High Hopes

Somewhere, someone is saying "what a stupid title, look at your team." I have looked at my team sir, and I'm not changing the title because it works on multiple levels.

Encumbered forever by desire and ambition, there's a hunger still unsatisfied Our weary eyes still stray to the horizon, though down this road we've been so many times.

Yep, we're going down that road, we're going to use song lyrics (albeit good ones) to convey a point. Why? Because it's apt, that's why.

Saturday's contest at Happy Valley was a stunningly effective synopsis of where this football team is right now. To boil it down as succinctly as possible, I 100% believe the following:
When this football team executes, it is capable of beating ANYONE in the country. When this football team fails to execute, it is capable of losing to ANYONE in the country.

That is where we are right now. For 26 minutes on Saturday, a 2-4 Michigan team that was supposed to be a sacrificial lamb for the homecoming crowd in State College, PA came out and punched the #3 Nittany Lions square in the mouth. They outplayed them on both sides of the ball and looked good doing it. 1st quarter stats? 12 minutes of possession, 189 yards. Dominance. With a group of 18 and 19 year-old kids, a patched together O-line, and a suddenly awakened Brandon Minor, the Michigan offense controlled the football game. Penn State was damn lucky to put up 14 points in the first half. A missed tackle and two bone-headed penalties let a solid football team back into a game at home, something we simply do not have the luxury of doing right now. Michigan's struggles came not from being thoroughly outmatched by a superior Penn State team. Rather, as has been the case more often than not this year, Michigan's wounds were self-inflicted. From the first PSU TD to the game-turning safety and subsequent kick out of bounds, too many unforced errors were made to overcome. Penn State then did what good teams do, and put the game out of reach in emphatic fashion.

Once Threet was forced out of the game, all of us in the Michigan section looked at each other with an expression that is sadly all too familiar to those of us of the Maize and Blue persuasion. Like when Hart went down in '05 or Henne in '07, we knew we were in trouble. This team is too young and too inexperienced and too thin at positions like, say, quarterback, to be able to overcome losses like that against a team like Penn State. What happened happened, the Penn State fans rejoiced as though the last 12 years never took place, and we walked out of the stadium shaking our heads at what could've possibly been. If I could change one call, I would've slammed into the line and punted instead of letting Sheridan drop back on 3rd and 20 from the shadow of our own goal-post, but that's neither here nor there at this point.

Quick aside: Penn State is a good football team, don't get me wrong, but I don't walk away from Saturday thinking that they're a top 3 team, and I don't walk away from Saturday thinking they'll beat Ohio State in Columbus. But back to the topic at hand...

This is where the hopes come in, this is where I can sit back and look and say, "you know what, this team is going to be good, damn good in fact." It might not be this year, it might not even be next year, but this staff, and this system, will succeed. Seven games into a miserable year, the improvement is noticeable, the effectiveness of a trimmed down Rodriguez offensive system is apparent, the adjustments were there, the team clicked and moved the ball and looked good doing it. They brought forth an effective gameplan that cut out many of the ineffective behind the LOS passes that have hindered this offense earlier this year. Michigan powered between the tackles, they threw to the tight ends, they used Steven Threet's legs to hold the Penn State D in check, and they looked downfield in the passing game. The execution, when there, is something to see, especially when you factor in the youth and current make-up of the team. The mistakes are confounding and extremely frustrating, but they are fixable.

I walk away from Saturday knowing the following:

1. Threet is a capable quarterback in this offense. Ideal? No. But he's been effective when healthy and has more than 0.2 seconds to make throws. He was surgical in the first half, and I believe had he not gotten dinged up, would've continued marching the football... Once he stopped keeping the ball on the read-option (presumably from aforementioned dinged-upness), the run game started to sputter because the D could simply key on Minor.

2. We have no depth at QB. God love Nick Sheridan, he has been thrown into some of the most horrifying situations this season, but he simply doesn't have the same ability to move the football like Threet does. Threet with backups in Beaver and Forcier next season is not a bad thing in the least.

3. Taking points one and two, we're in a huge world of hurt if Threet isn't ready to go this upcoming Saturday. Given Sheridan's struggles in moving the offense... and I HATE to be this guy, but perhaps if Threet can't play, do we give Feagin an opportunity? I'm not the coach, I don't see the practices, but I wouldn't be upset to see him get a chance if Threet (God forbid) can't go.

4. Evan Royster is a heck of a tailback, tremendous patience and some good ol' fashioned toughness and speed. Hats off to him.

5. Brandon Minor finally put all of those flashes of brilliance into something consistent and sustained, and holy hell was it impressive. Anthony Scirrotto spent most of his day on his back and being carried downfield.

6. The defense picked up the blitizing and was more effective at getting into the backfield... BUT, this defense still gives up too many big plays (this is nothing new) and misses too many tackles. I also do not understand the reasoning behind only playing three down-linemen when we're so loaded on the D-line.

7. I was wrong about this defense in the preseason. They're capable, and have been put in a number of terrible situations over the season... but they aren't the shutdown unit capable of carrying an offense that is either completely on or completely off. The safety play hasn't been good enough, and frankly, neither has the play of our corners. We're so concerned about not giving up the deep ball, that we let teams get 10-12 out routes at will... sometimes we're getting caught in zones

8. I'm glad we have Rich Rodriguez as our football coach.

Penn State walked out of that stadium Saturday with the promise of an unforgettable season still in tow, their fanbase not quite sure what to do with themselves. Michigan walked out knowing they had a top ranked team on the ropes at home and flittered the opportunity away... but they walk away knowing that even now, they can play with anybody. It's not a victory, and for most that means it's not good enough, but right now, that's what we've got, and that's what we have to build on.

