Social Cognition and the College Football Fan

Social Cognition: The Basics

There is a concept out there on human behavior called Social Cognition, which is an offshoot of Cognitive Psychology. Essentially, it states that there are several programmed responses in our noggins to any and all external stimuli. We get these programmed responses, called schemas, by learning from and modeling those around us. Our various schemas are activated by external forces, and activated without our knowledge; they are programmed responses.

Essentially, there are two ways in which we subconsciously decide to activate a particular schema. They are salience and priming. Salience refers to the way in which the stimulus activating the schema stands out relative to other stimuli. For example, lets say you're at a tailgate at Ross-Ade with a bunch of your buddies. You're all wearing your Kyle Orton and Drew Brees jerseys, along with your Joe Tiller Custom Mustaches. Football is in the air. A lone man in an Indiana jersey joins your tailgate. Well, that just activated your "Indiana" schema, which also activated your "hostility" and "dislike" schemas. These schemas are grouped together because that's how you, a Purdue fan, have organized them. Obviously, an IU fan would have his "Indiana" schema clustered around different schemas such as "fun" "love" and "why the hell did I buy an IU football jersey." Your "Indiana" stimuli didn't just get activated out of the blue; it was activated because it just became very, very important to your immediate social surroundings. It became "salient."

Priming refers to the experiences immediately preceding the schema activation. Using the same example as above, that man in the IU jersey is presumably primed for a fight, being that he's at an away game, and the sort of guy to approach a hostile team's tailgate. Ever wonder why you can't fall asleep after watching an episode of Ghost Hunters? It's because the experience of Ghost Hunters has primed your "fear" schema. Completely ordinary noises and shadows are now interpreted as threats as a result.

So what does this have to do with football? Nothing. But it does shed some light on how we act and interact as fans. Each of us have our own schemas set up relating to our own preference in teams. My "Purdue" schema, and relative network of associated schemas, is wildly different from Joe Boilermaker's. Here's where things get interesting: Social Cognition is mostly concerned with the way new information is processed within preexisting schemas.

Why we feel the way we feel.

College Football fans are fun to study under these parameters, mostly because they make it so damn easy. Let's take the biggest bit of "new information" to come into the Big Ten this year: Rich Rodriguez. While most of us probably had a "Rich Rodriguez" (RR) schema set up, it was probably never salient or primed, so it was probably not used much. However, with RR taking over Michigan, we now have to assimilate that schema into a much more salient and much better primed "Michigan" schema. All of the sudden, RR is relevant in our Big Ten obsessed lives.

How you assimilate this new schema is largely dependent on how you've classified "Michigan." For an OSU fan, Rich automatically got thrown into the "bad" schema. For a UM fan, Rich got thrown into the "good" schema. This is, of course, simplified horrifically; in reality each individual's "RR" schema falls somewhere on a spectrum between good and bad.

As RR's schema becomes more primed and salient, people's minds will naturally pay more attention to new information regarding that schema. How we process that information, however, is largely dependent on how we've classified RR's schema. Confirmation Bias states that people will attend to the information that confirms their pre-existing schema, and ignore information that casts that schema into doubt. In action, confirmation bias looks like this, regarding the recent payout to WVU:

from an OSU message board:

"I laugh, Now you are forced to focus on the results of the season. I do believe you will be hoping to find distractions the next couple of years. This really provides another good opportunity to question the character and competence of DickRod. He drug the school and scUM football program through 7 months of this then ended up "settling" for the buy-out originally negotiated in his contract? I suppose he will claim victory in this. Hail to the Victors!"

Add in the requisite sarcastic smiley's, and you get the picture. Compare this with an unrelated response from a UM message board:

"7 months too long? Apparently you all aren't familair with the judicial system. It can take years for a case to go to trial. Honestly, it wouldn't have bothered me a bit if this thing took a couple of years. It truely don't think it would have been a distraction. Either way at the end of the day RR either was gonna pay it or get off. I think the longer this thing would have dragged on the more we would have learned about how corrupt WVU is and they would have looked worse in the court of public opinion more so than RR."

