois - gets to stay put, and everyone else slides up a spot. Penn State put 66 on the board - which signals to me that their offense may actually resemble offense this season. I've had them as my Big Ten runner-up over the national pick of Wisconsin from the beginning. I think Penn State is a top ten team, and I think that they'll be in that region at the end of the season. USF gets the nod over WVU because, despite the offense, West Virginia's defense looked like GARBIDGE. Those two still play each other, so the pillow fight will resolve itself. LSU looked good against App State, but it was just App State. That's right - I said it. LSU did exactly what a good team should do against a 1-AA opponent, no matter if said opponent beat Michigan last year.
11) Texas (+1)
12) Auburn (+2)
13) BYU (+2)
14) Wake Forest (+6)
15) Utah (+1)
Texas gets the +1 for winning, and for having a quarterback named Colt. I had Virginia Tech here - BeamerBall! Did you know they play BeamerBall? Special Teams! VT has great Special Teams! - right. Here's the deal though: I don't think that VT is really as bad as they were last week, and I still expect them to contend for an ACC title. That being said, Auburn and BYU both get bumped after victories over Sisters of the Poor and St. Christof's reformatory school for prepubescent boys respectively. Wake Forest gets the biggest boost in the entire pool after dismantling Baylor. Skinner looked impressive, and poses naked, earning him double points. I've also learned that Grobe knows what he's doing, despite looking half asleep at times. The defense is good, the offense is efficient, and I expect Wake to win the ACC again this year. Shame on me for not believing. Utah gets a bump for beating Michigan, but given the disarray that was the Michigan offense, the bump is not significant.
16) Wisconsin (+3)
17) Texas Tech (+1)
18) Cal (+4)
19) Oregon (+4)
20) Arizona State (NR)
Wisconsin let Akron hang around longer than I wanted them to, but I still think that Wisky is built tough. They're not a Ferrari - they don't have the players to blow the doors off you. However, I think that Biliema's squad is built to hang tough with just about anyone in the country. I begrudgingly give Texas Tech the 17 spot, but I don't think they deserve much of a bump after that shaky defensive performance. Cal beat Michigan State, who I had as a ranked team, and as such moves up 4 spots into "solidly ranked" status. Oregon and Arizona State round out the top 20.
21) Alabama (NR)
22) Virginia Tech (-9)
23) Clemson (-16)
24) Central Michigan (0)
25) UCLA (NR)
BUBBLE: Tennessee, Kansas,
While impressive, I'm not aboard the 'Bama bandwagon just yet. However, I will say this: Alabama is much better than I thought they would be this year. You have to throw them in the melting pot of teams that could win the SEC East. As such, I largely expect the rankings to work themselves out regarding 'Bama. They're probably a little low here - but they'll have their chance to work up the ladder. Virginia Tech and Clemson are both big losers, but both capable of threatening Wake's way to the top of the ACC. I still like VT a little better than Clemson, if only for the Bowden factor, and it's reflected here. Central gets a pass - but they are dangerously close to being unranked as bigger teams start winning bigger games. UCLA is in for this week, but I think their victory last night was largely a Tennessee choke job combined with the weird juji that happens when sensible Midwestern teams travel West early.
I'm still not buying Kansas.
Poll Philosophy
This is not a "resume" poll that you see others floating around. Resume, for those unaware, is basically taking a team's "what have you done for me so far" and ranking them as such. Therefore, you get some craziness that would never happen. For example, in this week's resume poll, Eastern Carolina would have to be ranked in the top 10, if not top 5. In order to have this, one has to assume that preseason polls are complete and total garbidge.
However, I set my preseason poll to "shakedown" mode - putting similar teams that play each other in similar places. My basis for this is that there is only one poll that really matters - the last one. Everything from here until there is for media to talk about, and blogs to make fun of. It doesn't matter that Ohio State is 1 and USC is 2 in my poll: they play each other, and we'll get to see who is better. Same with Utah vs. BYU, the ACC shakedown, 'Bama being ranked in the 20's, etc. These first 3 weeks before conference play largely sets up the shakedown, with the premise that any team that actually has a chance at the title game will be ranked high enough to get there if they go undefeated, mostly because they'll have to beat teams ranked in their general vicinity. If nobody goes undefeated, we'll get into resume's, etc. but by that time, we'll have enough sample data to actually do that.