Bring on Sparty... and GO BLUE!

Penn State 2008 (it rhymes!!!)

Masks? Check. Football Unis? Check. Joe Pa get-up? You betcha. Smart-phone nicely clipped to football pants? Um... check.

So, having poked around BSD for most of this off-season, I feel decently comfortable in placing the majority of Penn State fans' expectations for this upcoming season at: "high" on the big board. Why not? There's a lot to be confident about from a Nittany Lion perspective, there are also a few things that I don't see getting a lot of mention around the Blue and White corner of the world that one might go ahead and place on the "question mark" list. How does it all sort out? Well let's embark upon that mystery together dear reader!

One thing the media will harp on that is ridiculously off-base: Well, it will be next to impossible for anyone to top the pure buffoonery that was Kirk Herbstreit's prediction of greatness from Anthony Morelli to lead Penn State to the summit of the Big 10 mountain. I wish I had taped a few of those segments prior to last fall, but this will have to suffice: go ahead and scroll down to the "What a Difference a Year Makes" category and enjoy.

This year? I don't know. Much focus will undoubtedly be on JoePa, but I have a feeling we'll hear more about the way that the old coach is "opening back up the offense" for his new quarterback(s)... a return to 2005 no less. That statement in and of itself isn't off-base, but here's the rub. Penn State has shown a tendenancy to play several BIG games in a very close to the vest fashion, particularly on the road. Last year that was the Michigan game in Ann Arbor. We've been down this road, but suffice to say that Michigan couldn't possibly hope to stop an offense in the spread formation at the start of the year... surely, Penn State and staff were well aware of this... and instead of simply following a blueprint that had been clearly laid out two weeks in a row for them by App State and Oregon, they came into Michigan Stadium and threw rock...

Turns out we have a bigger rock

Oh sure, it's a bit self-serving to throw up that picture (sue me) but it does illustrate a point. Penn State was #10 in the nation that day and had a chance to really make a run at the rest of their schedule after this hurdle... suffice to say it was a big game for them against an ailing Michigan squad, and they packed it in. Penn State fans will tell you it's not the first time. If Penn State has success with this new offense, it won't mean much if they don't take it with them to Camp Randall and to the Shoe. Yes the offense is experienced at most spots, yes the defense looks to be another strength, but what has changed on the staff and in the recruiting game that makes this Penn State team different from so many that have come before it? That's a question I just don't see being asked or answered much thus far this year.

One thing the media will completely ignore that is integral to this team's success: This team's lack of a reliable and/or proven offensive weapon. Having a new QB isn't as huge of a hindrance to your offense if you have a go-to guy who can bail you out when needed, but when I look at this Penn State offense, I have a hard time picking out that guy. Is there talent? Sure. But what has it done thus far that makes you comfortable pointing as anyone being the "go-to" playmaker in '08?

Something else you won't read about coming into this season:
1. Over the last 8 years, Penn State is a .500 football team in the Big 10 conference.
2. Over the last 5 years, Penn State is a sub .500 football team in the Big 10 conference.
3. Last year's record against winning football teams was... you guessed it, .500.

So that begs a question or two if you ask me. Yes Penn State returns a lot of players, especially on the lines, but the key question is not just of experience, but of talent. Just how good is this team? Who has the chance to become the playmaker on this football team? Who is going to be a guy on offense who will give Penn State a deep threat? Oh, and just one more thing: yes Penn State is returning to a more "2005" offensive approach, but Michael Robinson isn't the guy handling the pigskin, will whomever assumes that role be able to manage an offense that doesn't seem to feature any kind of a safety blanket? At what point will PSU's inability to bring in offensive firepower become an issue that people outside of the PSU circle (aka the media) start to discuss?

Oh, and we'll hear plenty about Sean Lee's absence from the field, but perhaps a more intriguing question is how much his leadership will be missed as well.

Area that scares you as an opponent: D-line. This D-line will be the heart and soul of what figures to be another solid defense. They are talented and they are deep. If the front four play well it will make the loss of Sean Lee not nearly as big of a deal from an on-field standpoint. The offense has loads of experience (perhaps not the talent to match) in nearly every position with the exception of the backfield. If Daryll Clark and Steven Green step up into serviceable roles, there's going to be reason for some of the optimism circulating in Happy Valley. Michigan had a similar set-up in '04 and took two freshmen in Chad Henne and Mike Hart to the Rose Bowl... of course we also had a Braylon Edwards...

Area that makes you salivate as an opponent: JayPa. He's the Penn State Mike DeBord.

Random factor that you think will come into play this season: A joke of an out-of-conference schedule sets up PSU for a run of @Purdue, @Wisconsin, Michigan, and @OSU. Let's just imagine that PSU runs out to 6-0... that leaves three HUGE games:
- @ Wisconsin (a team Penn State DRILLED last year)
- Michigan (a game most Penn State fans are oddly overlooking...)
- @ Ohio State (a team that has somewhat owned Penn State in Columbus)

That's quite a stretch in the heart of the season, and two out of three on the road no less. If anything, I doubt the ability of the coaching staff to put together three straight solid gameplans, especially with having to travel to Columbus. Penn State has every opportunity to field a very solid football team, but I think this stretch (and really the overall stretch of 4 road games in 5 weeks) will cost them a truly great season.