To an OSU fan, RR is a classless fool who not only got what was coming financially, but also sucks as a coach and will fail miserably. The new information was assimilated as such because of the pre-existing schema in which RR was categorized. RR = Bad, so only the "bad" new information was taken in. It also activated a whole other set of schemas related to RR, such as his moral character and coaching skills. Likewise, the Michigan fan's response came as a result of his own RR schema. RR = Good, thus, the new info was couched in a most positive way. Both sides took the new information, in this case the buyout ruling, and assimilated it according to their own confirmation bias.

There are two cliche's that have their roots in confirmation bias. They are "You'll hear what you want to hear" and "You'll believe what you want to believe." There are reasons cliche's exist; it is because they are true. If you already contemn a team, coach, or person, then any new information about that object will be parsed into positives and negatives, with the positives thrown out, and the negatives kept.

Why we act the way we act

There is another side of Social Cognition, and that is how activated schemas are either suppressed or enforced given the social situation. A pretty girl may activate a certain schema in your head, but for most of us, social constrictions and upbringing prevent us from grabbing said girl's ass. Mostly, it is because we know that if we do that, we will go to jail. Our social limitations on activated schemas are so ingrained that it is almost subconscious.

So what happens when we take away those social limitations? Message boards are a good place to start. Message boards are the home of anonymous insults; a place where there are very different social rules; and a place of little to no consequences for our actions. That's why you get trolls and e-thugs saying things they'd never say to your face at, say, a Purdue tail gait. It's why they are so full of vitriol. It's why blogs exist. It's the exact point that Buzz Bissinger was trying to make a few months ago. Activated schemas are not held accountable here on the interwebs, and it's up to blogs and message boarders to police themselves.

There's another way that social limitations are taken away that has nothing to do with anonymity. Alcohol. Wonder why it's easier to talk to girls when you're drunk (nevermind that you're still no good at it)? It's because your brain isn't limiting your activated schema to conform to anything, let alone social limitations. Wonder why something like this happens?



Normally, I'd wager that the social limitations of the situation (i.e. I'm not going to hurt another human being over collegiate allegiance) would prevent these fans from throwing with the intent to hurt. Add in alcohol and it all goes to shit. Their activated "hatred" schema has overpowered its limitations. Of course, extreme stupidity comes into play as well, as well as a host of other factors.

So, next time you're strolling along the internet message boards, talking with another fan, or simply assimilating some new bit of information about your favorite (or least favorite) team, keep in mind the process by which your brain is categorizing things. You may be surprised that by knowing the process, you learn more information. Idiots simply rely on existing schemas and add in information that agrees with them, and disregard information that doesn't. You are not an idiot. You are now informed.

While I Was Out

So, I promised that content may be sparse, but wouldn't be non-existent (double negative what?). I lied. I also forgot the power-cord to my laptop, rendering it a paperweight that had to be removed from its bag at airport security. I grumbled. A lot.

And so, the great content outage of 2008 has come to a conclusion [ed: there will be plenty more where that came from...], and I think we've all learned something. Something vague. Something that would be found in an episode of "Scrubs" while a semi-obscure Indie Rock song played. We've learned that even Dr. Cox can find his tender, humanitarian side, by simply observing the hope and faith that surrounds him every day, instead of the death and despair.

Sorry about that - I watched 3 episodes of Scrubs yesterday on a JetBlue flight from Vegas.

Anyways, the world continued while I was away, and here's what happened:

Urban Meyer was a mess after losing to Michigan in the Capital One bowl. His wife would walk in on Urban in the bathroom with mascara streaking his defined cheekbones just trying to keep it all together, man. Often times, he would wake up and stare at the ceiling listlessly while murmuring "Big Ten Speed." He would then laugh maniacally.

In all seriousness, it was apparently a quote from the venerable Fielding Yost that got him through the loss, to which we say "Bully!"

Speaking of Michigan there has been wild speculation as to the new uniforms, and what - if anything - Adidas is going to change. Mgoblog posted this


and this


as possible new uniforms, but Phil from UMgoblue.com says otherwise:

"I have just seen the official Adidas images of the authentic home & away jerseys.

As much as I begged I couldn't get the images (they're under embargo) but they are *not* what is shown in this thread or at the Women's football academy.

I'll describe them as much as best I can.

