When Wisconsin has the ball:
Look for a heavy dose of the running game. To date, the rushing attack is ripping off 5.46 yards/carry, impressive by anyone's standards. The lead rusher, PJ Hill, has 267 yards through two games, 4 TD's, and over 6 YPC. He has seemingly been around forever and is the Badgers main mode of offensive transportation. He goes up against a Fresno State defense that allowed over 100 yards rushing to the Ray Riceless Scarlet Knights. Wisconsin's run game could be considered good, and when good goes up against shaky, the result is often 167 yards on 23 carries.
Senior quarterback Allan Evridge continues the long, proud tradition of plodding white Wisconsin Quarterbacks, and looks oddly like Drew Brees. He hasn't been asked to do much thus far, averaging 16 throws per game, but this weekend he gets his favorite target, and probably the best downfield threat back in the hulking form of world beating tighet end Travis Beckum. Beckum was good enough to go into the NFL last season, and decided to stay for his senior year. He was rewarded by having to sit out the first two games of the season with a lingering Hamstring injury. Evridge has, thus far agianst cupcakes, made pretty good decisions with the ball. Now that he has a receiver (ok, fine, Tight End) who can go up and get it, I look for downfield passing to be a little more prevalent. Of course, by more prevalent, I mean more than just 16 attempts. The run game should still dominate the offensive playcalling.Defensively, Fresno State is kinda bi-polar. Sure, they only allowed 7 points against Rutgers, which is positive. But then again, it's Rutgers (-1), Rutgers without Ray Rice (-2), and Rutgers who failed to get into the endzone twice despite being comfortably in the red zone (-3). For all the things that Wisconsin isn't (fast, athletic, an SEC team...) they are well coached, and very (from what little I've seem) mechanically sound. The way Wisconsin beats you is by drilling, and drilling, and drilling, until finally you ask for mercy only to discover that they've slowly drilled right into the endzone for a touchdown. Sometimes (see: Akron, Marshall) it takes awhile for the machine to get cranked up, but once it does, man does it wear on you.
Wisconsin's offense has been very, very good at staying on the field, posting a 57% 3rd down conversion rate - good for 2nd in the Big Ten. In order for Fresno State to be effective defensively, they will have to get Wisconsin in long, obvious passing third downs. When you have a runningback like PJ Hill ripping of 6 YPC, this is very difficult to do. Obviously, stopping him has to be at the top of Fresno State "to-do" list. Statistically, that onus looks to fall on a Freshman named Kyle Knox, who racked up 7 tackles against Rutgers, including 3 TFL's and 1 sack. Again: Rutgers. It will be interesting to see how he matches up against a much more physically imposing Wisconsin team. The other player to watch for is Marvin Haynes, who picked off Rutgers twice(!) in the opening game. The fact that he only had 1 tackle to go with those 2 picks shows me that the Rutgers offense wised up, and stopped trying to throw the ball in his direction.The primary matchup here is the Wisconsin run offense vs. the Fresno State run defense. If the defense starts letting PJ Hill go 4-5 YPC, they will be in serious trouble. If the defense can hold Wisconsin to obvious passing downs, then they have a decent shot at getting off the field.
When Fresno State Has The Ball:Senior Quarterback Tom Brandstater threw the ball 24 times against Rutgers, and only 11 times did that ball go to the intended receiver. All other times, it dropped harmlessly to the ground. The quarterback, he is...notsogood. Sophomore running back Ryan Matthews, however, ran for 167 yards in his debut, shredding the Scarlet Knights for 6,7 YPC. The method for victory here is simple: get Ryan Matthews the ball and don't let Brandstater throw. Easy right?
The Wisconsin pass defense has been relatively "meh" this year - allowing an average of 233 yards per game through the air. Luckily for them, I don't see Brandstater really making them pay - although if Akron and Marshall can put up over 200 through the air, there's no telling what is possible. Where the Wisconsin defense shows its teeth is on the ground. They are averaging a measly 72 rushing yards allowed per game - good for 4th in the Big Ten. Fresno State is going to have a tough time pushing around that defensive front 7.
Prediction to Make me Look Stupid:
In every catagory that I can see, Wisconsin has the advantage. Better defense, better offense. This is, however, college football, which has a nasty habit of taking those advantages and throwing them right into the Pacific Ocean when Big Ten teams travel West. Fresno State has, over the past few years, played good teams very tough - coming within 3 points or Oregon, and 8 of USC in 2005 and '06 respectively. They went to Hawaii and won in '05. This time, they get a top ten team at home, which may be just enough to put them over the edge. Plus this is their coach:
You don't fuck with that facial hair.Intangibles, however, are like ghosts. Just as soon as you start relying on them to be there for you, they up and leave, making you wonder if they even existed at all. Intangibles exist - make no mistake - but predicting the outcome of games based solely on these whisps of fate is bad business. Wisconsin has a better team, plain and simple. Those pesky intangibles do align for Fresno - but whether they actually show up is another questions.
Wisconsin rolls.
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