Overall record: 9-3

Final Big 10 standing: 5-3, pick two from the following: Michigan, Purdue, and Wisconsin. Chalk another up to the Buckeyes.

Bowl destination: New Year's Day somewhere.

Joe Paterno: Coach or Figurehead?

The great Indianapolis native Kurt Vonnegut once wrote that he begins paragraphs often with "so" or "listen" and ends them with "and so on" because things never really have a beginning or an end; they are simply the continuation of a process that has processing for millions of years.

So, I sat down to write my ridiculously early preview of Penn State last week, and I couldn't get past the first question. It's not so much that I couldn't skip it and move ahead, but the first question (Name one thing the media will harp on that is ridiculously off-base) brings up so many other questions that I felt as if I couldn't continue. I consulted Black Shoe Diaries, the Tyrannosaur of Penn State blogs, to help me out. See: I had the issue the media was going to harp on, I just didn't know the degree to which it was off-base. I have been educated. My email to BSD was simply this: How much actual coaching does JoePa still do?

The answer surprised me. My Penn State Schema had been so infected by the fashionality (it's a word, I promise - ed.) of "JoePa doesn't coach any more, he's just a fatherly figurehead" that I was actually shocked to hear that Joe still knows football - a shameful admission indeed. His age prevents him from being as awesome as Pete Carrol, or as rambunctious as Urban Meyer, but he still has an active roll. So don't be one of those college football fans who falls into that trap; be smarter than that. Here is the email I got from Mike at BSD:

"Joe is still very active in coaching, but probably not as much as the average coach. But you have to understand that everyone on his staff has been there 10, 15, 20, or even 25 years. They all think on the same page by now. They know what Joe wants, and he knows they know how to run the practices. During the season the assistant coaches put together the game plan, and then on Tuesday they meet and go over it with Joe. He adds things and makes changes. Then they go out and practice it. And of course Joe attends all the practices and adds his input, and from every player quote I've heard he is very active in practice getting in their face. Back in the spring they opened up a practice to the media and from this came a youtube clip that shows Joe running around the field and being very active. You could suggest this was all show for the camera, but it goes along with everything I hear about the program. Here is a link to the clip."

As you can tell from the clip, Joe still rocks out pretty hard at practice. My favorite part is him yelling at a player to "pull his shirt down." It definitely sounds to me like assistants have a far greater roll in the gameplan for particular Saturdays, but the Old Man still has final say. As for in game:

"During a game Joe lets his coordinators call the plays and substitutions. This is unusual as most head coaches these days prefer to take over the play calling duties for either the offense or defense for themselves. But I assure you Joe is very much into the game, and he will occasionally take over the play calling duties or make a substitution here and there to mix things up."

The fact that Joe doesn't wear a headset during games is probably what started the myth that he doesn't do anything. This fact is a little dubious, but you can't tell me he doesn't understand what's going on just because he's not wearing a headset. The man has damn near coached a game for every day that I've been alive (that's a gross exaggeration - ed.), so I lean towards the fact that the guy could have his eyes closed and be pretty in tune with the action. And I have specifically seen games in which Paterno will don a headset to start making decisions.

So is all peachy keen in Nittanyville? Maybe not. The idea that Paterno is actually hurting Penn State has to stem from somewhere, and Mike believes that place is called recruiting:

"Where Joe is really hurting us, in my opinion, is recruiting (that's what I just said - BB). He used to be able to walk into the living room of any kid in America and charm him into playing for him. He still has that charm, but he doesn't travel like he used to. I think it's a combination of his health and fame. For the past two years in a row he has come down with the flu in January. When every other coach is out there locking up the big targets for their class he's home in bed sipping chicken soup. And I think his fame really does discourage him from traveling as well. The man can't walk through an airport anymore without being stopped a hundred times for his autograph. He has said it's a big reason why he works out of the house more these days. When he's in the office he's constantly being interupted by friends and former players stopping in to say hello and introduce their kids or ask for an autograph for some sick aunt or something like that."

Sipping chicken soup? Or forgetting to drink water? Either way, in today's hyper-intensive world of recruiting, having the main man not available to travel is certainly a hindrance. However, the notion that Joe Paterno is not a coach, and just a figurehead needs to stop. Sure, the question of whether JoePa is actually hurting the program still looms; they've been only .500 since 2000. However, let there be no doubt that the man still runs practices, has final say on gameplans, and has - over the past several years - put out competitive teams running very modern schemes. He also puts the schallacking to his bowl game opponents, which is more than Lloyd Carr or Joe Tiller could (can) say at the end of their tenure, Cap1 bowl excluded. As I have said before, one of the ways I know it's Fall is when JoePa runs out onto the field. His prime may have passed by, but let's agree that - for this man - his twilight years far exceed what his peers may hope of becoming.

And so on.

And a hearty terrorist fist jab to Mike at Black Shoe Diaries for the input.