The home jerseys have a maize block "M" on the shoulder, the number is a little thicker and seems to be placed a little higher than on past jerseys. There's also a small (1/4 inch wide by 1-2 inch) vertical maize strip running down from the collar that has Michigan in blue.

The away jerseys have a thin maize piping straight across the chest. There also have a small maize strip on the back of the collar that says Michigan in blue.

Both have a small Adidas logo on the front.

The images I saw were front and back shots."

and this

"No joke. The images I saw were described to me as game authentic jerseys for publication in a catalog of *official* merchandise. They didn't know the official release date but speculated mid-July.

My gut impression was that I liked the away jerseys- I've always had no problem with them tweaking it a little bit every year.

My first thought after seeing the home jersey was, "And people freaked out when they saw the (fake) away jerseys."

Let me point out that probably 10-12 years ago Nike did an embossed "M" on both shoulders. You could only see it if you saw a jersey up close in person.

I don't know what to think about the home jersey yet. I'm trying to get my hands on a real one before I decide.

I've looked all over the web and haven't seen anything like I saw. "

and this

"Got another look today. There is a *chance* the official images may be available online mid-July. Published images will be available in late July - early August time frame.


Correction: The small stripe running down from the back of each collar has a Block "M" on it rather than saying Michigan. The Adidas logo is above the number."

This has lead to speculation on what they'll look like, and some enterprising photoshoppers have taken their best crack:

According to Phil, the second attempt is much closer. Take a look at the entire thread here. There is a little more info to be culled for those inclined.

Vegas odds are...odd but also pretty close to what we all assume the top 25 will look like when it is released. As I said, I was in Las Vegas these past few days, and stumbled up to the Mirage sports book, where a man was kind enough to print off early odds for the BCS Championship Game. They are as follows:

USC 2/1
Ohio State 4/1
Florida 5/1
Georgia 5/1
Oklahoma 6/1
Missouri 12/1
Texas 15/1
LSU 20/1
West Virginia 20/1
Clemson 25/1
VA Tech 30/1
Auburn 30/1
Kansas 40/1
Tennessee 40/1
Wisconsin 40/1
Arizona State 40/1
Illinois 40/1
Michigan 40/1
Notre Dame 40/1
Penn State 40/1
California 50/1
Texas Tech 50/1
Florida State 70/1

And so on. This, of course, tells us jack about the upcoming season, but for those people scrambling to get on Michigan's bandwagon (no really, they were hear a minute ago. Guys? Guys?) because of that article that came out saying only 9 teams had better odds? Um...better recount that. I see 12 teams with better odds, and a whole slew of teams right at 40/1 which tells me that Vegas doesn't know where the hell to put Michigan, so they're not taking a bath if UM turns out to be really good. I was going to bold out the weird picks, but then I remembered it's Vegas, and they've got a reason for everything. FWIW, I put $20 on Georgia at 5/1.

We've always been friendly with BHGP. We even use them as a witness (not like in court, but like "can I get a witnessss? can I get a witnessssss?) on the sidebar. But this time, they've gone too far, and will pay. I've got to go clean my verbal scattergun, but when I get back, there will be blood.

OPS: This is my serious face.

I'll Take Contridiction for $1,000 Please...

Steps:

1) Boren leaves UM's football team, citing a deterioration in family values since Lloyd's departure

2) Rodriguez immediately racks up 4 commits.

3) The final commit - Isiah Bell (DB) is quoted in today's Warren Vindicator Newspaper that he committed because of the FAMILY VALUES that Rodriguez brings to the team.


There have been unsubstantiated message board rumors flying that the real reason Boren quit the team was because Rodriguez would not be pursuing his little bro, a fullback from Ohio. Hence - family values.