1) OSU (0)
2) USC (+1)
3) Oklahoma (-1)
4) Florida (+1)
5) Georgia (-1)
What the rejig? It's my philosophy that you don't drop places after wins. It's also my philosophy that we don't get a sample size for the preseason poll, and early games are hardly an indication of how good a team will be. However, now that we have a sample size - albeit microscopic - we can start to sort through the mess. The bottom line is that these top 5 teams are all really good; they proved it this weekend. Any of these teams are now ranked high enough to be at that magical #2 spot by the end of the season, the rejiggerations are largely cosmetic. Atop the poll is still Ohio State. I thought they were the best team going into the season, and I didn't see anything that would tell me different. The Beanie Wells potential injury is moot because they haven't lost a game yet as a result. USC put their foot on Virginia's throat, and didn't let up for 60 minutes. There was no room for Virginia to even hang around. Because I consider Virginia to be much more "quality" than Chattanooga, they jump Oklahoma. Florida's big concern, on my part, was their defense, and in particular their secondary. They played really well - making Florida a legitimate National Title contender and (again - given the tiny sample size) a more complete team than Georgia.
6) Missouri (0)
7) Penn State (+1)
8) USF (+1)
9) WVU (+1)
10) LSU (+1)
I had Clemson in the top 10. I was wrong, and have done 100 pushups while chanting "never trust a Bowden" as punishment. Missouri - who looked strong against Illinois - gets to stay put, and everyone else slides up a spot. Penn State put 66 on the board - which signals to me that their offense may actually resemble offense this season. I've had them as my Big Ten runner-up over the national pick of Wisconsin from the beginning. I think Penn State is a top ten team, and I think that they'll be in that region at the end of the season. USF gets the nod over WVU because, despite the offense, West Virginia's defense looked like GARBIDGE. Those two still play each other, so the pillow fight will resolve itself. LSU looked good against App State, but it was just App State. That's right - I said it. LSU did exactly what a good team should do against a 1-AA opponent, no matter if said opponent beat Michigan last year.
11) Texas (+1)
12) Auburn (+2)
13) BYU (+2)
14) Wake Forest (+6)
15) Utah (+1)
Texas gets the +1 for winning, and for having a quarterback named Colt. I had Virginia Tech here - BeamerBall! Did you know they play BeamerBall? Special Teams! VT has great Special Teams! - right. Here's the deal though: I don't think that VT is really as bad as they were last week, and I still expect them to contend for an ACC title. That being said, Auburn and BYU both get bumped after victories over Sisters of the Poor and St. Christof's reformatory school for prepubescent boys respectively. Wake Forest gets the biggest boost in the entire pool after dismantling Baylor. Skinner looked impressive, and poses naked, earning him double points. I've also learned that Grobe knows what he's doing, despite looking half asleep at times. The defense is good, the offense is efficient, and I expect Wake to win the ACC again this year. Shame on me for not believing. Utah gets a bump for beating Michigan, but given the disarray that was the Michigan offense, the bump is not significant.
16) Wisconsin (+3)
17) Texas Tech (+1)
18) Cal (+4)
19) Oregon (+4)
20) Arizona State (NR)
Wisconsin let Akron hang around longer than I wanted them to, but I still think that Wisky is built tough. They're not a Ferrari - they don't have the players to blow the doors off you. However, I think that Biliema's squad is built to hang tough with just about anyone in the country. I begrudgingly give Texas Tech the 17 spot, but I don't think they deserve much of a bump after that shaky defensive performance. Cal beat Michigan State, who I had as a ranked team, and as such moves up 4 spots into "solidly ranked" status. Oregon and Arizona State round out the top 20.
21) Alabama (NR)
22) Virginia Tech (-9)
23) Clemson (-16)
24) Central Michigan (0)
25) UCLA (NR)
BUBBLE: Tennessee, Kansas,
While impressive, I'm not aboard the 'Bama bandwagon just yet. However, I will say this: Alabama is much better than I thought they would be this year. You have to throw them in the melting pot of teams that could win the SEC East. As such, I largely expect the rankings to work themselves out regarding 'Bama. They're probably a little low here - but they'll have their chance to work up the ladder. Virginia Tech and Clemson are both big losers, but both capable of threatening Wake's way to the top of the ACC. I still like VT a little better than Clemson, if only for the Bowden factor, and it's reflected here. Central gets a pass - but they are dangerously close to being unranked as bigger teams start winning bigger games. UCLA is in for this week, but I think their victory last night was largely a Tennessee choke job combined with the weird juji that happens when sensible Midwestern teams travel West early.
I'm still not buying Kansas.
Poll Philosophy
This is not a "resume" poll that you see others floating around. Resume, for those unaware, is basically taking a team's "what have you done for me so far" and ranking them as such. Therefore, you get some craziness that would never happen. For example, in this week's resume poll, Eastern Carolina would have to be ranked in the top 10, if not top 5. In order to have this, one has to assume that preseason polls are complete and total garbidge.