Penn State Preview: Rd. 1

Some things never change. This season will be the 43rd season that Joe Paterno will run out onto the field, leading a brigade of blue and white men to the fevered scream of 100,000+ white-clad, Happy-Vally, Nittany-Lion, white-and-blue-through-and-through fans. This blog has, in the past, been critical of Penn State, and Joe Paterno: saying in no uncertain terms that it is time for the old man to move on. However, the day the old man actually does hang 'em up is the day that all college football fans shed a tear, for it is not fall until the man who has coached nearly twice as long as I've lived takes that run, even if it is evolved to more of a trot.

Paterno's age serves as a stark contrast to his beliefs, and irony that is all too delightful. The oldest, stodgiest coach in the Big Ten is actually the one who is most progressive, and most willing to tell you about it. He's like the grandfather who has long since lost his social filter, and just says whatever comes to mind. Instead of toeing the company line on playoffs, he calls out those who are opposed. When his personnel fit a new fangled spread offense, he adapted and gave the Penn State faithful their best season in years (2005):


(Oddly, there are no highlights from the Michigan game that year...also check out "glimce" at 1:16)

For as old and stodgy of a guy as Paterno's made out to be, he has certainly been willing to roll with the tide of change when the opportunity presents itself. He may forget to drink water from time to time, but he's still got a passion for the game.

2007 Season in One Word: Disappointing. The Nittany Lions, led by Senior Quarterback Anthony Morelli, started strong, breezing through three non-conference wins. Then, with all the momentum built, they came to the Big House for that payoff/payback win. The fans could taste it - this was the year they'd get that Maize and Blue Gorilla off their back. Here comes the payoff pitch! And they whiffed.

After a hangover loss to Illinois, they built momentum back up with 3 straight conference wins including a drubbing of a very good Wisconsin team. They had OSU at home with a chance to ruin a perfect season, and inch closer to a Big Ten title. Here comes the payoff pitch! Whiff. Again. It put the Big Ten title firmly out of reach. After one more loss to Michigan State, the Nittany Lions finished with a nice bowl victory that left the fans wondering what could have been had they connected on just one of their payoff pitches.

2008 Tangibles:

Schedule
8/30 Coastal Carolina
9/06 Oregon State
9/13 @ Syracuse
9/20 Temple
9/27 Illinois
10/04 @ Purdue
10/11 @ Wisconsin
10/18 Michigan
10/25 @ Ohio State
11/08 @ Iowa
11/15 Indiana
11/22 Michigan State

These non-conference opponents are laughable. The "make or break" stretch from Wisconsin to Ohio State is formidable, and will determine Penn State's season.

Coach


Joe Paterno enters his 43rd season as Penn State's Head Coach.

Returning Playmakers

Offensively, Penn State returns nearly their entire line, which should help ease the transition at Quarterback now that Morelli has departed. You will see a lot of blogs make snarky "PSU will be better now that Morelli is gone" statements, but this will not be one of them. The kid had some tough-luck losses, but was by no means an incompetent Quarterback. Penn State will miss his expereince.

Defensively, Penn State is loaded. Not quite "Ohio State" loaded, but close. They return two players in particular who should anchor their line and secondary: Maurice Evans (DE) and Anthony Scirrotto (S). Scirrotto was first team all conference last year.


That is a well-timed hit. That is Anthony Scirrotto.

Work beckons, and I will be traveling for the remainder of the week. We'll see if Champ can fit in a Penn State preview, and I've got an interview in the works that will (hopefully!) go up sometime soon. I think Penn Staters will be most pleased.

Content may be light for the rest of the week - but it will at least be existent.

Big Ten Bloggers Preseason Awards Show

A few days ago, an email flitted across my screen saying that Lake the Posts (friend [Ed - only friend, judging by recent events], Northwestern blog, good looking chap) was putting on preseason awards based on votes culled from the loose conglomeration known as "The Big Ten Bloggers." Round one would consist of our predictions for final standings, with all-Big-Ten awards to follow. The impetus for creating the awards was to prove that we, the intelligent bloggers of the Big Ten, would do a better job than the MSM at picking final standings, most notably concerning Northwestern. Well...the Northwestern bit didn't quite play out - and the MSM thing remains to be seen, but cruise on over to LtP for a complete wrap up. Notice that we're not in any outlier catagory - which is good. It's not our intensions to ruffle any feathers around here, now is it Champ? [Ed - more on this later]

For those disinclined to link out, here is how the conglomorate voted:

1 - Ohio State
2 - Penn State
3 - Wisconsin
4 - Illinois
5 - Michigan State
6 - Michigan
7 - Iowa
8 - Purdue
9 - Northwestern
10 - Indiana
11 - Minnesota

A pretty fair list, all things considered. According to LtP:

I was surprised at the wide disparity in voting. It isn't often teams get votes ranging 8 spots as a few did, including Northwestern. I was surprised by the Illini and Michigan State outcomes. I haven't bought in to the fact that Dufrene will keep "Ds" in check like Mendenhall for the Illini and also the on-field leadership of J. Leman is a bigger impact from a chemistry standpoint than I think non-Illini followers realize. For Sparty, I simply don't believe they have proven they know how to finish and while Ringer is legit, the loss of Devin Thomas removes an electrifying wrinkle that kept teams off-balance. That being said, my Michigan pick at 3 is completely irrational and goes against my better judgment. Perhaps I'm trying to hype them as I believe, truly believe, we will beat them in the Big House this year and who wants to win against Michigan and have it be a "down" year for them?