New Michigan Workouts

Every once in awhile while walking the merciless streets of message boards, we happen upon something truly interesting. This time it comes from umgoblue.com. Take the following letter - from a poster named "yellowandblue" with a large grain of salt. While the letter itself isn't dropping bombs on anyone (read: fairly tame), the poster has accumulated 5 posts, and managed to get the school colors wrong in his username. It should be noted that he does have several things going for him in the credibility department - namely the fact that he doesn't seem to care how much you read into it - a friend who is close to the program just sort of gave it to him. Sooooo...right...lots of salt. The letter, in its entirety:

Hello UM fans
Now that recruiting is over we can not concentrate on existing team.
Team is 2 weeks into off-season workouts. Keep in mind that in the past
3 years workouts until the 2nd week of February were basically
voluntary---this team is light years ahead in terms of conditioning.
Some random observations:
1) Are the workouts tougher than in past years? I have been to 2
workouts-one on a Tues. and one on a Wed. Monday, Wednesday, and
Fridays are basically lifting days-while Tues. and Thurs. are
conditioning and speed training days. It should be noted that even on
lifting days-the kids run. The overall workouts are longer, more
intense, more organized, (there is constant monitoring of every drill
and every player)--. The workouts are structured to have as much
competition as possible---either you are competing to increase your own
numbers---our your group in which you are assigned are competing against
other groups. Kids understand and are told what expectations are for
that particular workout and almost daily there are new exercises added.
2) The running is what seems to be getting to some kids. It's
almost never ending. And to make sure the kids don't loaf during
running drills-they are placed in groups---(let's say they have to run
20 sets of 40 yd dashes)---each group is assigned a time---and if every
player is not under that time-the whole group does not get credit for
that set. Needless to say---the kids are making sure their teammates
finish within the allotted time.
3) Coaches seem to very sensitive towards the players and the
"newness" or the issues associated with the coaching transition. To
deal with this---position coaches are now meeting individually with each
player every other Friday. During these sessions-coaches review their
development and performance in workouts-but more so discuss any issues
or negative feelings the kids have about new coaches or schemes. They
are bending over backwards to make sure each kid feels they will fit
in---and most importantly have made it clear to every kid that everyone
starts out new. All positions will have open competition---every player
must compete-no matter how experienced the player is---whether he is an
upperclassman. This has really been a positive development for the
kids. They all feel like they will be given a fair shot---and everyone
is required to do the same tough workouts----no slackers.
4) Early ( I stress early) players who have stood out.
Grady. Probably the most intense player on the team right
now. Trying very hard to show coaches he not only can fit in to new
system-but he wants to play more than anyone. He is fully healthy and
has really bought into the new workouts
Boren. The kid is just a monster in terms of willingness
to push himself. Has to be considered one of the leaders of the team.
He has trimmed down noticeably already---(Boren actually started
workouts immediately after bowl game)---and actually enjoys the running
part. Boren is also pushing the other OL's---one of whom is Schilling
who looks to be in great shape.
Ezeh. He just seems to be getting bigger and bigger.
And is quickly becoming the leader of the defense. No doubt he is most
athletic defensive player (for his size)---and has really performed well
in all the new drills. Barring injury---I look for him to have an AA
type yr.
Woolfork---keep your eye on him. Great kid with great
work ethic. Very fast---really standing out in speed drills. Gaining
weight and strength---a kid who most forget about-could make an impact
next yr. Some believe Boo-boo will be our #3 CB---(I think he has a
hard time beating out Woolfork)
R Van Bergen. Don't see him moving to OT any longer.
He really is a work-out warrior---Johnson along with Van Bergen easily
the top DL's in terms of performance on DL's in workouts.
Stonum. Quiet kid-at least around other teammates---and
has shown some great quickness and speed. Right now---is probably the
fastest WR on the team. Runs very smoothly-almost effortlessly---seems
to be making transition to college and Michiganweather nicely.
Zirbel. I bring his name up because at one time-thought
he was a candidate for transferring. And he may eventually do just
that. But last year-Zirbel felt he was not given a fair shot by old
staff. He developed a big attitude toward Moeller and coaches.
Basically quit competing. Well-at least early on-Zirbel seems to have
found a renewed passion for football-and has done quite well in
workouts. No doubt the kid has some talent---he will be one to watch
this spring.
Threet. Have no idea if Threet will be the starting QB
next year. But the kid is going to make it hard for RR or any QB to
beat him out. He has taken a leadership role on this team---very
vocal---works as hard as anyone---is constantly asking WR to stay extra
time to work on passing drills. So far it's hard for him to get any
takers-since kids are pretty worn out after workouts. So Threet is
meeting them on weekends to work out. I know Threet has never played a
down---but UM fans are going to really like this kid and his attitude
and approach. Great kid---I am really pulling for him.
TT To say he has struggled is an understatement. Decided
to stay in school---and he understands it was the right decision. But
these workouts are a huge culture shock to TT-(especially the running).
Overheard him say "practices are going to be crazy---someone is going to
have to pay for all this crazy stuff". For those going to the spring
game-TT is one you will see a big difference in. If he keeps it up---he
is going to be special next yr.
Helmuth. Going to be hard to keep him off the field. He is a
better athlete than people think. He is the leader of his group and
pushes them very hard. I look at him as a potential captain down the
road and a solid FB and contributor on special teams.
Rogers. Another top athlete who seems to enjoy the new
workouts. Question is-what position will he play? If RR is set on
getting best athletes on the field---Rogers is clearly one of them.
Just a matter of him developing football skills---but a very nice kid
-(sleeper from last yrs class)-who will make an impact somewhere for UM
next yr.
Kates----Has Kates left the program? Or has he changed his mind?
Is he OK academically? Don't know-but I do know he is showing up for
workouts (at least he has been to at least 2 that I know of). Stay
tuned on this new development.
Criswell---for those who have received my e-mails-one of my favorite
kids. Unlike some kids from PSL-Criswell has been a model student and
athlete. Contributor on special teams-but is seemingly a man without a
position. He has asked the coaches to let him try DE or OLB this spring
and coaches have agreed as of now. Criswell is really pushing himself
in workouts to get ready.
Molk---the new offense fits him perfectly and looks to be a
candidate for OC. He needs to work on his shotgun snapping---at times
struggled with that aspect of his game last fall. Has been practicing
(bowl practices)-at both OC and OG---I still look for a battle between
Molk and McAvoy as to who will start at OC. Molk has been a great kid
at UM and work ethic has never been an issue.
Stewart---Will he be the next Mundy (ala WVA). He is hoping so.
There was some question as to whether he would put forth the effort if
he did not see himself as a candidate for starting position. But
coaches have told everyone positions are completely open-and Stewart has
been our most physical safety---and of course a huge contributor on
special teams. Coaches have had numerous conversations with
Stewart---encouraging him to put forth max effort and then compete in
spring. So far-he has answered the challenge.
C.Brown. Again, for those who have followed the info in
e-mails-C.Brown has been one who has a tendency to tone down his
intensity if things are not going his way. Coaches have talked to him
about multiple positions in spring-(including running some QB). Brown
-at least early on-has kept up with workouts. C. Brown is another one
(ala Butler)-that coaches seem to be pushing extra hard.
B. Graham. One coach in particular believes UM's defense will be as
good as the progress of Graham and Jamison in the off-season. Unlike
Jamison who is a very quiet kid---Graham is much more vocal. Graham is
being pushed very hard-coaches have drilled in him that he will be one
of the centerpieces of next yrs defense and therefore he needs to start
showing some leadership abilities. It's interesting to note that Graham
was Perry's host---and one of Perry's issues with UM was that the
players seem to have a different version of what defenses were going to
be run vs. his conversations with the coaches. In any event---Graham
seems to be one who complains quite a bit about being sore---but has
been at every workout and is starting to like the progress he sees in
his quickness. Graham is one of the kids who have visible toned down
his weight and expects to play the entire yr at DE. Graham really likes
the way the coaches reach out to the kids and really likes Tall. Shafer
seems to have taken some extra time with both Jamison and Graham.




