Is Northwestern Really the Worst 5-0 Team in the Country?

[editor's note: I wrote the bulk of this prior to South Florida's upset last night. The upset doesn't render anything obsolete, but is mildly annoying. Also, this post includes only teams that are 5-0, the qualifying standard being 5 wins - not being undefeated.]

BHGP, purveyors of Iowa Football and to a lesser extent Black Tar Heroin, called Northwestern the "worst 4-0 team in the nation" in the events leading up to their soul-crushing defeat at the hands of the purple helmet. Despite the loss, BHGP forged ahead, saying the following:

"Northwestern is now the worst 5-0 team in all of college football history after Iowa took a 17-3 lead late in the first half, then committed a series of unforced errors that allowed Northwestern to come back and win."

Hyperbole aside, I spent the remainder of the day wondering if there was any way to statistically prove (or disprove) that statement. As readers of this blog will know, I've been unusually high on Northwestern compared to many of my peers and almost all of major sports media. Northwestern does indeed sit, along with 6 other teams, at 5-0. But are they the worst 5-0 team in the country?

The Contenders

Northwestern
Penn State
Alabama
UConn
South Florida
Utah
Ball State

Rankings

The first thing to look at when trying to determine the worst 5-0 team in the country is, simply, rankings. The AP poll ranks the 5-0 teams thusly:

Alabama (2)
Penn State (6)
South Florida (10)
Utah (15)
Connecticut (24)
Ball State (not ranked - 29)
Northwestern (not ranked - 30)

The coaches poll is in the same order, except that Northwestern and Ball State are switched up at the bottom, with Northwestern knocking on the door of being ranked, and Ball State mired in the "others receiving votes" category. In the two major polls, the battle for worst is clearly fought between Ball State and Northwestern. However, since this is a blog, we would be remiss not to include the blogpoll, which has the teams ranked in the same order, except that Northwestern is actually #25, while Ball State is firmly entrenched in "others receiving votes." That's three polls, two of which have Ball State as being the worst 5-0 team in the country, not Northwestern. This, however, is of questionable use because there are countless polls out there, and to say that two of three arbitrarily picked polls have Northwestern slightly ahead of Ball State is far from anything close to empiracal. However, it needs to be noted that both bloggers and the MSM think that the battle for worst 5-0 team is going to be fought between Ball State and Northwestern.



Resume

Let's take a look at the team-by-team resume of the contenders:

Alabama: Bama has the strongest resume of anyone is College Football. They are immediately disgarded as a contender, both for this reason and common sense reasons.

Penn State: Penn State has a home win over Illinois to its name. Other than that, they've played cupcakes, Oregon State's win over USC be damned. However, Illinois was ranked when they played, and Oregon State could be better than we think, although I kinda doubt it. Having watched Penn State play, however, I think they're stronger than South Florida, UConn, and the rest save for maybe Utah and Alabama. They are removed from consideration.

UConn: UConn is the closest to "Ball State and Northwestern" territory in the rankings, so a weak resume could vault them right back into contention. Their five victories are over the following teams:

Hofstra
@ Temple
Virginia
Baylor
@ Louisville

This is a weak slate of teams who probably won't be bowling this winter. Only Louisville and Baylor have shown any life, and UConn almost found a way to lose to both. UConn definitely stays in contention with this resume.

South Florida: Sure, they're a top ten team, but Champ had his concerns about the Bulls early, saying

"Champ voices disagreement with B2 for the second consecutive week regarding the Bulls who reside in the Southern region of Florida. Again, I think there's a number of teams out there that would beat USF right now, and that number is larger than nine."

Rankings-wise, they are a top ten team, but that is largely due to attrition at the top - not dominating performances by South Florida. South Florida, this is your resume:

Tennessee Martin (ed. - who?)
@ UCF
#13 Kansas
@ Florida International
@ NC State

Not exactly a run of prime mathcups, but not as weak as Penn State's cake-fest either. I haven't been sold on Kansas at all but the fact remains that they are still ranked #16, so that win counts in the quality column. Also, the Bulls have managed to win on the road 3 times. South Florida's resume, IMO, takes them out of contention for worst 5-0 team. (ed. - again, I wrote this before their loss last night. South Florida is now the best 5-1 team in the country. Also the only 5-1 team in the country.)

Utah: Utah is a good team that both Champ and I were high on from the start. Their resume looks like this:

@ Michigan
UNLV
@ Utah State
@ Air Force
Weber State

Take out UNLV and Weber State, and you've got a pretty good resume, especially given that nearly all their tough games have been on the road. This resume eliminates them from contention. Utah - you are not the worst 5-0 team in the country (ed. - Utah is now the only 6-0 team in the country, which, unlike South Florida, strengthens my assertion).

Ball State and Northwestern: Now we're getting down to the nitty-gritty. 4 teams have strong enough resumes to be removed from consideration. Since these two teams appear to be the leading contenders (with UConn closing...) we'll look at them together. Ball State's resume looks like this:

Northeastern
Navy
@ Akron
@ Indiana
Kent State

Compared to Northwestern's

Syracuse
@ Duke
Southern Illinois
Ohio
@ Iowa

There isn't much to sway the argument either way. You could almost look at it like this:

Syracuse = Northeastern
Duke = Navy
Southern Illinois = Akron
Ohio = Kent State
Iowa = Indiana

I would say that Navy is probably better than Duke, but by the same token, Iowa is probably better than Indiana. It's a wash. Neither team has a signature win, which is why they are both still leading contenders. After the resume section, it's a three horse race between UConn, Ball State, and Northwestern.