Beyond Ohio State, this was a crap shoot. I'm sure that all the BTB will be dissecting their picks today, and it will be interesting to see how the voting went. I know Nittany White Out already has their picks up, and I believe there was some sort of disagreement betwixt us. When I got a text from Champ saying "rant up" I went immediately to the basement to wait out the storm. I should make it clear that Beauford made the picks that went into the voting, with some help from Champ. So the following are not Champ's picks, FWIW.

Beauford's Picks:

1 - Ohio State
Sometimes, stereotypes exist because they're true. Sometimes, the majority is right because they're right - and there's no sense in playing the contrarian. In this case, Ohio State has, by far, the most talented team of anybody in the Big Ten and, IMO, the only team capable of competing for a National Title. On paper - which is the only thing we have to go on at this point - Ohio State should go undefeated in conference. I haven't done the Ridiculously Early Preview on them yet - but I would imagine that "trouble games" exist at Illinois, Michigan, and Wisconsin. Do they play Wisconsin this year?

2 - Wisconsin
This was a toss up between Penn State and Wisconsin. My reason for choosing Wisconsin was really foolishly simple: I compared schedules. Penn State's gotta play @ Wisky, @ Ohio State, while Wisconsin gets those games at home. The toughest road test the Badgers are going to face is probably @ Michigan, and with the season Michigan's predicted to have, that formarly ensconsed "L" becomes a toss-up leaning towards Badgers. When the dust settles, the most interesting game in the Big Ten this year may very well be that Oct. 11th rumble between Penn State and Wisconsin.

3 - Penn State
See above

4 - Michigan
5 - Michigan State
6 - Northwestern

Here's my rationale: Michigan State is probably better than Michigan this year. On paper. I know that I said that paper is the only thing we have to go on, but that doesn't apply for Michigan State. You see, we make up the rules as we go here... The problem is that Michigan State is still Michigan State, despite hiring a coach that looks like Belechik and glares alot. The end result for the Spartans last year was...the same as it always is: one game within .500, a demoralizing loss to Big Brother, and a bowl defeat. Every year I pen Michigan State as being vastly improved, capable of challenging for the Big Ten, and probable winners against Michigan. Every year, I'm elated at the results (which are pretty much the exact opposite of my predictions). This year, every one of the aforementioned rings true. They should be improved (see Hoyer and Receiving Corp), they should present as much a challenge to Ohio State as anybody, and they should beat Michigan. But I'm tired of getting burned on that - so until they prove to me otherwise, Michigan State will be a middle of the road Big Ten team incapable of beating quality opponents in conference. I'm begging the Spartans to prove me wrong.

Call it homerism for my honorary favorite team this year, or call it a favor to this blog's only friend Lake the Posts, but I am buying the idea that this year's Wildcats can make some noise. For many of the reasons Champ outlined in his preview, I don't think they will challenge for the title, but I do expect them to beat some teams that they traditionally don't (including Michigan?). They've got to get better at scoring points, and they've got to shore up their defense, especially line-play. Hopefully two new coordinators can accomplish that. Northwestern gets themselves bowl eligible, and there is much celebrating in Evanston this year.

Which brings us to Michigan. Here is why I believe Michigan is not this year's Notre Dame:

1) Notre Dame has been mediocre-to-bad the past decade. Sure, they had a good stretch there with Brady Quinn's senior season, but a closer look at said season reveals a lot of smoke and mirrors. Their schedule that year was brutally easy, with losses coming to Michigan and USC - the two quality opponents they faced. The schallacking they took at the hands of LSU in the Sugar Bowl was a surprise to no one paying attention. Every time Notre Dame has had to reload, they've failed miserably.

Michigan, on the other hand, has been good-to-great the past decade, proving time and again that the talent that Carr recruits is capable of stepping in and filling holes left by departing players. When Henson jilted the team in favor of Baseball, and a half-cocked Navarre had to step in, Michigan still went 8-4. Navarre ended up breaking several passing records en route to a career only remembered as mediocre. When he was done, it was Henne for 4 years. The line of skill positions that have follwed the "had success, graduated/drafted, then been replaced with success" time-line is non-stop. The hiccup with an unseasoned Navarre is the best example that I can think of of a player stepping into a skill position and sucking for a year. Receivers, tailbacks, and (by and large) quarterbacks have been one star after another for as long as I can remember. Non-skill positions tend to be harder to judge, but even when Michigan has had to replace entire defenses, the results have been bowl-eligible 8 to 9 win teams. This has not been the case at Notre Dame: see Jimmy Clausen's efforts this past year, or their attempts at replacing their running back who bolted early. If Lloyd Carr was coaching this team, you would have them penned for another 8 win season. Just because Rodriguez doesn't have the exact personel to run "his offense" doesn't mean the talent isn't there to run "an offense" capable of winning.

Plain and simple: Michigan has proven they can weather the storm when it comes to replacing graduating/drafted players. Notre Dame has not.

2) Notre Dame's coaching has been suspect at best. Despite the blinding light off of Weis's multiple super-bowl rings (and the subsequent reflection from the fried chicken grease on his chin), the man has done virtually nothing in terms of beating top-notch oppoenents during his tenure at ND. He came to ND unproven, and is rapidly proving himself to be a bad head coach. Rodriguez may be untested at Michigan, but he is at least a proven collegiate head coach with a track record of success.