Some other tidbits:
1) Easiest coach to talk to Hopson. Players say he is always
assessable and will talk to the kids as long as they want about
anything.
2) Most hated drill Just the running. Kids say it's never ending and
they are basically running with "rubber legs"---and are constantly sore.
3) What do players like the most?---Behind the scenes they will tell you
they love the way Barwis and staff almost know who top players are---and
are harder on them than the rest. Perfect example-Butler-they seem to
be relentless on the kid. Players say its sends the right
message---NOBODY SKATES ON NEW PROGRAM
5) OL going into spring just has 9 schollie players on the roster.
RR likes to scrimmage quite a bit---likes the #1 O vs. #2 D-and vice
versa. We have a couple walk-ons who can play---(walk-ons work just as
hard as everyone else)---but we are very thin on OL. Despite the low
numbers---RR still will have physical practices.
6) Players favorite day (besides weekends)---easy-it's Wednesday.
The one day workouts are cut back about an hour-and very little running.
7) Patilla---still have not seen him yet
8) Jake Long was workout out with kids the day I was there.
9) Shafer sits in on all defensive position coaches meetings with
individual players. He has watched film on every kid---and believes the
key to next yrs D will be the development of Jamison and Graham at
DE-along with RVB and Patterson. Patterson -he simply has been a
disappointment up to now---has really struggled with new "leg
exercises"---was very underdeveloped in that area. He is a big key in
terms of depth for next yr.
10) Just a personal opinion on this yrs class
Most underrated player
Shaw
Highest draft pick in this class
O'Neil
Most likely to play next yr
Shaw, T-rob (slot receivers)
McGuffie (RB)---although he is going to be
shocked by the level of comp.
Stonum (WR)
Fitz (LB)
Boo-Boo (CB #4)
Feagin (2-QB system)
Recruit who could be a big surprise in 3 yrs
Rocco Khoury (may be a future OC)
Biggest position need in next yr's class
QB and DE
How many instate kids will get UM offers
At least 8