However, I set my preseason poll to "shakedown" mode - putting similar teams that play each other in similar places. My basis for this is that there is only one poll that really matters - the last one. Everything from here until there is for media to talk about, and blogs to make fun of. It doesn't matter that Ohio State is 1 and USC is 2 in my poll: they play each other, and we'll get to see who is better. Same with Utah vs. BYU, the ACC shakedown, 'Bama being ranked in the 20's, etc. These first 3 weeks before conference play largely sets up the shakedown, with the premise that any team that actually has a chance at the title game will be ranked high enough to get there if they go undefeated, mostly because they'll have to beat teams ranked in their general vicinity. If nobody goes undefeated, we'll get into resume's, etc. but by that time, we'll have enough sample data to actually do that.
Tuesday, August 19, 2008
Picture Me Blog Poll'in: Preseason, B2 edition
DISCLAIMER: TOGTM did not make the cut to be in the official Blogpoll as run by Mgoblog. Never deterred, we decided nonetheless to go ahead and publish a poll, just to see how wrong we can be.
This preseason poll is garbage, as there is absolutely nothing to distinguish the middle 20 teams. As such, my polling philosophy is to rank teams that I feel have a good chance at winning a conference, running through their schedule relatively unscathed, or having a shot to be in the BCS picture when it's all said and done. We'll start with the top 5:
1) Ohio State
2) Oklahoma
3) USC
4) Georgia
5) Florida
Ohio State is the most talented team on paper. They return nearly everyone sans Gholston, made it to the title game last year, and have the best coach in the game at the helm. I sincerely believe that anyone not putting OSU as their #1 is letting recent collapses in title games influence their decision. Oklahoma should plow through their schedule, and with Sam Bradford at QB throwing behind an experienced O-line, they get the nod as the number 2 team. Right behind them goes USC, which is really moot because depending on the outcome of the USC vs. OSU game, this is going to get all shifty-like. Georgia seems to be the flavor of the month, but recent injuries and a general disdain for consensus has them at number 4. Florida goes off at number 5, ACL's be damned. Basically, I expect that at least one of the title game participants will come from this group. Whoever gets through unscathed will probably be at least #2 by the end of the season. Even the loser of the USC v. OSU tilt will probably have a shot at #2 if they get through the rest of their schedule.
6) Missouri
7) Clemson
8) Penn State
9) USF
10) WVU
Chase Daniels is for real, and the Big XII North sucks. Missouri has the potential to contend for the Big XII title, and gets the nod at 6. Clemson...eh...I'm not too high on any team from the ACC this year, and have serious doubts as to whether one has enough mustard to run the table. I think that on paper (which is all we have right now) Clemson is the most talented, but I still think they get beat by Wake on a Thursday night game, and VaTech if they make it to the championship game. Under the philosophy of "who has a legit shot at winning a conference" I go with Penn State at 8. I think this year's Penn State team has the ability to be rather 2005-ish. They have a lot of player returning, but (as Champ will point out in a later post) not a lot of returing talent. However, their offensive line looks good, and if Jaypa can bottle even a little of the juji juice that worked for Robinson the last time they ran the spread, they should be contending for the Big Ten title. USF will win the Big East until WVU proves to me that they can beat them. Speaking of which, WVU rounds out the top ten. I'm not buying Stewart's stewardship. Either USF or WVU will be there as the Big East champ this year - the poll will sort itself out.
11) LSU
12) Texas
13) Virginia Tech
14) Auburn
15) BYU
I don't have much to say about LSU other than I really, really hope they lose to App. State in the opener. Texas will probably flirt with the top 10 until they lose to Oklahoma, and will probably end up hovering just outside the top ten for the season. Colt McCoy is good enough to win a few that they shouldn't. Virginia Tech should win the Coastal division. Always a good defense and good special teams. Auburn is as vanilla as they come. They should compete in the SEC West, and may even knock off LSU for a spot in the SEC title game. BYU is here because they're talented, play in a weak conference, and will probably be this year's version of Hawaii.
16) Utah
17) Tennessee
18) Texas Tech
19) Wisconsin
20) Wake Forest
I've got Utah at 16 for the exact same reason I've got BYU at 15. One of these two teams will be good enough to crash a BCS bowl. Tennessee falls into the same catagory as Texas Tech: Show me. The defense should be good in Knoxville, but I need to see it before they go higher. Texas Tech seems to be a chic pick, but they're experiencing some backlash lately. They're good enough to be middle-ranked, but, like Tenn., I need to see some proof of goodness before I move them into the top 15. Wisconsin could be as good as Penn State this year - and really could be ranked anywhere in the miasma that is 10-20. All Wake Forest has done recently is played really, really solid football with guys that were largely passed over by SEC and ACC monsters. They've done it for 2 years running now, and I don't see why they should slow their roll here.