3) The cupboard is not bare at UM. When Rodriguez took over the program at WVU, he was working with athletes who were mostly passed on by big-time programs. It took him a few years to build up the base of players that he could work with, which explains his dismal first-year records. I will wager that the level of athlete that he is inheriting at UM - previous starter or not - is far higher than what he inherited at WVU. Thus, I believe that this team will be ready to compete at a higher level than many think this year.

4) Michigan had moderate to great success running zone-left long bomb offense. They never had to get tricky because they didn't have to. Now, with the departures on offense and defense, Michigan has to get tricky, and they have the best coach in the game at doing that. Combine Rodriguez's willingness to run plays not designed around a punishing left tackle with the fact that nobody has any film or any clue about what this team is going to look like, and you get a lot of surprised opponents. I fully expect Michigan to lose their fair share of ball games this year, but I also expect that they will catch quite a few teams with their pants down. Everybody and their mother knew what ND was going to come with last year - and ND played the part beautifully. Nobody knows what Michigan's coming with this year, which is an advantage.

5) We've got Vegas on our side! The folks who are actually paid to make predictions with millions riding on them say that there are only 9 teams with better odds at a National Championship than Michigan. That's right folks, they said National.

Also - Michigan gets Sparty, Northwestern, and Illinois at home.

7 - Illinois

Speaking of Illinois, I think that they will be a dangerous team, but that the loss of Mendenhall is going to hurt a ton. Juice can't throw; it's that simple. If the Illini can't produce a consistantly awesome rusher to replace Mendenhall, then I can't see how that offense is going to score points. Mix that with an already shaky defense losing an awesome 'backer, and a competent safety (Kevin Mitchell), and throw in a dose of suspect in game coaching of the Zooker, and you get a 7th place Big Ten team. The Illini may still have some shine to them from last year's Rose Bowl team, and I think the BTB final vote reflects that shine. The Illini won't suck this year - but they will take a step backwards.

8 - Purdue
There isn't much to say here. Tiller's last season, and "meh" collection of players coming of a mediocre season last year, etc. Purdue will beat the low-end Big 10 teams, and will lose to the top-end. In full disclosure, there wasn't a whole lot going on mentally when I slotted Purdue in at 8th.

9 - Iowa
With apologies to BHGP, I don't see this year's Iowa squad as contending for anything this year. Depending on their OOC results, they could get themselves bowl eligible, and (in hindsight) are probably deserving of a better showing than 9th.

10 - Minnesota
They were a frieght train of suck last year, and I don't expect this year to be much different. Next year, you could see them sneaking up into the middle of the conference given the mildly awesome level of recruiting they've been able to sustain. But not this year.

11 - Indiana
Loss of top flight talent? Check
Potential loss of field-equalizing QB? Check
Last place finish in the Big 10? Check


Wrap Up

We weren't really that much different than the combined results. We seem to be in disagreement about Illinois and Michigan, but other than those two, we seem to be right on the mainstream money. Tomorrow, I'll have a post comparing our little vote to those of the MSM and preview mags.

I object

Opinions are funny things, and naturally you'll always hear that someone else's opinion is just as valid as yours or mine... this of course is not true. I have no problem with a dissenting opinion or point of view. What I do have a problem with is when said argument is devoid of any sort of attempt at presenting the information used to draw out the conclusions that were reached. I am more than happy to engage in a discussion and even reconsider my stance, just present your points of view in a way that has some sort of logical backing behind them. Absolute statements made without such backing fall into a different category. That said, the following deserves a few words presented in a calm fashion...:

From Nittany White Out:
Michigan will be beaten and beaten badly this season. For years Michigan has been beating on its fellow Big Ten rivals mostly due to Lloyd Carr’s impeccable coaching. This is not to say Rich Rod can’t coach. But he simply doesn’t have the players to run his offense. Sure he’ll modify it this year to fit his players, but if history repeats itself, his first year will be dismal. And to the delight of all Big Ten teams, Michigan will struggle. Michigan will be last season’s Notre Dame.

Can you honestly tell me with confidence that they can even win all their non-conference games? With Utah, and Notre Dame (away), the odds are in favor of a 2-2 start before they even start their conference gauntlet. Then there are revenge games away at Penn State, at Purdue, a vastly improved Michigan State, Illinois, at Minnesota and at Ohio State. If you look at their schedule, only 3 games can be considered a sure win, Miami (OH), Toledo and Northwestern.

The 2008 season will be sweet music to all Big Ten fans not sporting Maize and Blue.

Now then, everyone is certainly entitled to their opinion on this year's Wolverines... what I take issue with here is the ridiculous litany of "points" that are thrown out here sans defense, logic, or any identifiable level of reason. All this "breakdown" does is trot out a number of phrases, talking points, and whimsical notions that have been echoed around rival message boards ever since Rodriguez was announced as the new HC. Let's take them in order shall we?

1. For years Michigan has been beating on its fellow Big Ten rivals mostly due to Lloyd Carr’s impeccable coaching. This is missing the forest for a single tree. I said in the comments section over there that I'm was as big of a Lloyd Carr supporter as you could find during his tenure in Ann Arbor. He deserves a LOT of credit, but the main reason why Michigan has been winning football games has been his impeccable coaching? The man was a solid football coach and even greater person, he will go down as one of the greats who have roamed the sidelines in the Big House. But to claim that Michigan has been beating on its fellow Big Ten rivals mostly due to Lloyd Carr's coaching? Certainly his ability as a head coach was a large factor in Michigan's Big 10 success... but uh, there are a few other points to take into account here as well. For one, I think Carr's management of his talent had a much larger effect than his gameplanning or x's and o's prowess did.