What I will be watching during spring practices:
1) Overall practice structure and differences in program. How much
more physical will it be?
2) Individual players. Patterson, Mouten, S. Brown, the whole OL,
Webb, and of course Threet are the ones I am most interested to see the
development.
3) RR. Here is my biggest question. Is he accurate when he says
he can adapt the spread offense to personnel? Can his offense be run by
someone like Threet? This is a huge question IMO. There is a part of
me who really wants a dual qB---but wants that dual QB to be a passer
first. If RR is as innovative as he claims---then he could really be
tough to defend or scheme against if his offenses can pass as well as it
can run. With Threet and Cone the only QB's---spring practice will have
to emphasize their strengths. I am sure someone on the roster will take
snaps at QB-whether it is C.Brown or Hemmingway---but cannot see a
scenario that UM goes into 2008 without Threet as its starter. Threet
simply (right now at least) gives UM the best chance to win.

If you can ignore the formatting, I'd appreciate it.

So - this guy seems pretty close to the program, or at least enough so that I think I'm willing to play along for a bit. What he offers is encouraging to most Wolverine fans. It sounds to me like the whole team is in good shape, and that the coaching staff is really pushing the players to shed the extra pounds, and get lean. Please note that this is not a slam on the "HIT" program that Michigan has run in the past. Rather, it is a departure from it to a weight program that seems to emphasize speed and quickness over raw power. Note that almost every player mentioned seemed happy with how quick he was becoming - not how much his lifts have improved.

As far as the individual player rundown, certain things stand out. First and foremost, it sounds like Threet is settling into the idea that he's going to be the starter next year. The fact that he's developed some leadership towards his team is encouraging. Also encouraging is Grady's attitude towards the new program and staff. It is looking like he is doing everything asked of him. What's most exciting about this is the fact that Grady was an absolute beast of a recruit - and has the potential to be a game breaker. If he has a monster year, that would solve the very large question mark that Mike Hart has left behind.

On the defensive side, it sounds like Ezah - whose play last year elicited a collective...meh...from the Wolverines - is slated to have a monster year. The improvements shown in Ezah and Graham will make that front seven - already pretty good - great.

Finally, it looks like the coaching staff is placing a high emphasis on the "we don't care who you are, you're going to work" route. The final few paragraphs of the letter is fairly speculative (as if the rest isn't...) but it sounds like the coaches (if this guy is to be believed) is leaning towards a two QB system with Threet as the main starter, and Feagin coming in for a change of pace.

Again...lots of salt here.

Snake Oil and Wizard Hats

Is this man's record lying?

I troll the message boards with the trained eye of a killer. Every once in awhile, I find something of note, and pass it along to you in this space. The other day while fearlessly treading in the murky waters of an Ohio State board, something came to light that made me say "wait a second, there might be something to this." I immediately disregarded it, partly because I didn't want to believe it, but mostly because nothing insightful could possible come from a Buckeye. Slowly, it began to bore a hole in my brain until finally, I couldn't help but examine further. The post, in its entirety:

Again, nothing but baseless claims and concocted sucesses for your boy DickRod. You claim "There is no way you can dispute these numbers, especially given that when the team had the chance to play against the big boy conferences, they won." Yet I will provide you with the real statistics. Here is DR's combined record against teams who are currently not in the Big East: 11-18
Take Miami, BC and Va Tech out of the equation since they were in the Big East at one point in time and the record is 7-10. Where is all of this solid production against the "big boy conferences" as you call them?