Statistical Comparisons

Given that all three teams remaining have eearily similar resumes, it's safe to say that the strength of the opponents have been relatively equal for all three teams. As such, a statistical comparison should yeild some good results. Let's do a quick rundown of some major catagories:

Points Per Game:
Ball State - 41.4
Northwestern - 25.0
UConn - 29.8

Yards Per Play:
Ball State - 7.1
Northwestern - 5.1
UConn - 5.6

Rushing Yards Per Game:
Ball State - 185 YPG
Northwestern - 149 YPG
UConn - 255 YPG

Passing Yards Per Game:
Ball State - 285.4 YPG
Northwestern - 213 YPG
UConn - 138 YPG

The takeaway offensively is that Ball State has the best, most well rounded offense. UConn can rush the ball, but can't (or won't) throw it. Northwestern, however, is last in every catagory except for passing yards, and as such, Northwestern takes the lead for worst 5-0 team. Let's look at the defense.

Yards Allowed Per Game:
Ball State - 384.6
Northwestern - 319.8
UConn - 314.4

Scoring Defense PPG
Ball State - 20.2 PPG
Northwestern - 12.4 PPG
UConn - 14.2 PPG

Turnover Margin
Ball State - 0.6
Northwestern - 0.6
UConn - 0.0

Defensively, it's Northwestern carrying the torch, allowing a measly 12.4 points per game. With that defense, its no wonder the Wildcats offense doesn't have to do much. Meanwhile, Ball State's defense is bordering on awful - relying heavily on their offense to light it up. UConn remains decidedly "meh" defensively. Both Ball State and Northwestern are in the positives for turnover margins, which is good.

Combine the fact that UConn has a barely stronger resume, and doesn't find themselves on the extreme short end of the stick statistically, we can eliminate them from contention.

The Takeaway

It's between Ball State and Northwestern for sure - just like the polls said it was. Northwestern has the 9th best scoring defense in the country, while Ball State has the 13th best scoring offense in the country. Meanwhile, Ball State's scoring defense registers at 45th in the coutry. Northwestern's offense fares no better, clocking in at the 75th best scoring offense.

Since Northwestern's offense takes the cake for ineffeciency, it is indeed safe to say that Northwestern is the worst 5-0 team in college football.

They shouldn't, however, be taken lightly by any conference foe. As long as their defense comes to play, the Wildcats will be in contention to win every game.

What to do With a Loss

Before the Logic Poll is released, I have a bone to pick:

At the beginning of any college football season, there will be only a handful of teams who have a legitimate chance to go undefeated and guarentee a punched ticket to that National Championship game that everyone seems so hellbent on winning. Last year, among others, proved that you can indeed reach that game with a loss (or two!) but to guarantee your trip you must follow one simple rule: Win. Every Saturday.

The season began with the mighty, but oh holy hell how they've fallen. Georgia, USC, Ohio State, Florida have been erased from the top 2 - all having violated the first rule of a guaranteed Title Game appearance. Gone. Eradicated. The dream of the guaranteed trip is now out of reach, but the trip itself is still very tangible. Each team with one loss has the chance to regain that magical 2 spot, or, given the craziness we've seen recently, slip up to the 1 ranking and play a fellow rule-violater. How they accomplish that feat, however, is no longer up to them. The ranking Gods of the BCS are now at work, and their fates rest solely with algorythms and mechanics that I'm convinced nobody really understands, including the AP and Coaches - both of whom figure largely into the equation (I know that those polls are no longer included, but the various mechanics that make up the BCS still base a good portion of their reckoning on the traditional polls). Rankings, which until now - until the losses - were largely academic, now figure prominently in the actual destiny of those teams who have...well...lost.

The AP now ranks the one loss teams who were firmly within the handful of teams who could run the table as such, loss in parenthesis:

9) USC (unranked Oregon State)
11) Georgia (now #2 Alabama)
12) Florida (unranked Ole Miss)
13) Auburn (now #3 LSU)
14) Ohio State (now #9 USC)

My question is simple: Why is USC not being punished more for losing in terrific fashion to unranked Oregon State? I mean - even in the catagory of "unranked" Oregon State is probably the worst team up there on the board. Why is it that Ohio State - who lost on the road to the number 9 team in the country - is still ranked lower than Florida who lost to unranked Ole Miss at home?

Every year, there is an "insert alliterated cliche" weekend where a ton of previously top 7-ish teams get beat. That was last Saturday. Now the rankings, which until this point were largely academic, start to matter because frankly, the fact that Auburn is ahead of Ohio State could cost Ohio State a chance at the Title game in the future. Based on the "quality" of loss, the most recent poll should look more like this:

11) Georgia (now #2 Alabama)
13) Auburn (now #3 LSU)
14) Ohio State (now #9 USC)
12) Florida (unranked Ole Miss)
9) USC (unranked Oregon State)

USC should drop to the bottom, Florida should be more severely punished, Ohio State and Georgia should be moved up. I don't normally cry out about SEC bias, or that the "media hates Ohio State" but in this case, I think both Buckeyes and Bulldogs have reason to be pretty shitty at the most recent polls.

The fly in the ointment is the fact that USC beat Ohio State head to head. However, week to week results have never really mattered much, see Ole Miss' and Oregon State's absense from the rankings. Just because one team beats another on a given Saturday has never played much into final rankings - USC lost to a marginal at best football team in Oregon State. The media and coaches aren't punishing them for it, so they must still think that USC is a damn good football team. Why then, if bias against the BXI and Ohio State has nothing to do with it, are they punishing Ohio State so severly for losing on the road against a damn good football team?

I'm calling shenanagans on this whole thing...