I highly doubt anyone would argue that Carr-lead Michigan teams' success had nothing to do with his recruiting, which coincidentally brought in more talent than other teams in the conference could dream of having (save for that one down Columbus way of course), it probably had nothing to do with the fact that Michigan was a better football team across the field than nearly everyone else they lined up with, and I'm sure it had nothing to do with the fact that there has been a long-running tradition of a top level program, which affords it the ability to recruit, gather quality staffs (even if Malone, DeBord, or Andy Moeller were members...), and build from a very strong base. Michigan has not only been fortunate to have a run of great coaches, but we also have been spoiled rotten with the level of football player that we bring in year in and year out... more on that in a bit. To say we won only because of Lloyd Carr's coaching ability is quite simply wrong.

2. But he simply doesn’t have the players to run his offense. Sure he’ll modify it this year to fit his players, but if history repeats itself, his first year will be dismal. Sigh... I nailed this in the preview on "things people will beat to death and be way off base about" and here's example 1A. Sure he'll modify it to fit his players... and if you'd care to tell me how the caliber of player he had at West Virginia, Tulane, and Glenville State compares to that which he is now working with in Ann Arbor, I will happily sit here and listen. Michigan beat a number of teams over the years by running HB traps to the left and occasionally find one of a long line of great receivers deep (oversimplifying a bit for the sake of brevity)... the offense doesn't have to be amazingly complex or mind bendingly difficult to succeed, in fact if you'd like a beautiful example, I direct your attention to last years contest between #10 Penn State and the lowly unranked Wolverines... final score? 14-9 Michigan. Not exactly an offensive firework show was it... and a true freshman qb at the helm no less.

Rodriguez has been around the block, he'll put something in place that will enable this team to play to its strengths. Why everyone is so convinced that because Michigan won't run the "Pat White Steve Slayton" offense next year that they are in huge trouble is beyond me, Rodriguez ran an effective offense with Sean King winging the ball all over the place, and he ran one that whipped the life out of opponents by throwing less than 20 times a game, he's clearly able to adjust to his personnel, but hey, that's inconvienant to this flawed argument. We're all well aware of his first year record at West Virginia and Glenville State, etc, etc, but to try to compare his first year at WVA with what he's working with here is a bit of a stretch if you were to ask me. What his success in these different systems does tell me is that he WILL get his play-makers the football, and believe me when I say that we will have more than one or two players who will be capable of making plays.

The second part of this is the notion that because the offense likely may struggle at times, Michigan is doomed. This might be the case if the defense were going to be of the 2000 vintage... but that simply will not be the case. The Maize and Blue won't have to score 35 points a game to win. Of course it'd probably help to actually, you know, look at the team you're talking about to realize points like that.

3. Michigan will be last seasons Notre Dame. Based upon what? Michigan lost a number of top offensive skill players like ND did two years ago? That's where any and all comparisons stop beween these two teams. The coaching staffs couldn't be more different in terms of both track record and ability, the recruiting classes compared over the past four years are vastly different, the schedules for the upcoming year are different, and the makeup of this year's Michigan squad compared to last year's notre dame edition is also vastly different. Quick name last year's starting running back for ND... does he even crack our top 5 heading into this season? How about their top receiver.... and on, and on, and on.

4. Can you honestly tell me with confidence that they can even win all their non-conference games? With Utah, and Notre Dame (away), the odds are in favor of a 2-2 start before they even start their conference gauntlet. 2-2 would be something close to a worst case scenario to start the season as I look at the teams we're facing... but hey, "the odds favor it"... which means precisely nothing. Nothing in the way of matchups, breakdowns, or other places where any of these teams might give Michigan problems. Utah will be a tough test, as will ND as the first road game, are theses sure wins? No. Are they sure losses? No.

5. Then there are revenge games away at Penn State, at Purdue, a vastly improved Michigan State, Illinois, at Minnesota and at Ohio State. Ah yes, the "revenge game"... this is as true a barometer of an upcoming season as any. I love the argument that teams will be excited to beat Michigan this season... really?? That's different from every other season how exactly? It's really helped Penn State out a bunch since '96 hasn't it, every time our two teams have lined up since then hasn't been a "revenge game" for the Nittany Lions? Next of course is the "vastly improved MSU" (in what way are they vastly improved?)... which just so happens to have to travel to Michigan Stadium where, vastly improved or not, they haven't won since 1990... which is a vast expanse of time.

I've longed learned the hard lesson of trying to determine "sure wins" and you know what, the same holds for "sure losses". For anyone to try to claim that Michigan will be doomed to a 9th place conference finish and a record that one must reach back to 1967 to find another in the same ball park (4-6) with nothing more substantial than talking head sound bites and message board banter is just a bit laughable... add to the fact that it is June, and it's even more laughable. Call me old fashioned, but examining trends and matchups certainly carries more weight than trying to judge a team's "revenge factor" against its opponent.