You then proceed to claim that: "Sure, he may have been playing in the Big East, but he was also playing with Big East talent. Pat White was a 2 star. Steve Slaton was a 3 star. It would be one thing if he was at the helm of an established powerhouse, but he wasn't." What about the teams that he lost to that were not in the Big East? DR was 0-2 against Wisconsin. Is Wisconsin's roster filled with more talented players than WVU can get? If you were to go back and look you will see that the two teams get about equal talent. The only teams that he beat that were more talented than the Mountaineers were Va Tech (he was 2-3 against them) and Georgia. To DR's credit, he was 2-1 versus the SEC, going 1-1 against the Mississippi State power house before shocking Georgia (in a game that I rooted for Rod and the 'Neers). The statistics are pretty clear that he did not take his 2 and 3 star guys and beat the big boys as you stated.

You also say: "He was at west-freakin-virginia who hadn't sniffed football success in forever." When in reality, DR's predecessor at WVU had similar records against the stiff competition that VA TEch, Miami and BC brought to the Big East. And actually Nehlan went 11-1 in 1993, beating VT, BC and UM all in the same season, the only time the Mountaineers beat all 3 when scUM south was in the Big East from 1991 through 2003.

Throughout history, the Mountaineers have struggled to beat schools with more storied football programs. This was the same with DickRod. DR just got lucky that the best teams in his conference left. Replacing Miami, Boston College and Virginia Tech with South Florida, Cincinatti and UConn seems to have more to do with DR's success than his gimmick offensive and defensive schemes.

The hiring of Rich Rodriguez has been widely accepted as a good hire for the Michigan program. After all, he had taken the Mountaineers to what would turn out to be two consecutive BCS bowls, and had his team on the brink of going to the National Title game before disaster struck in the form of the Pitt Panthers. Mgoblog has a great rundown of his accomplishments, which I would most assuredly link if I could figure out the weird system that allows permalinks at mgoblog to simply be "mgoblog.com." If you're interested, it's the post from December 17th 2007. Basically it runs through the particulars of Rich's accomplishments pre-Michigan. It looks impressive. It looks like what you'd expect from a Michigan blog.

But what about the claims of the Buckeye above? Besides the obvious ad hominem arguments, he does bring up some solid points about Rich's coaching pedigree. Rich was hired by West Virginia in 2001, where he proceeded to go 3-8. This can be chalked up as a transitional period, but should also send warnings via fax, batphone, smoke signals, and email to the Michigan faithful who expect immediate success. After this abysmal season, he proceeds to win more than he loses, but lose 3-4 games a season for the next three years. Incidentally, these three years are the years that the Big East includes Miami, Boston College, and Virginia Tech. Then - poof - those three teams bolt for the ACC, and West Virginia is suddenly winning Big East Championships. Brian at mgoblog - who is nearly always fair and balanced - does mention this in his write-up thusly:

Caveats should be mentioned: the Big East got a lot easier in 2004 when Miami, BC, and Virginia Tech took off for the ACC. West Virginia did not depose the reigning king, but rather stepped forward into a power vacuum. And since the Big East is stuck at 8 teams, West Virginia can schedule a fifth nonconference game against a tomato can, an opportunity the Mountaineers have seized with gusto. As far as back-to-back-to-back ten win seasons go, WVU's are somewhere between LSU's and Boise's in terms of impressiveness.

But, right: in terms of back-to-back-to-back ten win seasons.

So, to put this in Big Ten perspective, West Virginia is essentially Purdue from 2001 to 2004. They're dangerous, but only in that fluky way. During this time, they go 0-3 vs. Miami, 2-2 vs. Va Tech, and 2-2 vs. BC. Against the heavyweights of the Big East, Rich Rodriguez's record was 4-7. Then, like Mayflowers out of Baltimore, the big boys bolt leaving the Big East horrendously short on talented football teams. At the same time the Pat White/Steve Slaton era begins at WVU, and you've got your back to back to back 10 win seasons. Is Rich that good, or is the conference that bad?

