Masks? Check. Football Unis? Check. Joe Pa get-up? You betcha. Smart-phone nicely clipped to football pants? Um... check.
So, having poked around BSD for most of this off-season, I feel decently comfortable in placing the majority of Penn State fans' expectations for this upcoming season at: "high" on the big board. Why not? There's a lot to be confident about from a Nittany Lion perspective, there are also a few things that I don't see getting a lot of mention around the Blue and White corner of the world that one might go ahead and place on the "question mark" list. How does it all sort out? Well let's embark upon that mystery together dear reader!
One thing the media will harp on that is ridiculously off-base: Well, it will be next to impossible for anyone to top the pure buffoonery that was Kirk Herbstreit's prediction of greatness from Anthony Morelli to lead Penn State to the summit of the Big 10 mountain. I wish I had taped a few of those segments prior to last fall, but
this will have to suffice: go ahead and scroll down to the "What a Difference a Year Makes" category and enjoy.
This year? I don't know. Much focus will undoubtedly be on JoePa, but I have a feeling we'll hear more about the way that the old coach is "opening back up the offense" for his new quarterback(s)... a return to 2005 no less. That statement in and of itself isn't off-base, but here's the rub. Penn State has shown a tendenancy to play several BIG games in a very close to the vest fashion, particularly on the road. Last year that was the Michigan game in Ann Arbor. We've been down this road, but suffice to say that Michigan couldn't possibly hope to stop an offense in the spread formation at the start of the year... surely, Penn State and staff were well aware of this... and instead of simply following a blueprint that had been clearly laid out two weeks in a row for them by App State and Oregon, they came into Michigan Stadium and threw rock...
Turns out we have a bigger rock
Oh sure, it's a bit self-serving to throw up that picture (sue me) but it does illustrate a point. Penn State was #10 in the nation that day and had a chance to really make a run at the rest of their schedule after this hurdle... suffice to say it was a big game for them against an ailing Michigan squad, and they packed it in. Penn State fans will tell you it's not the first time. If Penn State has success with this new offense, it won't mean much if they don't take it with them to Camp Randall and to the Shoe. Yes the offense is experienced at most spots, yes the defense looks to be another strength, but what has changed on the staff and in the recruiting game that makes this Penn State team different from so many that have come before it? That's a question I just don't see being asked or answered much thus far this year.
One thing the media will completely ignore that is integral to this team's success: This team's lack of a reliable and/or proven offensive weapon. Having a new QB isn't as huge of a hindrance to your offense if you have a go-to guy who can bail you out when needed, but when I look at this Penn State offense, I have a hard time picking out that guy. Is there talent? Sure. But what has it done thus far that makes you comfortable pointing as anyone being the "go-to" playmaker in '08?
Something else you won't read about coming into this season:
1. Over the last 8 years, Penn State is a .500 football team in the Big 10 conference.
2. Over the last 5 years, Penn State is a sub .500 football team in the Big 10 conference.
3. Last year's record against winning football teams was... you guessed it, .500.
So that begs a question or two if you ask me. Yes Penn State returns a lot of players, especially on the lines, but the key question is not just of experience, but of talent. Just how good is this team? Who has the chance to become the playmaker on this football team? Who is going to be a guy on offense who will give Penn State a deep threat? Oh, and just one more thing: yes Penn State is returning to a more "2005" offensive approach, but Michael Robinson isn't the guy handling the pigskin, will whomever assumes that role be able to manage an offense that doesn't seem to feature any kind of a safety blanket? At what point will PSU's inability to bring in offensive firepower become an issue that people outside of the PSU circle (aka the media) start to discuss?
Oh, and we'll hear plenty about Sean Lee's absence from the field, but perhaps a more intriguing question is how much his leadership will be missed as well.
Area that scares you as an opponent: D-line. This D-line will be the heart and soul of what figures to be another solid defense. They are talented and they are deep. If the front four play well it will make the loss of Sean Lee not nearly as big of a deal from an on-field standpoint. The offense has loads of experience (perhaps not the talent to match) in nearly every position with the exception of the backfield. If Daryll Clark and Steven Green step up into serviceable roles, there's going to be reason for some of the optimism circulating in Happy Valley. Michigan had a similar set-up in '04 and took two freshmen in Chad Henne and Mike Hart to the Rose Bowl... of course we also had a Braylon Edwards...
Area that makes you salivate as an opponent: JayPa. He's the Penn State Mike DeBord.
Random factor that you think will come into play this season: A joke of an out-of-conference schedule sets up PSU for a run of @Purdue, @Wisconsin, Michigan, and @OSU. Let's just imagine that PSU runs out to 6-0... that leaves three HUGE games:
- @ Wisconsin (a team Penn State DRILLED last year)
- Michigan (a game most Penn State fans are oddly overlooking...)
- @ Ohio State (a team that has somewhat owned Penn State in Columbus)
That's quite a stretch in the heart of the season, and two out of three on the road no less. If anything, I doubt the ability of the coaching staff to put together three straight
solid gameplans, especially with having to travel to Columbus. Penn State has every opportunity to field a very solid football team, but I think this stretch (and really the overall stretch of 4 road games in 5 weeks) will cost them a truly great season.
Overall record: 9-3
Final Big 10 standing: 5-3, pick two from the following: Michigan, Purdue, and Wisconsin. Chalk another up to the Buckeyes.
Bowl destination: New Year's Day somewhere.