So in short, we're in trouble because:
1. Rodriguez can't possibly run "his" offense (nevermind that this "argument" completely ignores 2/3rds of the game of football and fails to present any sort of actual attempt at defending these kinds of predictions, it sounds good and everyone else is saying it too!).
2. Other teams will want to beat Michigan really bad... which is news to exactly no one.

How very illuminating...

Michigan may very well struggle this season, nobody knows how we'll look come the end of August, which makes absolute statements about the upcoming season altogether misguided. Particularly when such absolute statements don't do anything like the following: "I think a lack of an experienced quarterback combined with the installation of a new system will really hinder Michigan's offensive efforts this year, this could spell trouble in a number of matchups, including...blah, blah, blah and so on."

I am not stating that Michigan will be great or even good, I don't KNOW what they will be, but to deny that there's a chance that they will be anything other than downright terrible (and the Nittany Whiteout prediction is the bottom of downright terrible) is pretty bold at this point in the year. To attribute said terrible-ness (English is a generative language after all) all to a struggle on offense is just a bit too much for my taste.

Know When To Fold Em'

Earth to Penn State… hello??

I’m going to try to do all of you Blue and White folks a favor, so go right ahead and sit back for a moment and think about what I’m saying here. First off, I must pose the following question: Why, sweet Jesus, why are you not angry right now? How is it that you are in any way content with the fact that your coach is bound and determined to stay right where he is, and cost the program that he means so much to in the process? Why is it so difficult for people who are in the position to remedy the situation to recognize what needs to happen here? Honor the man, tell him thanks for everything, and move on with it. Have the fans not yet reached the point where they are ready to let go of the past and recognize the present for what it is?

I know it’s a difficult thing to do; I wasn’t one of those torch carrying morons who wanted Lloyd Carr run out of town at the drop of a hat. I genuinely respected and appreciated the man and really grew up with him as the leader of my Maize and Blue, it was not easy to recognize that perhaps it was time for him to call it a career. But you know what? It was, I came to that realization, and even more importantly, Lloyd Carr came to that realization. Michigan will forever remember Carr for his 30 years at the school, and the program will benefit from his ability to walk away when the time was right. Can Penn State fans possibly think they’re going to be in great shape at this point in time?

Here’s my theory, go ahead and try it on for size… Recall that Joe Paterno was doing a spectacular job of running himself out of Happy Valley just four short years ago. Here’s betting you didn’t find too many sentimental types when his name was brought up near the end of 2004. Why’s that you might ask? Well, here’s why:

2000: 5-7
2001: 5-6
2002: 9-4
2003: 3-9
2004: 4-7

And then… “It” happened. “It” is known as 2005. A glorious year for Penn State fans to look back on and remember, 11-1… literally seconds away from a shot at a national title… after posting losing records for four of the last five seasons, Penn State came out of literally black-hole-nowhere with this team.

Oh so close!!!

So here’s the question that is perhaps one of the hardest to ask as Penn State loyalist: Just exactly how much did Joe Pa have to do with 2005? How much of a role did he have in that team, and how much of a role did the superb play of Michael Robinson and a solid defense have to do with it?

Since then, the Lions haven’t been able to capture the same magic, posting “meh” years of 9-4 in ’06 and ’07. Perhaps more poignantly here, even taking 2005 into account, take a look at the following:

Penn State is a .500 ballclub in conference play over the past 8 years… that’s 32-32 from 2000 to 2007.

It’s idiocy to say that a successful team is to blame for anything, but do you think if 2005 is a 7-5 year that Penn State fans are sitting here watching this entire fiasco unfold? The sad part is that 2005 bought Paterno time he literally did not deserve. Let’s call a spade a spade here shall we? His role in that football program is as a figure-head, no two ways about it. That’s not to say he doesn’t mean a lot, that’s not to say that he doesn’t embody the tradition of Penn State football, but you are out of your mind if you think that man has had any sort of control over the goings on from an X’s and O’s, game-planning, and really even an ACTIVE recruiting role.

The point here is this, save for one magical run in 2005, over the past 8 or 9 years Penn State has been anywhere from a god-awful football team to a decidedly mediocre football team. It would seem to be pretty clear to those removed from the immediacy (read: kool-aid) of the program (i.e. me) that a few changes in philosophy would do the Nittany Lions some good from a football standpoint. Yet, here is your coach, whose overall role in the day to day operations of the program is certainly somewhat questionable, hanging on and claiming that he doesn’t need a contract to keep coaching. His determination to remain in a position in which he has not truly been effective in for years is praised and encouraged by some, but it needs to be recognized for what it truly is: damaging to the program. His actions are setting up a very difficult and arduous path for PSU in the near future, this situation will only intensify, and if you don’t think this will have a larger and larger impact on recruiting as it goes on, you’re out of your mind.

It’s sad to see someone as universally respected and liked as Paterno do this to himself and the school, he’s put everyone in a terrible position, and he certainly has laid the groundwork for some truly ugly moments over the horizon, whether it be in trying to remove him from the head coaching position, or be it in a new coaching search, or whether it be in serving as a big reason for recruits to look elsewhere. The man is unquestionably the heart and soul of Penn State football and the school, but it is that label that should weigh heavily on him to recognize what the RIGHT thing to do is, and that is to give the program every possible opportunity and advantage to thrive after he has moved on. Right now, his actions and the inactions of the folks in power in Happy Valley certainly do not convey that message.