Take a look at WVU's schedule post big boy exodus:

Syracuse
Wofford
Maryland
East Carolina
Virginia Tech
Rutgers
Louisville
Connecticut
Cincinnati
Pittsburgh
South Florida
Georgia (sugar bowl)

So yeah, they went to a BCS bowl, but they did it by running through a foam party. The team they lost to? Former Big East power Virginia Tech. Had Va Tech still been in the Big East, this might not have even been a conference championship season! The next two seasons follow mostly the same script - terrible competition with equally inexcusable losses, South Florida, and Pitt being the two primary offenders. To say that West Virginia stepped into a power vacuum is slightly misleading. They stepped into a power vacuum that most European countries would have started a war over. West Virginia not only played in a terribly weak conference - they lost to inexcusably beatable teams.

Did Michigan hire this man?

The great equalizer is, of course, the bowl games that West Virginia won during their foam party. Yes, they beat Georgia, yes they beat Oklahoma. Assuming Rich can take credit for the Georgia win and half the Oklahoma win, he's 1.5-0 in his BCS bowls. That should provide enough hope to keep Michigan fans alive for awhile, but the facts don't lie; his teams regularly beat up on inferior competition, and regularly got beat at least once by that same inferior competition. Heck, the Georgia game was almost lost as soon as Georgia figured out they weren't playing a pee-wee team.

The rallying cry will be "but he was doing that with inferior West Virginia talent!" For this, I offer the same argument that the above Buckeye poster offered. While playing teams that get the same level of talent, he lost as much as he won.

What does this all mean for Michigan? Not a whole lot. Given the 3-8 performance in his first year, the transition could be much rockier than anticipated. After he gets his ducks in a row, Rich should probably begin beating teams that he should beat. But what happens when he runs into the MUCH stiffer competition of the Big Ten remains an unknown. His success at WVU has to be mitigated slightly by the significant decrease in good teams in the Big East. It can't be coincidence that WVU started dominating as soon as the three heavyweights left the conference. Did Michigan hire a guy who's record is smoke, mirrors, snake oil, and wizard hats? Time will tell.

OMG recruit update II - late night edition

So. Um. I try to go to bed right? And I decide to check some things, you know, real quick like. Of course I stumble upon this, from Bucknuts. The pertinent info for those disinclined to link out:

"Terrelle Pryor just called me a few minutes ago and said he's now not signing tomorrow. He said he's 100-percent sure he's not signing. He said he's going to take an official visit to Penn State for sure, hopefully a weekend visit, and might visit Oregon. He said he is just not sure of his choice as of right now.

He has had numerous discussions with his father who really likes the way Penn State has recruited Terrelle. Penn State has been to Terrelle's father's house numerous times and had done a good job making him feel comfortable that PSU is the right place for his son.

So as of now it's OSU, Michigan, PSU and Oregon for his services with no signing date set. He could change his mind again when he wakes up, so I am simply reporting what he's telling me.

Trust me, he is not doing this for the attention, this kid sounds as torn up about a decision as any I've covered. And he is aware of the reputation that some folks are pinning on him and to that he told me he has to do what is right for him and can't worry about public opinion. He and his family come first and this is an important decision that he's not going to rush for anyone.

Good news for PSU fans here no doubt."

How reliable are we? Well, according to the thread, Rivals is reporting it, so it at least has a shred of believability. FWIW, the guy posting this isn't the guy talking to Pryor, he's linking premium info. Shady? Probably. Do I feel bad about this? Not really.

What happens from here is anyone's guess. If Terrelle doesn't sign tomorrow, expect a collective "aaaarrrrrrrghhhghhhhhhhh blech" from both Columbus and Ann Arbor, marking the first time in decades that the two cities have been able to agree on something. U-N-I-T-Y baby, that's how you spell it, and that's how Terrelle rolls.

UPDATE: The guy talking to Pryor in question is Rivals.com analyst Mike Farrell, so that clears that up. Also, cruise over to umgoblue.com's beautiful new message board for more verification/retching.