21) Cal
22) Michigan
23) Oregon
24) Central Michigan
25) Michigan State
Cal? See: Michigan State. Michigan is a wildcard deserving of rank, not deserving of anything higher. If they dismantle Utah, I'll put them in the top 20; if they get smoked, out they go. Oregon was average last year without Dixon. They don't have Dixon this year (I stole that from Champ, who will ridicule me in his post). Central should rule the MAC, unless you believe Jason Whitlock, who says that Ball State's gonna crash a BCS bowl. Michigan State gets the nod at 25 - but it's moot, as the loser of Cal v. MSU gets dropped for South Carolina after the first game of the season. Oh, and Kansas isn't on this poll. That's not a mistake.
This preseason poll is garbage, as there is absolutely nothing to distinguish the middle 20 teams. As such, my polling philosophy is to rank teams that I feel have a good chance at winning a conference, running through their schedule relatively unscathed, or having a shot to be in the BCS picture when it's all said and done. We'll start with the top 5:
1) Ohio State
2) Oklahoma
3) USC
4) Georgia
5) Florida
Ohio State is the most talented team on paper. They return nearly everyone sans Gholston, made it to the title game last year, and have the best coach in the game at the helm. I sincerely believe that anyone not putting OSU as their #1 is letting recent collapses in title games influence their decision. Oklahoma should plow through their schedule, and with Sam Bradford at QB throwing behind an experienced O-line, they get the nod as the number 2 team. Right behind them goes USC, which is really moot because depending on the outcome of the USC vs. OSU game, this is going to get all shifty-like. Georgia seems to be the flavor of the month, but recent injuries and a general disdain for consensus has them at number 4. Florida goes off at number 5, ACL's be damned. Basically, I expect that at least one of the title game participants will come from this group. Whoever gets through unscathed will probably be at least #2 by the end of the season. Even the loser of the USC v. OSU tilt will probably have a shot at #2 if they get through the rest of their schedule.
6) Missouri
7) Clemson
8) Penn State
9) USF
10) WVU
Chase Daniels is for real, and the Big XII North sucks. Missouri has the potential to contend for the Big XII title, and gets the nod at 6. Clemson...eh...I'm not too high on any team from the ACC this year, and have serious doubts as to whether one has enough mustard to run the table. I think that on paper (which is all we have right now) Clemson is the most talented, but I still think they get beat by Wake on a Thursday night game, and VaTech if they make it to the championship game. Under the philosophy of "who has a legit shot at winning a conference" I go with Penn State at 8. I think this year's Penn State team has the ability to be rather 2005-ish. They have a lot of player returning, but (as Champ will point out in a later post) not a lot of returing talent. However, their offensive line looks good, and if Jaypa can bottle even a little of the juji juice that worked for Robinson the last time they ran the spread, they should be contending for the Big Ten title. USF will win the Big East until WVU proves to me that they can beat them. Speaking of which, WVU rounds out the top ten. I'm not buying Stewart's stewardship. Either USF or WVU will be there as the Big East champ this year - the poll will sort itself out.
11) LSU
12) Texas
13) Virginia Tech
14) Auburn
15) BYU
I don't have much to say about LSU other than I really, really hope they lose to App. State in the opener. Texas will probably flirt with the top 10 until they lose to Oklahoma, and will probably end up hovering just outside the top ten for the season. Colt McCoy is good enough to win a few that they shouldn't. Virginia Tech should win the Coastal division. Always a good defense and good special teams. Auburn is as vanilla as they come. They should compete in the SEC West, and may even knock off LSU for a spot in the SEC title game. BYU is here because they're talented, play in a weak conference, and will probably be this year's version of Hawaii.
16) Utah
17) Tennessee
18) Texas Tech
19) Wisconsin
20) Wake Forest
I've got Utah at 16 for the exact same reason I've got BYU at 15. One of these two teams will be good enough to crash a BCS bowl. Tennessee falls into the same catagory as Texas Tech: Show me. The defense should be good in Knoxville, but I need to see it before they go higher. Texas Tech seems to be a chic pick, but they're experiencing some backlash lately. They're good enough to be middle-ranked, but, like Tenn., I need to see some proof of goodness before I move them into the top 15. Wisconsin could be as good as Penn State this year - and really could be ranked anywhere in the miasma that is 10-20. All Wake Forest has done recently is played really, really solid football with guys that were largely passed over by SEC and ACC monsters. They've done it for 2 years running now, and I don't see why they should slow their roll here.
21) Cal
22) Michigan
23) Oregon
24) Central Michigan
25) Michigan State
Cal? See: Michigan State. Michigan is a wildcard deserving of rank, not deserving of anything higher. If they dismantle Utah, I'll put them in the top 20; if they get smoked, out they go. Oregon was average last year without Dixon. They don't have Dixon this year (I stole that from Champ, who will ridicule me in his post). Central should rule the MAC, unless you believe Jason Whitlock, who says that Ball State's gonna crash a BCS bowl. Michigan State gets the nod at 25 - but it's moot, as the loser of Cal v. MSU gets dropped for South Carolina after the first game of the season. Oh, and Kansas isn't on this poll. That's not a mistake.
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